Dave B
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As matt is here might try this?
professor Knut
looking much more relaxed that last time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARTf4bpiXuI
and from …………
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI
offguardian
and
globalresearch
I know it is patchy
Are collecting sceptic material.
This is from the Los Alamos people in the US
….a doubling time of 2.3–3.3 days), suggesting a much faster rate of spread than initially measured. This finding would have important implications for forecasting epidemic trajectories and the effect on healthcare systems as well as for evaluating the effectiveness of intervention strategies.
We found R<sub>0</sub> is likely to be 5.7 given our current state of knowledge, with a broad 95% CI (3.8–8.9). Among many factors, the lack of awareness of this new pathogen and the Lunar New Year travel and gathering in early and mid-January 2020 might or might not play a role in the high R<sub>0</sub>. A recent study based on structural analysis of the virus particles suggests SARS-CoV-2 has a much higher affinity to the receptor needed for cell entry than the 2003 SARS virus (21), providing a molecular basis for the high infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.,,,,,
Blah blah
Just seen a extract of Sunetra’s paper !!!!
one of my Girl computer programmer friends from India asked me an hour ago how she was getting along so just pulled it out; honestly!
R0 value of 5.7 ; fucking hell!
95% confidence limit of 3.8–8.9 !!!!
and double fucking hell!!!!!
serial interval of 6–9 days!!!!
Actually though not far from my boat
R0 of 2
serial interval of 3 days
as it turns out.
Probably runs differently on boats.
the bar is set pretty low for guesstimates and I can not write computer programmes.
Hi Matt can you please keep these bastards off my back.
I was, not because I asked but was strongly advised to, undergoing NHS acute post traumatic stress disorder treatment as of last month that was cancelled and postponed.
My condition and cause etc is sort of connected to this subject.
This complaining about my font size and formatting is like being on Revleft again when I was creaming the Leninist with Robbo.
nothing to do with the almost dying of influenza in 6 months earlier that was almost fun.
The ONS week ending apr 3 april is just in.
There was a real spike in above average deaths for that week,; I must admit a bigger one than I expected.
However total deaths for this year to that date was about 166,000
Compared to about 175,000 for 2018
So still 9,000 less than 2018.
It is conceivable that this might in a few weeks and by end of year just overtake 2018 ;
All the evidence from current data; from here and elsewhere suggests that it has just peaked here in the UK.
There are some serious concerns about this ONS data now.
Several days ago I emailed ONS asking whether there would be a double entry into covid and respiratory categories.
They responded very quickly and gave be a bit of a confusing techno babble answer which convinced me the answer was no.
Now there is this!
Note: Deaths could possibly be counted in both causes presented. If a death had an underlying respiratory cause and a mention of COVID-19 then it would appear in both counts.
Which is clear enough now ;but not what they said before.
I sent another one recently asking about double entry of covid deaths into total deaths.
I got another to me ambivalent answer that looked a like the answer to the first question.
[That took longer I got an automated reply first saying they were now very busy.]
I was convinced yesterday however that they the answer was no.
I am not sure now.
Sweden with no lockdown or very limited ‘lockdown’ has ended its covid “crisis” .
2020 coronavirus pandemic in Sweden
It looks very similar to Denmark although I haven’t done a detailed analysis.
A far left believer told me it was probably due to genetic reasons !
There had been of lot of concern before all this about WHO re the increasing amounts of private funding and the current head who has a murky past and I think is the first head who is not a medical doctor.
It is a very cluttered and swamped area particularly recently and is now very difficult to research.
As are speculations about what and how it has happened.
The non political sceptical scientists are more interesting to stay grounded.
There was a interesting youtube from him 13 march which has had 2.2 million views for what it matters.
He seems to be getting the Julien Assange and Jeremy Corbyn treatment so he is a rapist anti-Semite fascist etc etc.
How Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg sees the current Corona pandemic.
Below you will find regular, but not daily, updates on medical and political developments.
April 12, 2020
New studies
Stanford professor of medicine John Ioannidis concludes in a new study that the risk of death from Covid19 for people under 65 years of age, even in global „hotspots“, is equivalent to the risk of a fatal car accident for daily commuters driving between 9 and 400 miles.
