TrueScotsman
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“I think if you read back you will find that I already stated it was Boris Johnson who convinced Ukraine to resist when all other NATO countries were ready to accept defeat”
Rubbish. Bojo was just NATOstan’s mop headed messenger boy.
“with USA preparing to fly Zelensky out to safety.”
If you think the British marionette dances free of its American strings I’ve a bridge in Kherson to sell you.
“I was making the point that the USA was not responsible for planning the proxy war which you claimed but the UK.”
Yet one more thing in a very, very long list you’re wrong about.
“But the strategic situation did change.”
Yes, Zelensky decided to commit Ukraine to suicide by Russian cop.
“Do you deny that Russia’s intelligence failed by miscalculating the strength of nationalist feelings of the Ukrainians and that the Russian army was not welcomed as liberators as their soldiers were told?”
Actually, the soldiers were greeted as liberators all across the east.
“Are you so deluded that you expect that Ukraine will accept surrender when they already refused to when elite Russian troops were in the suburbs of Kiev and before NATO aid had arrived?”
Ukraine will surrender. It’s a mathematical certainty. The only question is how favourable the terms to Russia. The longer Kiev holds out, the more favourable to Russia those terms will be.
“Are you so deluded”
You keep using this word and yet it is I who is proven correct over and over. This word “deluded”, it doesn’t mean what you think it means.
“you see Russia desperate to retain some of the gains they made at the outset of the war and lost to a Ukrainian offensive.”
(Yawn). Russia’s primary goal is demilitarisation. If withdrawing from a disadvantageous position allows a more efficient demilitarisation then that’s what the Russians do.
“You talk of Bakhmut a battle going on since August with Ukraine still holding out but conveniently forget the defeats Russia had at Kharkiv and Izium.”
Kharkiv was/is not a defeat. Russia continues grinding the Ukrainian military there to dust which is their stated objective.
“A symbolic victory – not for the Russian army, but a mercenary army of convicts”
Watch the video I linked to, or don’t, I couldn’t give a shit, but it shows how Bhakmut is key to holding what’s left of Donbass. The fact that Ukraine has 30,000 troops there and is frantically sending in all available reserves to reinforce the position puts the lie to NATOstani copium that the city is of no strategic value.
Wagner group doesn’t have it’s own artillery, missiles and air-force. All these are provided by the regular Russian military. So to say the operation is purely of mercenaries is simply more BS copium from a simping Guardian Bro.
“I tried to earlier explain that NATO was prepared to accept the defeat of Ukraine at the outset of the war”
It wasn’t.
“but now the stakes are far too high to allow a Russian victory. Global geo-politics takes precedence now.”
Only one thing can stop a Russian victory. Nukes. And then there’ll be no one left alive to argue over the geo-political implications.
“I anticipate the loss of DPR, LHR and Crimea and a return of Russia to Feb 22 lines as the basis of peace.”
Russia may accept that if NATO retreats to its 1997 borders. What’s the likelihood of that do you think?
“How long such a peace lasts is conjecture.”
And water is wet, yeah I know.
“Your video link is to a website that has the description
“I analyze war movies, video games and react to other Youtube videos.”
Scarcely a credible source when you dismiss similar such sources that are pro-Ukrainian?”Just watch it til you see the map showing the importance of Bhakmut to Ukraine’s remaining in Donbass, or don’t, I don’t give a shit. Besides, events are moving so fast there now that the battle for Donbass is close to a conclusion. I look forward to you saying, “Donbass is of no strategic importance” or whatever other copium it is the Guardian drip feeds into your three surviving brain cells.
““Liberate” people by reducing them to penury.”
The Nazis in Kiev with their NATOstani backers started this war. Russia is only finishing it. Lesson to be learned, don’t start wars.
“Have you never heard of the use of a metaphor?”
As I thought. You were just making shit up. As I’ve said over and over the Russian strategy of a lightning strike forcing negotiations nearly succeeded but was scuttled by Bojo. Now, Ukraine will be reduced to a parking lot, its people to penury.
““Odessa? Kharkiv? Kherson?”
Definitely and **permanently**“Can Russia impose such a long-term occupation?”
Who said anything about a long-term occupation?”You did as I have asterisked.”
Kharkiv and Kherson are now Russia. Odessa will be. Who said anything about a long-term occupation of Ukraine?
“If you mean Russia isn’t capable of occupying (or annexing) all of Ukraine, then I agree that it isn’t possible.”
That would probably, though not necessarily, require additional Russian mobilisation. In which case it would be very possible.
“I note you insist that details of intelligence failures should only be from internal Kremlin sources. Hardly going to happen, is it?”
Exactly, so don’t confuse your conjecture with facts.
““Putin fired Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) and put the military’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) in charge of providing intelligence on the Ukraine invasion, according to two leading Russian journalists.””
Where’s the bit about flowers?
“But there are ample other non-Russian sources that he purged his intelligence departments, as well as a number of generals, one being in charge of logistics for failures.”
