Dave B
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And Finally…
<figure class=”wp-block-image size-large is-resized”>
<figcaption>Citizen Young rallies rallies his troops outside the now closed Tooting Broadway tube station</figcaption></figure>
I love getting emails from lefties who say they share my lockdown scepticism and can’t believe what a bunch of bed-wetters their fellow travellers are. But this is my favourite so far:Just to say I’ve been a lifelong member of the Marxist revolutionary left and would definitely be on the other side of the barricades from Toby Young (except on Brexit). However, I will be making a donation to Lockdown Sceptics because it is a beacon of sanity in a sea of hysteria. I’ve just finished writing a piece against lockdown, which is even worse where I am (Scotland), and it will hopefully be published next week in a small scale online magazine.
Keep me posted, Comrade. I will link to your article on this site
Unfortunately Alan this is a load of bollocks.
It is called data-mining
Most of America has yet to be affected.
The hardest hit has been north east coast eg New York and New York State
Which has twice the population of Sweden
Per capita with covid deaths there are about 1000 per million which is the highest in the world for a population of over 10 million sort of thing.
You will spend for ever comparing one country to another but probably a good match for Sweden as regards population density would be something close to home eg Scotland
Stockholme has a population of 1 million, 1.5 million or 2.5 million depending on how you define it eg city metropolitan are or district.
That is a bit bigger or approximately the same as Glasgow
The Scottish covid death data is split into confirmed and confirmed and suspected.
Which generate per million death rates of about 350 or 450.
The upper figure is above Sweden the lower about the same.
Although this is all intensely irritating as I keep get dragged back into this fantasy world and false metric [eg measuring covid] that I don’t believe in.
It stopped or crashed in New York shortly after several 20-30% of population immunology testing surveys.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_(state)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm
you might to check my numbers I have just rushed through tha a bit quick
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm
I must admit I getting really bored with this and I am learning absolutely nothing here at all.
What about Singapore!
third highest population density
Deaths per million = 4
Compared to New York’s 1000
Deaths per case = 0.08%!!!!!!!!!!!!
28,000 cases
The remaining staff had fled amid the outbreak- who amoungst is responsible for spooking them ?
The deaths in Canada were discovered late last week at Résidence Herron, a private home for seniors in Montreal, after the local health authority, alarmed by staff shortages and the spread of coronavirus at the home, took control of the residence.
They found dehydrated residents lying listless in bed, unfed for days, with excrement seeping out of their diapers.
“I’d never seen anything like it in my 32-year nursing career,” said Loredana Mule, a nurse on the team. “It was horrific — there wasn’t enough food to feed people, the stench could’ve killed a horse.”
After she left the home, she said, she collapsed in her car and wept.
A skeleton staff of two nurses had been left to care for a private residence with nearly 150 beds, she said. The remaining staff had fled amid the outbreak of the coronavirus, leaving patients, some paralyzed or with other chronic illnesses, to fend for themselves.
I just made all that up as well, been busy this morning.
Computer translate
about 20 percent of the employees have antibodies,
There are many indications that one in five employees at Danderyds hospital have had COVID-19. Further analyzes will show how many of these have shown symptoms or been ill. Photo: Cecilia Larsson Lantz
It shows a first reconciliation in the COMMUNITY study that started at Danderyd’s hospital just over a week ago.
– After 527 tests, we can see that about 20 percent of the employees have antibodies, says the doctor and researcher Charlotte Thålin, who runs the study together with professors Sophia Hober, KTH and Peter Nilsson, SciLifeLab.
The study is the first in the world that can provide such safe results.– The idea of the study is not only to determine how many of the employees who have had COVID-19, we also want to be able to determine how long an individual has antibodies and is most likely immune to COVID-19, says Charlotte Thålin.
– It will be exciting to see if antibody formation is related to possible symptoms, and whether there has been more infection in the departments that care for COVID-19 patients.In just over a week, the research groups around the COMMUNITY study have been able to test 527 of Danderyd Hospital’s employees. These have not yet been able to get their individual answers, but the research team is doing everything to make it happen in the near future. At present, only employees at Danderyd’s hospital are tested in the study. But in the future it is entirely possible to test everyone in the population, only there are resources for it.