In a serological pilot study, the German virologist Hendrick Streeck comes to the interim result that the lethality of Covid19 is at 0.37% and the mortality (based on the total population) at 0.06%. These values are about ten times lower than those of the WHO and about five times lower than those of Johns Hopkins University. Other virologists critized the study, however.
A Danish study with 1500 blood donors found that the lethality of Covid19 is only 1.6 per thousand, i.e. more than 20 times lower than originally assumed by the WHO and thus in the range of a strong (pandemic) influenza. At the same time Denmark has decided to reopen schools and kindergartens next week.
A serological study in the US state of Colorado comes to the preliminary conclusion that the lethality of Covid19 has been overestimated by a factor of 5 to a factor of 20 and is likely to be in the range between normal and pandemic influenza.
A study conducted by the Medical University of Vienna concluded that the age and risk profile of Covid19 deaths is similar to normal mortality.
A study in the Journal of Medical Virology concludes that the internationally used coronavirus test is unreliable: In addition to the already known problem of false positive results, there is also a „potentially high“ rate of false negative results, i.e. the test does not respond even in symptomatic individuals, while in other patients it does respond once and then again not. This makes it more difficult to exclude other flu-like illnesses.
A Swiss biophysicist has for the first time evaluated and graphically displayed the rate of positive tests in the US, Germany and Switzerland. The result shows that the positive rate in these countries is increasing only slightly and not exponentially.
Dr. Daniel Jeanmonod, emeritus Swiss professor of physiology and neurosurgery, recommends in an analysis: „Think deep, do good science, and do not panic!„
US researchers conclude that local air pollution greatly increases the risk of death from Covid19. This confirms earlier studies from Italy and China.
The WHO concluded at the end of March that, contrary to earlier assumptions, Covid19 is not transmitted by aerosols („through the air“). Transmission mainly takes place through direct contact or by droplet infection (coughing, sneezing).
The German-American epidemiology professor Knut Wittkowski argues in a new interview that the Covid19 epidemic is already declining or even „already over“ in many countries. The curfews had come too late and had been counterproductive, Wittkowski argues.
European Mortality Monitoring
European mortality monitoring now shows a clear projected excess mortality in the over-65 age group in several European countries. In some countries, however, including Germany and Austria, mortality in this age group is still in the normal range (or even below).
The question remains open as to whether the partially increased mortality is due to the coronavirus alone or also due to the sometimes drastic measures taken (e.g. isolation, stress, cancelled operations, etc.), and whether mortality will still be increased in the annual view.
Switzerland
According to the latest report of the Federal Office of Public Health, the median age of test-positive deceased is now 84 years.
A study by ETH Zurich found that the infection rate in Switzerland fell to a stable value of 1 several days before the „lockdown“, presumably due to general hygiene and everyday measures. If this result is correct, it would fundamentally question the sense of a „lockdown“. (About the study)
The Swiss magazine Infosperber criticizes the information policy of authorities and media: „Instead of informing, authorities conduct a PR campaign„. Misleading figures and graphics are used to spread at least partly unjustified fear.
The Swiss consumer protection magazine Ktipp also criticises the information policy and media reporting: „Authorities provide misleading information„.
A Swiss researcher has analysed the latest Covid19 report of the Federal Office of Public Health and comes to a very critical conclusion: the report is „scientifically unbalanced, patronising and misleading“. In consideration of the facts, the measures taken by authorities are „irresponsible and spreading fear“.
In an open letter to the Swiss Minister of Health, Swiss doctors speak of a „discrepancy between the threat scenario, which has been fuelled above all by the media, and our reality. The Covid19 cases observed in the general population were few and mostly mild, but „anxiety disorders and panic attacks“ are on the increase in the population and many patients no longer dare to come to important examination appointments. „And this in connection with a virus whose dangerousness, according to our perception, exists in Switzerland only in the media and in our heads.“
Due to the very low patient workload, several clinics in Switzerland and Germany have now had to announce short-time work. The decrease in patients is up to 80%.
The Swiss physician Dr. Paul Robert Vogt has written a highly shared article on Covid19. He criticizes a „sensationalistic press“, but also warns that this is not an „ordinary flu“. However, the physician is wrong in some points: lethality rate and median age are very much key variables, differentiation between with/by coronavirus is essential, respiratory masks and respirators are unsuitable in many cases (see below), and curfews are a questionable and possibly counterproductive measure.
