Bijou Drains
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AJ – my point is to say that our position has been historically consistant. Not many political parties are happy to say they supported the 1914-18 slaughter (especially the Labour Party), but they did then, and they are serving up the same jingoistic nonsense today that they did then.
Very interesting article from Counterfire where they interview Boris Kagarlitsky (John Rees and Lindsey German’s left wing vanity project) written in 2014 about the Euromaidan protests and their development. There is a lot of typcial bolshevik inspired hot air, but some good factual information, etc.
The Party should make use of the historic position on capitalist war by puplishing the 1914 statement of the Party.
THE SOCIALIST PARTY of Great Britain seizes the opportunity to re-affirming the Socialist position, which is as follows:
That Society as at present constituted is based upon the ownership of the means of living by the capitalist or master class, and the consequent enslavement of the working class, by whose labour alone wealth is produced.
That in Society, therefore, there is an antagonism of interests, manifesting itself as a CLASS WAR, between those who possess but do not produce and those who produce but do not possess.
That the machinery of government, including the armed forces of the nation, exist only to conserve the monopoly by the capitalist class of the wealth taken from the workers.
These armed forces, therefore, will only be set in motion to further the interests of the class who control them – the master class – and as the workers’ interests are not bound up in the struggle for markets wherein their masters may dispose of the wealth they have stolen from them (the workers), but in the struggle to end the system under which they are robbed, they are not concerned with the present European struggle, which is already known as the “BUSINESS” war, for it is their masters’ interests which are involved and not their own.
THE SOCIALIST PARTY of Great Britain, pledges itself to keep the issue clear by expounding the CLASS STRUGGLE, and whilst placing on record its abhorrence of the latest manifestation of the callous, sordid, and mercenary nature of the international capitalist class, and declaring no interests are at stake justifying the shedding of a single drop of working class blood, enters its emphatic protest against the brutal and bloody butchery of our brothers of this and other lands who are being used as food for cannon abroad while suffering and starvation are the lot of their fellows at home. Having no quarrel with the working class of any country, we extend to our fellow workers of all lands the expression of our goodwill and Socialist fraternity, and pledge ourselves to work for the overthrow of capitalism and the triumph of Socialism.
THE WORLD FOR THE WORKERS
August 25th, 1914
The Executive CommitteeI also think the EC should re approve the same statement.
MS – “pretty soon they are going to ask for the closing of Russian Orthodox churches”
Either that or they will have cut a deal with the local franchise of Religion Inc (copyright Lenny Bruce) so that they bless the war and tell them that god is on their side.
Bloody typical isn’t it. Just as Newcastle look like building a decent team, the world gets destroyed in a nuclear Holocaust!
I had hoped the team would be in European action soon, but not this way!
Re the nuclear threat, my take is that it might be that Putin thinks he might have pissed on his chips.
Evidenced by what we read from the media (with all of the caveats that must include) some of the thoughts I have come to include:
Reports of 1/2 of troop numbers being engaged does not imply that that the Russians are holding back, only having 1/2 forces is logical for any military strategist, it is necessary to have strategic reserves, giving flexibility if necessary and it also allows you to supplement logistics.
From a military point of view it might also be that Russia has been relying on its ferocious reputation from WW2 for a little too long. If Ukraine can hold off 1/4 of Russia’s standing army without the nuclear threat, then from a conventional army point of view it may be that is some ways Russia appear to be a bit of a busted flush. If they are struggling with that, then taking on Poland, the Baltic nations, Rumania, Hungary, etc. would be well beyond their grasp.
In terms of the technology of war, there is always a little bit of guesswork of what works and what doesn’t and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Although Ukraine has a large amount of ageing Soviet/Russian armaments, it has some of its own designed armoured personnel carriers and it has large numbers of Western designed anti tank and anti aircraft systems. It might be that the some of the Russian systems are not as robust as were first thought, certainly there have been many reports of aircraft being downed and tanks being destroyed, which seems to indicate that these systems are more effective than the Russians thought.
Again this may be conjecture, but the seeing increase in the degree of confidence that NATO members may be showing (agreeing to more arms, the Germans signing off deployment of weapons, etc) might be a result of better than expected performance from the Ukrainian side and the threat of going nuclear may be because the Russians (or really Putin and his mates) think that their forces have achieved less than what they think they should have done.
How far the impact of all of this has on Putin is debatable though. He appears to have more control of the state machine and more control of the political system than anyone since Stalin.
I have been rereading Michael Voslensky’s Nomiklatura, which discussed the appointment of Stalin’s successors and his take was that the cabal at the top of the Soviet Communist Party deliberately appointed nonentities, who could be removed by his rivals as necessary. Putin doesn’t appear to have any rivals and as such so getting rid of him might not be as easy.
AC “as the average Brit blames foreigners for everything anyway.”
I think that is grossly unfair and a gross exaggeration, the majority of the people I meet in various people do not react in that way at all. The gobshites, the ones who hog the media and the social media may respond that way, however most of the people in workplaces and boozers that I meet have a pretty jaundiced view of what is going on in Eastern Europe.
The press would like us to think that Johnson has a whopping majority, whereas he in fact only has a plurality, he got 43.6% of votes on a 67.3% turnout. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Little England movement.
Similarly the Brexit vote was 51.89% of 72.21% turnout. Given that a large proportion of vote leave were not blaming foreigners but tangled up in a variety of different viewpoints, it would be pretty hard to justify a view that average Brit is xenophobic.
The level of political sophistication in the world is much higher than we give people credit.