– We still don’t know for sure whether antibodies mean immunity, but there is much to be said. In that case, people who are told that antibodies have been formed could work without the risk of becoming infected, or of infecting others, which is of great importance not only for health care and other socially beneficial functions, but also for society as a whole, says Charlotte Thålin .
High validation
According to the analyzes made regarding the validation of the test results, the results are almost 100 percent reliable.
– In the validation conducted so far, more than 400 samples with known answers have been analyzed, of which just over 100 have been positive and 300 negative. In all these cases, this method of analysis has given the correct answer, ie 100 percent correct. Since it is important to know more about this, we will continue to analyze known samples and thus further validate the method, says Professor Sophia Hober.The study runs for at least one year
Now the study continues at Danderyds hospital and the hope is that within a few weeks all the staff who want to be included in the study will have tested. Employees fill out a questionnaire where they indicate whether they have had symptoms and where they are at the hospital. After three months there will be a follow-up where you test the same individuals again, whether you have had antibodies or not. Thereafter, several follow-ups continue; after six months, one year and probably even after two and five years.
The study also creates a biobank with plasma samples from inpatient patients with COVID-19. The purpose is, together with other research groups, to investigate possible prognostic markers. These blood tests can also provide important information about possible treatment options.
Brief facts about the study
• Employees go into an app and book times for testing, where the answer is also stated after about 2 weeks. Complete confidentiality is ensured, for example, by the employee signing with his BankID.
• After the first test, follow-up is done after 3, 6 and 12 months, probably even after 2 and 5 years respectively. This is because the study wants to know how long an individual has antibodies. The follow-up is done regardless of whether the individual had initially formed antibodies or not.
• The test method has been developed at SciLifeLab and KTH.
• The research group from Danderyds Hospital includes specialist physician Charlotte Thålin, ST physician Ann-Sofie Rudberg and specialist physician Sebastian Havervall.
• The research group from KTH includes professors Sophia Hober, Peter Nilsson and My Hedhammar.
• The study is funded by the Stockholm Region, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, the Erling-Persson Family Foundation, the Christian Family and Jennifer Dahlberg and Atlas Copco.For more information, contact Charlotte Thålin (charlotte.thalin@sll.se) or call Danderyds Hospital press call 08-123 562 77.
Danderyds Hospital is one of the country’s largest emergency hospitals. The most important thing for us is that our patients feel safe and secure and receive the best possible care and treatment. We work towards that goal every day – together.
For Bijoux brains ; I have just made all this up as well
on Sweden
After the first survey measured the spread of coronavirus in Stockholm in April, a second survey will determine how many more were infected one month later.
Published May 05, 2020By the first weeks of April, 10 percent of Stockholm’s population had been infected with the coronavirus and developed antibodies, according to sampling collected via post from 1,000 of the city’s residents. KTH researchers now will follow up with a second mailing of 1,000 sample collection kits in order to determine the spread over the last four weeks.
The results provide a snapshot of the spread of infection Stockholm had accumulated by Easter. Of 1,000 anonymous home sampling kits sent, 550 were returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.
The incubation period for COVID-19 ranges from 2 to 14 days following exposure, with most cases showing symptoms approximately 4 to 5 days after exposure. The average sampling day was April 11, says Niclas Roxhed, associate professor at KTH.
<figure class=”block figure” lang=”en-UK” data-cid=”1.981041″>
<figcaption class=”figure-caption”>Lab engineers Matilda Dale and Annika Bendes work with the sample analysis.</figcaption></figure>
The mailings were evenly distributed to men and women, chosen at random, and ranging in age between 20 and 74, from a population of 1.22 million people in 717,850 households.
“We really need the public’s help now,” Roxhed says. “Only with as many contributions as possible can we get a true picture of the spread of infection.
“And this allows us to put into practice a way for everyone who needs to be tested to be able to test themselves.”
Roxhed (KTH) and Olof Beck (Karolinska Institutet) are responsible for sampling and mailing. Analysis of antibodies and proteins is led by Jochen Schwenk and Claudia Fredolini (both from KTH / SciLifeLab). Production of viral proteins is handled by Gerald McInerney, Leo Hanke and Benjamin Murrell (all three from Karolinska Institutet).
it is a bit speculative but going from Swedish death curve as a descriptive model they might be at about 20% now
there was another Swedish serological on heath workers only that had about 20%
I will have to look for it later.
the highest were I think about 70% by PCR in an American prison population ?