Germany and Austria
In a paper, German health experts criticise the crisis policy of the Federal Government. They speak of long-term damage to the population caused by the partial shutdown. The figures published by the RKI were „only of limited significance“.
In a statement, the Federal Association of German Pathologists demands that there must be autopsies of „corona deaths“ (in order to determine the true cause of death) and thus explicitly contradicts „the recommendation of the Robert Koch Institute“, which spoke out against autopsies, allegedly because they were too dangerous.
Dr. Martin Sprenger resigned his position in the Corona Expert Council of the Austrian Ministry of Health in order to „regain his civil and scientific freedom of opinion“. Dr. Sprenger previously criticized, among other things, that the government did not sufficiently differentiate the risk of the virus for different population groups and took too sweeping measures: „We must be careful that the loss of healthy life years due to inadequate care for other acute and chronic diseases is not a factor of 10 times higher than the loss of healthy life years caused by COVID-19“.
In a German nursing home, an 84-year-old man tested positive for Covid19, after which the entire home was quarantined and mass tests were conducted. The initial test result later turned out to be false, however.
Scandinavia
The Norwegian Medical Association writes in an open letter to the Minister of Health that they are concerned that the measures taken could be more dangerous than the virus, as normal patients are no longer being examined and treated.
A Swedish author explains in the British Spectator: „It is not Sweden that is conducting a mass experiment. It is all other countries that are doing it.“
Professor Ansgar Lohse, Director at the Hamburg University Hospital, explains in an interview: „In my opinion, the Swedish measures are the most rational in the world. Of course, the question arises whether this can be kept up psychologically. Initially, the Swedes have to reckon with significantly more deaths, but in the medium to long term these will then be significantly reduced. The bill will be paid in a year – if the Swedes can hold out. Unfortunately, the fear of the virus often forces politicians to take actions that are not necessarily reasonable. Politics is driven also by the images in the media.“
According to Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, Stockholm may now have reached a „plateau“ with regard to Covid infections. (More news about Sweden)
US and Asia
In the US, the authorities now also recommend that all test-positive deaths and even suspect cases without a positive test result be registered as „Covid deaths“. An American physician and state senator from Minnesota declared that this was tantamount to manipulation. Furthermore, there would be financial incentives for hospitals to declare patients as Covid19 patients. (Some humour on this topic).
A Covid19 field hospital near Seattle in Washington State was closed after only three days without admitting any patients. This is reminiscent of the hospitals built at short notice near Wuhan, which were also mostly under-utilized or even remained empty and were then dismantled after a short time.
Numerous media reported on alleged „corona mass graves“ on Hart Island near New York. These reports are misleading in two respects: firstly, Hart Island has long been one of the best-known „cemeteries of the poor“ in the US, and secondly the mayor of New York declared that no mass graves are planned, but that „unclaimed“ deceased (i.e. without relatives) are to be buried on Hart Island.
One of the leading Indian epidemiologists declared, „We cannot run away to the moon“ and recommended the rapid development of a natural immunity in the population.
Northern Italy
It is true that two major vaccination campaigns against influenza and meningococcus were carried out in Lombardy in the months immediately preceding the outbreak of Covid19, notably in the later hotspots of Bergamo and Brescia. Although it is theoretically possible that such vaccinations could interact with coronavirus infections, such a possibility has not been established at present.
It is also true that a high asbestos exposure was present in northern Italy in the past, which increases the risk of cancerous lung disease. But here again, there is no direct connection with Covid19.
Nevertheless, in general it is true that the lung health of the population in northern Italy has been affected for a long time by high levels of air pollution and other detrimental factors, making it particularly susceptible to respiratory diseases.
smog (NO2) in Northern Italy in February 2020 (ESA)
Nobody is suggessting that Bat flu hysteria case is on the same quantitative level as the Swine flu hysteria.
It was a qualitative comparison.
If you do not know that the difference is I can explain it to later?
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
As the pandemic status of the outbreak was declared, media attention was immense, with front page headlines, constant news updates and top story status as scientists and the media tried to understand the potential threat posed by the virus. During the summer of 2009, predictions from scientists and the then chief medical officer for England, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, suggested that, as a ‘worst case’ scenario, 30% of the UK population could be infected by the A/H1N1 virus, with 65 000 killed. The ‘best case’ scenario was given as 5% of the population contracting the virus, resulting in 3100 deaths.<sup>5</sup> Vaccine manufacturers were urgently developing a vaccine in preparation for the worst case and the government secured large quantities to immunise the British population. The strategy was to target the vaccination programme at those at greatest risk from A/H1N1, including people with underlying chronic health problems, pregnant women and young children, with a plan to roll it out later to the remaining population.