Erm, we’re talking about flowers here.
“Putin has sacked. Dmitry Bulgakov, Russia’s highest-ranked general in charge with managing its military’s logistics operations in Ukraine.”
The flowers, man. Where’s all this talk about flowers?
“It indicates Russia also has supply problems that you deny.”
I do, because the Russians are not running out of anything.
“A year from February 2022 or from now?”
From now.
“The examples you offer show that commitment was much longer than a year or two…Almost 20 years in Afghanistan”
You seem to be confusing US commitment to its proxies with my projected length of the Russian/Ukraine conflict. You aren’t making any sense.
“The deadlock in the Donbass shows that Russia cannot manage a breakthrough.”
Are you on crack? Bhakmut is about to fall. Then Ukraine loses everything in Donbass. Lol.
“It shows also that Ukraine has to concede territory for a peace settlement.”
Ukraine needs to surrender.
“FT link behind a paywall.”
It confirms what I was saying.
“However, do you think that Russia has no supply problems?”
Compared to Ukraine? No.
“That it possesses unlimited weapon capacity?”
For the purposes of waging this SMO, it absolutely does.
“They too will equally be suffering logistic problems.”
Lol. Not even close.
“I said in a previous post that it depends on who replenishes their stocks the quickest.”
Russia.
“I stand by my earlier point that the West has reserves they can still access consisting of older weapons, just as Russia equally does.”
This word “equally”. It doesn’t mean what you think it means.
“Question is who kept them in the better condition?”
Russia.
“Both also will repair their arms. Again, it is a matter of who has the skills and facilities to bring them back into operation sooner.”
Russia.
“You say it is easier for Russia as their factories are close by.”
That’s a fact.
“The ex-Warsaw Pact countries such as the Czechs possess the know-all and aren’t too far away, either.”
The closest facility for repairing Ukrainian artillery is a 2,000km round trip. And the trains barely run. Lol
“However, with the sanctions in place”
They’re having no appreciable effect on Russian military production.
“the West with a much larger budget to spend can go on a shopping spree around the world’s armament bazaars.”
Lol. So why is Ukraine running out of weapons?
“Russia has only Iran and North Korea to look to.”
There is ZERO evidence of any weapons coming from DPRK. Some Iranian drones are being used by Russia. From what I’ve heard they’re Iranian designed but manufactured in Russia.
“But for you, these problems are not important as you expect a short war, just months away from a total victory.”
I do. No longer than a year I think. Probably shorter.
“But the idea that the entire Ukraine can be occupied and subdued is very doubtful.”
We’ll just have to see won’t we?
“Russia can only acquire more territory to better negotiate.”
Yeah, and you’ll still claim it’s losing. Lol
“Will it include Kiev?”
Possibly but temporarily.
“Odessa? Kharkiv? Kherson?”
Definitely and permanently.
“Can Russia impose such a long-term occupation?”
Who said anything about a long-term occupation?
“Or do you believe they will be welcomed with flowers as Putin has initially been misled by his faulty intelligence departments”
Share these internal Kremlin reports with me. Link please.
“I anticipate a long war, perhaps interrupted by sporadic ceasefires.”
You’re wrong about everything else. I’m sure this won’t be the exception.
“Who can sustain the war effort for the longest?”
Russia.
“Can the West subsidize Ukraine indefinitely?”
Sure, just like South Vietnam, Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan…Oh wait!
“I simply speculate that NATO still can become involved more. Without it being formally under the aegis of NATO, volunteer troops can be seconded from various countries regular armies to give it legality.”
Then they’ll be turned to fertilizer too.
“I don’t think it is likely but nevertheless, it is a possibility, if push comes to shove and Ukraine is backed up into a corner.”
Ukraine IS backed into a corner.
“Unlike the start of the war Western powers can no longer concede a Russian total victory, only a compromise concession.”
They don’t get a say. Victor’s set terms.
“It is now all or nothing for BOTH sides.”
But only one side is equipped to win. Russia. Its victory is a certainty.
“That is not what “demilitarisation” means”
Er yeah, it does. Third of US Stingers gone. Third of US Javelins gone. Third of HIMARS missiles gone. Third of Ukraine proxy warriors gone. M777s gone. See a pattern?
Yet more evidence of NATOstani demilitarisation.
https://www.ft.com/content/a781fb71-49bb-4052-ab05-a87386bf3d5e
Poland may be preparing to annex parts of Ukraine.
https://www.sb.by/en/fis-chief-warsaw-preparing-to-annex-lands-in-the-west-of-ukraine.html
“Internal Russian news outlet have indicated that the support for Ukraine-War has decreased to only 25% – Newsweek”
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!
“It is bullshit for you because you do not read any books, or literature”
I read plenty Mewling Socialista. The difference between you and I is that I know when it is I’m reading fiction. Lol
“What is fake? That there was a leaked report from the Kremlin or that what that report said is fake.”
Both.