Japan
Densely populated a bit?
Partial/ no lockdown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Japan
Macau most densely populated place in the world?
Partial lockdown; or casino’s kept open.
No deaths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Macau
Who is living in a make-believe world of spooks?
Picture taken on the tube in London this morning. The commuters seem more worried about dying from putting on their trousers than from COVID-19 – and the risk may actually be greater, given that London is almost virus-free and eight people died while trying to put on their trousers last year.It is in various places
This is one
According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health………………… “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus…………….On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says.
I might send links later if I feel like it was also on one of the sites I just sent links to!
The post that I sent was not supposed to be about death rates.
I was going to take that dead thing out as I had a feeling that that would distract from the main point.
It was supposed to be about how many people may have had it in the UK ; and the death rate and lockdown discussion follows that.
But I will let that be derailed for the moment.
Princess Diamond
No crew died and not all the ages of the passengers who died is known but the youngest was in their 60’s and most were over 70.
It is well known from people like Prof John Ioannidis, who did a detailed analysis of that Princes Diamond case, that influenza and colds can rip through old peoples homes and kill over 10% of them.
Probably not in this article I can find it if you really want.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v2
Diamond princes was like a floating old peoples home
….Of the 3,711 people aboard Diamond Princess, 1,045 were crew and 2,666 were passengers.The median age of the crew was 36 while the median age of the passengers was 69. The passengers were 55% female and the crew was 81% male. Of the 712 infections, 145 occurred in crew and 567 occurred in passengers…<sup>..</sup>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_cruise_ships
There is another case below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Charles_de_Gaulle
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To reiterate I do not believe that all those dying with covid have died from it.
An example of a factual case would be that the Italians reviewed or sampled a set of died with covid cases/ death certificates and decided that in fact only 13% of them could be reliably diagnosed of dying from Covid.
This was supposed to be about Lockdown and the amount of people that could be killing, will kill over the next year or so and the general misery for the working class around the world that is now too late to stop.
Data is already suggesting that about 30% of excess deaths in the UK are non covid deaths.
There is supposed to be a delayed report or analysis on that from ONS.
Although it is not hard to figure out; the hospitals have been emptied of really sick people to make way for a covid rush that never came. They are still half empty.
Many of those people have died for lack of proper medical supervision and stress in old peoples home.
EG
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/05/14/625355/UK-care-home-residents-fading-away
please do not use extraneous material in that as another opportunity to go off on another tangent. It is just something I just read.
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Given what is known to have happened on those two aircraft carriers as well documented examples it is inconceivable that that the majority of people in the UK has not already had it.
Making Lockdown a waste of time.
People are assuming that lockdown is a tried and trusted method with a proven track record for this kind of thing; it hasn’t .
there is good cleaned up data an analysis on the UK at this site.
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My viewpoint at the moment is that people are probably not dying of covid at all but probably from something else maybe an influenza or another cold type virus.
People mistakenly think when you have a respiratory illnesses you have one infection from one virus, [fungi, bacteria or yeast ].
In the real world you get an infection which degrades the respiratory pathways and that is followed by a host of other microbes.
If covid 19 is a secondary opportunistic infection testing for it as an affect is going to miss the cause and more importantly, if applied on a mass scale, is to generate some bizarre data if the hypothesis is that covid 19 is a primary causative infection .
[Covid 19 as contributing factor is relevant as in deceases you can synergistic effects.]
In pandemics you do not usually have per million capita death rates varying from 600 to below 10.
It doesn’t flare up in one city and then die out without affecting the billions in the rest of the country and then move to the other side of the world and create alleged havoc there.
There are other issues evolving now about whether some treatment regimes eg hydroxyquinoline are actually killing people and sub groups, a proportion of whom can react badly to it.
Eg BAME people who appear to be dying in higher numbers than others.
EG AGAIN
As well as unnecessary intubation of patients which is a desperate high risk strategy.
As I know only too well.