By the spring of 2010 mortality data demonstrated that swine flu had been less lethal than feared and case death rates compared favourably with previous influenza pandemics,<sup>6</sup> accounting for less than 500 deaths in the UK.<sup>7</sup> The large disparity between predicted and actual rates became apparent and rendered a mass vaccination programme unnecessary, leaving the government with millions of doses of surplus vaccines (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8448080.stm). This lead commentators to speculate whether we were ‘now entering the recrimination phase searching for scapegoats…’<sup>8</sup> and to question the role that the WHO, pharmaceutical companies, scientists, the government and the media had played in ‘over-hyping the pandemic’.<sup>7</sup> <sup>9</sup> <sup>10</sup>
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3171979/
I do not accept death from covid is the same as death with ; PERIOD.
The rate of transmission of typical flu appears to be very different from this coronavirus.
The Theodore Roosevelt case is going to be really interesting at the moment having looked at the mumbers and dates it is probably thaat patient zeo appeared on the ship at the beginning of march , from a incoming flight , assuming the first 10 cases or so were asymptomatic.
Transfering that rate of transmission etc to the UK and an actual patient Zero in the UK about mid January etc.
It look like Sunitra Gupta is correct and we already must have millions of cases in the UK.
The best fatality rate calculation was done by Iceland after they record their second death.
The numbers were fairly easy to remember.
3000 random samples from the population tested.
1% of that sample had it
Population of Iceland is about 350,000
So 3500 cases
That gives you a case fatality rate of 0.05%
That was around the beginning of april and there are now 8.
The number of actual case will now be at the very least 6% by any bodies model.
Again that still puts the case fatality rate at below 0.05%.
Iceland has or had one of the highest per capita testing what they did was what exactly everybody else should have done as experts have said.
“It may well be that without the pressure of having to drag their bones out of bed every moring and go to work, some people are much happier having the chance to have a lie in, get some well deserved rest and enjoy a few box sets. Incidentally and in contrast”
How can you be so callous and self centred ?
We are not talking about you and me we are talking about the 2 million precariat formerly on minimum wage, now with no income, no welfare and can’t afford to pay the rent of electricity bills.
I have got two posts with links and embedded hypolinks queued
there have been some really interesting developments that are in the second.
And
USS theodore Roosevelt data is quite fascinating looks
like Sunitra Gupta is correct and something like 50% of the uk population has it.
it maps well onto the Diamond Princess data.
it is now over in Sweden which had no lockdown from data in today.
Research article
Open Access
Public views of the uk media and government reaction to the 2009 swine flu pandemic
BMC Public Health volume 10, Article number: 697 (2010)
Aims and scope
BMC Public Health is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on the epidemiology of disease and the understanding of all aspects of public health. The journal has a special focus on the social determinants of health, the environmental, behavioral, and occupational correlates of health and disease, and the impact of health policies, practices and interventions on the community.
In the summer of 2009 UK newsprint coverage was at its height, coinciding with the first wave in swine flu cases. (Hilton, in submission) But by autumn 2009, despite a second surge in cases, swine flu was no longer a top news story. In October the swine flu vaccination programme commenced in the UK, first targeting those deemed to be at greatest risk, with the plan of rolling out the programme to the remaining population in the coming months. As the winter progressed it became evident that the virus was not as virulent as first predicted and the stockpile of vaccines would not be necessary, leading to some accusations of “over-hyping the pandemic” [7, 8]. By the spring of 2010 mortality data demonstrated that swine flu had been less lethal than first feared and case fatality rates compared favourably with previous influenza pandemics, [9] accounting for less than 500 deaths in the UK [10] and 18,000 worldwide [11]. On the 10<sup>th</sup> of August 2010, 14 months after WHO declared the pandemic, the Director-General of WHO announced the pandemic officially over.
Suicides 2019
New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the number of people taking their own lives in Britain jumped to a record high in 4Q19, ….