Seems to me like the most likely outcome, the effective annexation of the Eastern region of Ukraine and keeping them as a buffer state against EU and Nato. I think the regime change attempt in Belarus was maybe the final straw of the West power play. Next stage in the great game would be Putin putting pressure on other areas of conflict. Perhaps Georgia, Bosnia and or Syria.
I think the survival of the Assad regime has emboldened the Russian Capitalist class, however any talk of being a new cold war ignores the fact that in the original cold war the USSR had client states all over Africa, Central America, Asia, etc.
Finance will win out, Russia is a busted flush with the advent of non fossil fuel economy. The Russian state (effectively the fossil fuel oligarchies) are making a play whilst their stock is high, give it a five years and the falling impact of mineral wealth will reduce the military might of Russia. At the end of the day military spending is reliant on tax, which is a levy on capital. The Capitalist class in Russia will squeal about having to have a high tax economy when there is high levels of military and state security spending.
I don’t expect that it will lead to a widespread European war. The Minsk protocols stated that the Eastern states had an effective veto on Ukraine joining Nato and or EU. The fact that Putin has renounced the veto may be an indicator that he knows that he has not got the power to stop the Ukraine joining the EU and then Nato.
Needless to say no drop of Working Class blood should be shed in supporting either side of this Capitalist conflict and no doubt there will be division between the Trots, Tankies and various neo Bolsheviks which way to jump.
Good job the clueless rank and file Trots, Tankies and neo Bolsheviks have got leaders to tell them which section of the capitalist clas to support otherwise they’d be wetting their pants not knowing how to think!
BBC Lunch time news seems to be winding down the rhetoric, saying some form of negotiations will take place when the Russian manoeuvres are over, perhaps their good friends at Vauxhall Cross have tipped them the wink?
The majority of people I meet in pubs have very little interest in the situation in the Ukraine, most are more interested in the price of a pint and the ongoing drama of Newcastle United FC.
The only comments I have heard about it in pubs was two people of my generation saying they don’t want their grand kids to have to go and take part in a war, and a general feeling that Johnson is using it to distract people from Partygate
If you watch the following time line website I’ve linked, it does kind of explain why Putin is a little alarmed, especially considering the troule in Belarus and in Khazakstan. Not that I have any more sympathy for Russian National interests as I do for US/Western interests.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#/media/File:Map_of_NATO_chronological.gif
Finland is still in the European/US sphere of influence and is within the EU, without being a member of NATO, as are Austria, Sweden and the Republic of Ireland. A Finland style resolution would be my best bet for a resolution to this, with the Ukraine staying outside the EU but making trade agreements that match all aspects of the Common Trade Agreement, etc.
“So I can have a coffee and watch Everybody Loves Raymond first, to settle me before switching on the news.”
If the Russians do take over, at least they might have funnier sitcoms than the Yanks and we will be spared having been force fed shite like “Friends”
This whole development must be placed in the geo political context.
Historically Russia has been hamstrung by geography; access to warm water ports has reduced its ability to develop blue water naval capability. Previous conflicts that have been stoked up by that issue have been the Crimean War, the Russo Japanese war of 1904-5, the Balkans wars, the Dardanelles Campaign, the Yugoslav wars, etc.
Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia’s strategic position (or more correctly, its capitalist class) has been in retreat. The minerals boom in the last 20 years has strengthened the Russian hand and this has increased their defence situation. Putin stated, “naval ambition broadened in scope and aimed at re-creating a large blue-water navy”. The Syrian conflict is a sign of this, Russia has developed its Naval facilities in Tarsus in Syria.
Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine are also a big part of Russia’s strategic interests. It is a natural assumption that USA and its allies will oppose this. Hence the US support for Syria, opposition to Iran, etc.
The Baltic flank is effectively secure for Russia because they still have access through Kaliningrad and it has a major naval port in Baltiysk. Although Kaliningrad is an exclave, at some point access to it might become a pressure point (Like Danzig was to the Germans in 1939).
It is also worth bearing in mind that in terms of finance and influence Russia is at its high tide. Moves away from fossil fuel are likely to hit the Russians hardest. As late comers on the world oil boom they have not had the time to build up sovereign wealth funds like the some of the middle east countries. Putin may think the time to push for concessions to the West is now, a mew arms race with the West at this point may have a similar impact on Russia as it did on the USSR.
The last factor is that Biden, Johnson and Macron are very unpopular, with Macron due to be at the polls this year. All three would like to pull a rabbit out of the hat and may well be creating the feel of a bigger issue, so that they can claim to have sorted it out.
Put in context the Russian “threat” is not as huge as it once was. Russia total defence spending is $61.7 billion, in comparison the UK, France and Germany’s spending is nearly $170 billion. Even before you take into account the inflated price western countries pay for armaments, this is a huge gap, which doesn’t include Italy £28.9 billion, Canada with $22 billion and the USA with $778 billion (even the smaller countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Spain, Portugal, etc, add huge war power to Nato. Nato far exceeds Russian expenditure, equipment, manpower and technology.
My guess is that Putin would be happy with a redrawing of the Eastern frontier of the Ukraine to ensure safe passage to the Crimea and The Findlandization of the Ukraine and Georgia.
The West’s problem is to try and sell that to the Ukraine and to pass that off as a victory for the West.
Thise who think this will end in a 3rd World War need to see that strategically, Hitler’s gamble in 1939 was always doomed to failure; the German economy was too weak to sustain it. Germany’s geographic position, military might and technological development was similarly weak.
Putin is in a less powerful situation than Hitler, his strength it appears is that he doesn’t havw the same profound lack of strategic understanding, knowledge of economics or geography & military intelligence that Hitler had. He also does not have the level of popular support or capitalist backing that Hitler did.
