robbo203
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Robbo, perhaps the reason is that the virus doesn’t respect wealth and the 1% are as likely to catch it as us proles.
There may be something in this Alan but is this not also true of the flu which in absolute terms kills off far more people? Yet the official response to the regular culling of the old and the fragile – rich and poor alike – has been far more muted. No lockdowns or cancelled flights or stock exchange crashes in that case
I think the main driver behind the panic is the fact that the coronavirus is
- So easily transmittable unlike MERS or SARs which are far deadlier but affected far fewer people . Models I have come acorss suggest that in time, 50-70 % of the global population could succumb
- The mortality is significantly above that of flu. Granted the 3.4% mortality suggested by WHO may well be an gross overestimate because it discounts lots of people whose symptoms are mild and who have not bothered to present themselves to the medical authorities (the same would be true of flu), even it is only 1%, if you combine that with the ease of transmission, you have quite an alarming picture – 1% of half the world’s population is a lot of dead people!
I notice incidentally that the article from the ICT you posted states that: “Italy has currently one of the worst death rates from coronavirus (4%), higher even than China’s. This despite locking down over a dozen towns”. Perhaps, the variability of the death rate is additional factor causing concern
Here in Spain the number of cases at the time of writing is 2277 with 55 deaths. Spain has overtaken Germany which has 1966 cases with 3 deaths. Why the stark difference? Spain has a relatively good health service – some would say better than the UK’s NHS – and longevity is higher in Spain than in Germany. Maybe that’s part of the reason – we’ve got more old folk here cos we tend to live longer in Spain with all that Mediterranean food and oodles of sunshine which you poor buggers in Northern Europe are sorely missing
Robbo, George Galloway had a health expert on his show and it appears the earlier estimates about the mortality rate was based on statistics partly determined in China when there was a lack of knowledge on the care and treatment of those with Covid-19. However, later analyses of when they had better understanding shows that the mortality rate although still high was more in the region of 0.7 – 0.8%
Not according to this, Alan
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Also, if there is really no need for concern, why the concern? I mean its not exactly in the interest of business-as-usual to promote a panic on this scale, is it? We have seen significant falls in shares in stock markets round the world, lockdowns in Italy and elsewhere, all sorts of events cancelled and public transport affected.
Is this all just a conspiracy by toilet roll and hand gel manufacturers? Or maybe Big Pharma hoping to cash in on the corona virus crisis? Hmmmmmm
Worst case scenario for the US
96 million infected, 500.000 dead
Just a clarification on the mortality rate of coronavirus…
“3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]Initial estimate was 2%
Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that t:
We don’t know how many were infected (“When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don’t know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that.”[1][2]).
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization”https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
If a 3.4% mortality rate was applied uniformly to the current world population of 7 billion this would result in a death toll of nearly 240 million, about 5 times the size of the toll from the influenza pandemic of 1918. Of course that is making all sorts of assumptions that may not hold
With a survival rate of 98% there is no cause for alarmism. Those dying are the same people who get serious complications from ordinary flu.
This is true enough Alan (although I believe the survival rate is slightly lower than this in actuality – more like 96.5% according to more recent data). However, what is most concerning is the response to the spread of the Coronavirus and its manifold social and economic repercussions, rather than the number of deaths it causes . The 1918 flu pandemic claimed at least 50 million lives, or 2.5 per cent of the global population, according to current estimates; the coronavirus to date has claimed just under 4000 lives though this will change significantly over the coming weeks and months.
With just over 100,000 cases worldwide we have already seen quite drastic actions being taken by governments – the latest being the Italian government – clamping down on freedom of movement and assembly. Fear of the virus has caused a spike in incidence of racism domestically and calls for much stronger border controls
We are only at the start of something that is going to get much much worse in time. We can expect an almost exponential increase in the number of cases globally and we need to be prepared for what might well follow. Almost certainly its going exacerbate downward economic trends and trigger a global recession of huge proportions, in my view, surpassing that of 2008
For people here who want to keep track of this development can I recommend this website
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Coops and communes must be run as capitalist enterprises
Coops and communes are not the same thing, though.
Neither in themselves will deliver macro-change of the kind we are interested in but then who is expecting they might – except perhaps people like Wolff – but, all things being equal, I would prefer to work in coop under capitalism or live in a commune under capitalism than not and it s possible that the experience of doing so might actually assist the development of socialist consciousness in some way. There are hints in Marx that he thought this might be the case.
Whilst its not for us in the Socialist party to promote coops or communes neither should we try to discourage our fellow workers from doing so. Sometimes, unfortunately, that is the impression that seems to be conveyed…
Hopefully, the plans for Glasgow’s COP26 can be our springboard. But somehow, and I appreciate the problems and difficulties, it has to be more than one intensive weekend of activity.
What would you have in mind, Alan? Different kinds of activities before, during and after the COP26 event? I can think of several – a mass-postering campaign if this is still legal in the UK, a one day school during the event , leaflet distributions, literature stalls, hiring a van with a loudspeaker, a projector to project images on to buildings, becoming actively involved in the local social media build-up around this event etc etc. Can you think of any others?