ONS recorded 1,413 suicides for 4Q19, compared with just 1,130 over the same period in 2017, resulting in a massive 25% increase.
The rise in suicides come months before the country was thrown into a pandemic
The Institute for Employment Studies estimates that 1.5 to 2 million people have just lost their jobs across the country in recent weeks due to virus-related shutdowns. An economic depression is unfolding across the country:
That is an extra 1200 per year without lockdown!
ONS;
….We saw a significant increase in the rate of deaths registered as suicide last year which has changed a trend of continuous decline since 2013. While the exact reasons for this are unknown, the latest data show that this was largely driven by an increase among men who have continued to be most at risk of dying by suicide. In recent years, there have also been increases in the rate among young adults, with females under 25 reaching the highest rate on record for their age group…..
Public views of the uk media and government reaction to the 2009 swine flu
Research article
Open Access
15 november 2010
Public views of the uk media and government reaction to the 2009 swine flu pandemic
BMC Public Health
volume 10, Article number: 697 (2010)
Aims and scope
BMC Public Health is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on the epidemiology of disease and the understanding of all aspects of public health. The journal has a special focus on the social determinants of health, the environmental, behavioral, and occupational correlates of health and disease, and the impact of health policies, practices and interventions on the community.
In the summer of 2009 UK newsprint coverage was at its height, coinciding with the first wave in swine flu cases. (Hilton, in submission) But by autumn 2009, despite a second surge in cases, swine flu was no longer a top news story. In October the swine flu vaccination programme commenced in the UK, first targeting those deemed to be at greatest risk, with the plan of rolling out the programme to the remaining population in the coming months. As the winter progressed it became evident that the virus was not as virulent as first predicted and the stockpile of vaccines would not be necessary, leading to some accusations of “over-hyping the pandemic” 7 8 By the spring of 2010 mortality data demonstrated that swine flu had been less lethal than first feared and case fatality rates compared favourably with previous influenza pandemics, accounting for less than 500 deaths in the UK and 18,000 worldwide 11 On the 10th of August 2010, 14 months after WHO declared the pandemic, the Director-General of WHO announced the pandemic officially over.
From the BBC so it must be true.
as it is the only thing the sheople believe
First time a tragedy ….
thing is were was Niel Fergusson then and where is Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, now ~???
‘Mild flu’
But even as the pandemic plans were put into action, doubts had begun to surface. Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a German doctor and former member of parliament, had been watching the spread of swine flu in Mexico City, and was puzzled at the reaction of the WHO.
“What we experienced in Mexico City was a very mild flu,” he explained, “which did not kill more than usual – which killed even less people than usual.
“This was suddenly, a fast-spreading mild flu, a pandemic. But this is not the definition of a pandemic I learned, which has to be severe, with a much higher than usual death rate.”
Others also had questions. Tom Jefferson, a researcher for the international Cochrane Centre, the world’s leading independent assessor of medical interventions and medical research, claims that the WHO changed the definition of what a pandemic actually was just weeks before it declared one on 11 June last year.
“On 1 May the WHO’s global pandemic website had the old definition of an influenza pandemic, which included very large numbers of cases, complications and deaths,” he said.
“By 4 May that definition had disappeared and what remained was simply a new virus which spreads rapidly and infects very many people.”
Dr Jefferson also believes that the WHO advice put emphasis on the use of vaccines and antivirals, ahead of effective and inexpensive measures like hand-washing.
‘Potential pressure’
The WHO has struggled to offer clear answers on the question of its definition of a pandemic, partly because of its policy of keeping the identity and the deliberations of its pandemic emergency advisory committee secret.
The only known member of the committee is its chairman, Australian flu specialist John MacKenzie.
Really the only people to benefit were the pharmaceutical companiesPaul Flynn, British MP
WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said names of those on the sitting committee had not been made public because of the potential “for bringing undue pressure on them when they are making decisions which have societal and economic impacts”.
The lack of transparency in its decision making process, together with the WHO’s advice to countries to begin widespread vaccination against swine flu, has led some observers to suspect undue influence from the pharmaceutical industry.
Looking at the balance sheets of the pharmaceutical companies it is clear that many did make a healthy profit out of swine flu. Vaccine producer Novartis, for example, posted an 8% jump in profit in 2009.
The company’s annual report cites swine flu vaccine sales as a major reason for the increase – though such a profit is, of course, not proof of any undue influence by the firm.
European enquiry
These medical products have cost national health budgets billions. France, for example, spent over 600m euros ($739m, £515m) on 94 million doses of vaccine, most of which have not been used.
“Who benefited from what happened?” asked British Labour Member of Parliament Paul Flynn. “Really the only people to benefit were the pharmaceutical companies. I’m not saying I’m drawing any firm conclusions, but there are legitimate questions here.”
We received phone calls from government ministers telling us to ship them more vaccine, and quickerAndrin Oswald, Novartis
Mr Flynn and a number of other European politicians have launched an official inquiry into the pandemic at the Council of Europe. A key question will be whether the pharmaceutical companies, which had invested around $4bn in developing the swine flu vaccine, had supporters inside the emergency committee, who then put pressure on the WHO to declare a pandemic.
But Andrin Oswald, head of vaccine production at Novartis, says he does not think the company’s influence is “too great”.
He says company officials interact in a “natural process” with the WHO, which supplies the firm with the virus for the vaccine.
“I don’t think that is influencing, that is working together to ensure that we do something that is reasonable for public health.”
He adds that any pressure over swine flu came from governments desperate to buy the vaccine, rather than from producers keen to sell it.
“We received phone calls from government ministers,” he recalled, “telling us to ship them more vaccine, and quicker. Some even threatened us that if we did not do so it might affect our future business in that particular country.”
Pandemic planning
Governments, of course, were under pressure to buy the vaccine because the WHO had declared swine flu to be a full “Phase 6” pandemic.
Here again, the WHO’s decision is questioned, from a somewhat surprising source – Dr Klaus Stoehr, who until three years ago was in charge of the WHO’s pandemic preparedness, and the man who drew up the influenza plans.
firms’ profits
“The pandemic planning I was involved with was always based on a severe public health event,” he explained. “Moving to Phase 6 meant that we wanted governments… to kick in their plans whether they thought it was urgent or not.”
“I personally think that moving to Phase 6 that early was, in hindsight, not needed.”
Dr Stoehr believes that, over the course of last summer, after a Phase 6 pandemic was declared, the WHO failed to read the signs about swine flu coming from the southern hemisphere winter.
“In July and August the Australia and New Zealand national influenza centres were indicating the southern hemisphere outbreak was mild,” he said.
“Virologists, myself included, thought well, it’s not so likely that this virus will become more severe.”
“At the end of August the WHO website was still calling the virus severe. I personally would have thought there could have been more assessments, and more advice to governments.”
The WHO has now launched its own review of its handling of the pandemic, a review the organisation claims is independent.
“The World Health Organization has done wonderful work over the years in eliminating diseases,” insisted British MP Paul Flynn. “It’s a body we all greatly respect, and we need it.”
“The great danger now is that the trust in the organisation has been undermined, and that will help no-one.”
Telegraph
25 March 2020 • 4:13pm
Up to two thirds of people who die from corona virus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.
But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.
Appearing via videolink, and drinking from a Keep Calm and Carry On mug, Prof Ferguson said: “We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in the epidemic, in that, by the end of the year what proportion of people who died from covid would have died?…
There was nothing disingenuous about comparing the first 13 weeks of 2018 to the first 13 of 2020.
As you say 2017-2018 influenza out break was at its peak around December as usual.
The ONS data was in yearly week one to week 52 spreadsheet type files.
Influenza outbreaks in the UK are supposed to kill 8000 to 30,000 so an extra 14,000 for a 3 month period of the end of a bad outbreak is to be expected.
Post event data correction is good but there is no evidence of anything dramatic here.
Just grumblings from the ONS that 10-15% of death data comes in too late eg more than 2 weeks after the event.
Nobody knows how many of the 5-7000 people who are dying with covid are dying from it.
Nobody, I asked ONS by email I was amazed I sent the email a 8pm got a reply by 10 am next day. I thought they would be busy.
Was planning to use a friend to ask who works on NHS databases and has an NHS email address in the “Manchester area” ; she provides stats to ONS.
She doesn’t believe it either and wants to put her name to a petition.
Doctors or groups of doctors of say 5 in intensive care units having filled out 30 covid death certificates might have and idea now?
We will have a better idea on the 14 april when the next set of UK ONS data comes out.