Anyway I hope that the local branch will be doing all it can and that as many members and sympathisers as possible outside Glasgow come along to help. How are plans to arrange accommodation for outsiders proceeding?
Hopefully, the plans for Glasgow’s COP26 can be our springboard. But somehow, and I appreciate the problems and difficulties, it has to be more than one intensive weekend of activity.
What would you have in mind, Alan? Different kinds of activities before, during and after the COP26 event? I can think of several – a mass-postering campaign if this is still legal in the UK, a one day school during the event , leaflet distributions, literature stalls, hiring a van with a loudspeaker, a projector to project images on to buildings, becoming actively involved in the local social media build-up around this event etc etc. Can you think of any others?
Anyway I hope that the local branch will be doing all it can and that as many members and sympathisers as possible outside Glasgow come along to help. How are plans to arrange accommodation for outsiders proceeding?
If your predictions come true, Alan, the same question arises as in the case of Corbyn’s dejected followers – will defeat make them more susceptible to the socialist case, or less? Will they come round to thinking ‘we have got nothing to lose by stepping off the reformist treadmill and cutting our ties with the politics of capitalism since the establishment will always stitch things up in their favour in the end’ or will they become more determined than ever to shift capitalist politics in the direction of enlightened reformism?
Not wanting to put a downer on things but I was just looking at the TV news today – in particular an item on the unfolding coronavirus probably soon-to-be pandemic if cases continue to grow in exponential fashion. If I understood things correctly I believe the Health Secretary or some other government flunkey mentioned something about introducing measures to contain the spread of the virus including banning all public meetings. (This might be size-dependent though – Switzerland has already banned all events with over 1000 people in attendance)
Obviously if this happens this could possibly have an impact on party activity including the Summer School. Have comrades made any contingency plans in case this happens?
I suggest keeping an ear to the ground and following what happens..
Let’s hope that those in the sector don’t feel insulted at being called “informal” or, for that matter, those in the formal sector at being called “formal”.
Can’t really see why anyone should feel insulted. The “informal sector” – the term itself was coined by British anthropologist Keith Hart in 1971 – simply refers to economic activities of either a market or non market kind that are not taxed and fall beyond the scope of government regulation or protection. By contrast, the formal sector, which by its very nature is exclusively market based, is taxed and does fall under government regulation
I’ve worked in both sectors at different times in my life as I’m sure have a lot of others on this list. I think it is useful to make these kinds of distinctions in order to put across a more realistic picture of contemporary capitalism. After all, lets not forget that a majority of workers in the world today actually work in the informal – not the formal – sector and this does have quite significant implications for these workers
I’ve been doing some reading around the question of the informal economy versus the formal economy. It ties in with the question of productive versus unproductive labour since according to Marx’s definition of “productive labour” – productive from the point of view of capital in the sense that it contributes to the expansion and accumulation of capital – the great majority of people working in the informal economy (and we are talking here mainly of people in the global South) would NOT be productive in this narrow technical sense. Meaning they would not be generating surplus value
This is apparent from Marx’s discussion of the role of independent peasants and handicraftsmen “who employ no labourers and therefore do not produce as capitalists”. He seems to advance the idea that:
“The independent peasant or handicraftsman is cut up into two persons*. As owner of the means of production he is capitalist; as labourer he is his own wage-labourer. As capitalist he therefore pays himself his wages and draws his profit on his capital; that is to say, he exploits himself as wage-labourer, and pays himself, in the surplus-value, the tribute that labour owes to capital” (Theories of Surplus Value part 4)
But then offers this criticism of that idea
‘The means of production become capital only in so far as they have become separated from labourer and confront labour as an independent power. But in the case referred to the producer—the labourer—is the possessor, the owner, of his means of production. They are therefore not capital, any more than in relation to them he is a wage labourer
Consequently with regard to the products they produce:
In this capacity they confront me as sellers of commodities, not as sellers of labour, and this relation therefore has nothing to do with the exchange of capital for labour; therefore also it has nothing to do with the distinction between productive and unproductive labour, which depends entirely on whether the labour is exchanged for money or for money as money as capital. They therefore belong neither to the category of productive nor of unproductive labourers, although they are producers of commodities. But their production does not fall under the capitalist mode of production.