I really do not know what to expect.
As to peaks
if you look at china one and the italy one they are as a pattern similar
The peak after 3-4 weeks of a start and begin to tail off.
Do it youself!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
look to the histograms at the end.
And then uk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
Actually that pattern is typical of infectious or fast spreading coronavirus.
It reminds me of that Rockerfeller University guy grinding his teeth.
“ don’t ask me I am a scientist not a psychiatrist”
And bugs and nature dig Gaussian distributions
although it looks more like Poisson to me?
As to its fatality or it case fatality rate over the last 10 days or so it is being revised down even by the protagonists the Imperial college London.
It is now believed by all that its infectiousness or how fast it spreads is far greater than originally believed.
R0 and Rt numbers etc.
What that means is that as they know roughly when it started in any location they can extrapolate how many had actually had had it at any point in time.
These are real ballpark figures but that is ok;
they discovered nuclear fusion by using a black bucket of water and a thermometer left in the sun.
Having a guesstimate of how many people died “from” it at that point in time gives you fatality rate.
Hence Neil Fergusson of imperial college London who stampeded the herd has rolled back from 500,000 to 250,000 and to 20,000.
Two thirds of which would of died anyway according to him.
There was a scoffing article in the new scientist on that around 25 march.
The Oxford University team of Sunitra Gupta believes as of 10 days ago said
up to 68% of people had already had it.
There is bad blood there that hit the headlines; what a bunch of shits that work on the imperial team!
This is so fast;talking about stuff at peer review stage!
I have read the abstract.
Of course to do this properly you have to test a large random sample for covid to see how many people had it.
Iceland did it early on.
This corona virus Pandemic data has to be looked at with caution as it is heavily skewed by increasing testing amongst other things.
And that test results are 2-4 days late.
The apparently long incubation time etc etc it is highly unlikely any positive affect of lockdown will appear for another couple of weeks.
The false positive potential of RT-PCR testing you need clean working practices.
That big spike in the china data oops.
I have used it in the past for out sourced testing to pick up mandarin in orange juice and to identify rogue mannitol producing bugs from plant biofilm contamination.
So I can talk the talk even if I don’t do that shit myself.
But it is general to analysis, the test is very sensitive and you have calibration samples sitting around on the lab bench ; who hasn’t done it?
The Swedes , sensible people, have had no lockdown and have peaked and stabilised despite ramped up testing “seek and you shall find”.
In the table they have also sensible used a 7 day moving average to iron out statistical noise.
They are about 4 weeks into it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden
7 day moving average deaths and case started to flatten on 5/4.
I believe at the moment, now, that this is highly infectious or very fast spreading and it is killing old and vulnerable people.
I suspect that there will be an extraordinary spike in deaths next week in the ONS UK data.
And that spike will be historically exceptional for April.
And it will be picked up and maybe the next outside the 2Z score or 5% probability of statistical noise or whatever.
Nobody, nobody knows how many of that 5 or 7 thousand in the UK actually died of covid.
Nobody knows how many people are dying of Covid without anyone knowing about it.
But they will be added to next weeks ONS data.
If this covid had started in September or October like the 2017-18 flu it could have equalled it and claimed 30K; I really didn’t and haven’t looked at the late 2017 data just assumed it would be ramping up to a peak at the beginning of 2018.
It is a bit disingenuous using 2018 as it was a bad once in 10 years one and 2019 was fairly good and 2020 started well.
This is the problem as you can’t speak rationally without being accused of being nazi Malthusian.
From 31 March 2020 these figures also show the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), based on any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.
It is undoubtedly very dangerous for very ill old people.
However my employer across sever manufacturing sites employs 7000 people.
HR informed me yesterday that we had had no covid fatalities.
Yes I know Flu isn’t nice.
Last year around February I had to go into hospital for the first time in 30 years and I wasn’t happy about it as people die in hospitals.
They wanted to keep me in there for a couple of days for observation as things were quiet.
I was amazed I expected to be left sleeping on a corridor.
There was a really nasty influenza virus lurking around at the time but it wasn’t very infectious.
I got it there though and ended up much more ill than I went in.
They tested me after I got worse rather than better.
And was whisked out of the ward I was in to an isolation ward at 4am in the morning as the on site RT-PCR lab, I think it could have been serological, night shift picked it up.
It almost killed me.