The point that I am making here is that this could well describe the situation for a very large chunk of the workforce of the “developing economies” – the Global South. For it is in this part of the world the informal sector is the dominant sector in terms of the numbers of workers it represents. For instance, in India the formal sector employs only about 10 % of the nation’s workforce – 48 million of India’s 472 million economically active people – in the financial year 2011/12, the vast majority working in the informal sector according to this source (https://www.dandc.eu/en/article/indias-informal-sector-backbone-economy)
Now the informal sector which as stated is far larger than the formal sector in the developing countries consists of 2 main subsectors
- self-employment and unpaid family work
- insecure and unregulated wage labour or paid employment
According to this source:
In the developing countries, self-employment and unpaid family work are more important, and paid employment is less important, than in the developed countries. The shares of working people who earn their livelihoods in these ways are more than 80% of women and 70% of men in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, more than 50% of both men and women in East and Southeast Asia, and more than 30% in the Middle East and North Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean (Kucera and Roncolato, 2008). The ILO combines the self-employed and unpaid family workers into a category they call “vulnerable employment.” Vulnerable employment accounts for half of the world’s employment, with rates ranging from 77% in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to 32% in Latin America and the Middle East to 10% in the developed economies and the European Union (ILO, 2009). (https://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1151&context=workingpapers)
And this source:
As noted earlier, the informal economy is comprised of both self-employment in informal enterprises (i.e., small and/or unregistered) and wage employment in informal jobs (i.e., without secure contracts, worker benefits or social protection). In developing regions, self-employment comprises a greater share of informal employment outside of agriculture (and even more inside of agriculture) than wage employment: specifically, self-employment represents 70 per cent of informal employment in sub-Saharan Africa, 62 per cent in North Africa, 60 per cent in Latin America and 59 per cent in Asia. If South Africa is excluded, since black-owned businesses prohibited during the apartheid era have only recently been recognized and reported, the share of self-employment in informal employment increases to 81 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa.
Informal wage employment is also significant in developing countries, comprising 30 to 40 per cent of total informal employment (outside of agriculture). Informal wage employment is comprised of employees of informal enterprises as well as various types of informal wage workers who work for formal enterprises, households or no fixed employer(https://www.un.org/en/ecosoc/meetings/2006/forum/Statements/Chen%27s%20Paper.pdf)
Capitalism (and its productive/unproductive labour distinction) is unquestionably the predominate mode of production on the planet today. But is useful to understand that it coexists with what are essentially non- or pre-capitalist modes of production even if it completely dominates and even exploits the latter for its own purposes.
For instance, since the 1970s and the start of neoliberalism when big corporations started to outsource and contract out manufacturing to the global south (where 80 percent of the global industrial workforce now reside) in order to focus more on stuff like the branding of commodities at the high end of value chain, I suspect some of this work contracted out is not just to be found in the so called “export processing zones” of developing countries which would presumably fall mainly under the heading of the ” formal sector”. Some of it would also presumably have been subcontracted out to the much larger informal sector ( a bit like the “putting out” system that operated at the start of England’s Industrial revolution when the processing of textile products was still largely a cottage industry and merchants went round the homes of rural workers dropping off raw materials and picking up finished products)
The “self employment/unpaid family labour” aspect would, of course, be more obvious in the case of peasant production and the sale of food commodities that enter into the capitalist value chain e.g. via rural cooperatives in the developing countries
I haven’t read it myself but apparently this book gives a good general overview of the many ways in which the informal economy connects with and serve the interests of the formal capitalist economy – though the book itself is a bit dated
World Underneath: The Origins, Dynamics and Effects of the Informal Economy (1989)
The comments section makes for interesting reading including this one for the statistical geeks
“All these prophets of doom saying it is a pandemic, there have been about 1200
deaths so far and the population is 7.7million. That is 0.0064166666666667%.
“We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period, corresponding to ~ 2% of all annual respiratory deaths. Of these, 67% were among people 65 years and older”
Recent University of Edinburgh study.
By all means take precautions but no need to panic yet.”Of course, this virus is what the over-populationists have all been waiting for. A plague to wipe out the parasitical homo sapiens from the face of the Earth, well about 60% of us, at least.
I understand the mortality rate is only about 2% though…
I’m afraid to say it’s an ideological choice, and I know that all ‘materialists’ like to pretend that ‘reality itself’ is making their ‘choice’ for them, but I don’t share that delusion
Well, no, I think its much more straightforward than that, LBird. Did dinosaurs exist before human came into existence endowed with the ability to even think about dinosaurs as such? Yes or No? If “yes” (and I would be seriously concerned about your state of mind if you answered “no”) then I am afraid there can be no question of “ideological choice” about the matter. “Ideological choice” is a faculty of human beings and that faculty could not have been exercised at a time, millions of years ago, when there were no human beings around and dinosaurs roamed the earth.
It would be an ideological choice if we decided, as in the film Jurassic Park to clone them and bring em back to life but back then, millions of years ago, we could not possibly have made such choice ‘cos, like I say, we weren’t around to make it!
How we view dinosaurs – and even the term itself – may be “ideological” loosely speaking but you cannot possibly argue that the actual existence of dinosaurs was a matter of “ideological choice”. Lets be reasonable here. I mean, I go along with the drift of what youre basically saying – that science like any other field of human endeavour is broadly ideological in the sense that it is not, and can never be, “value free”. But I think you are going too far with your argument and overstepping the mark.
Unwittingly or not you seem to me to be substituting for, what you call Marx’s “idealism-materialism”, just pure idealism with this line of argument that nothing can exist without humans thinking of it when what you really mean to say is that the idea of something existing cannot exist without humans thinking of it. Which is a truism…..
