Bijou Drains
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Just a quick question TW, do you stand by your assertion that the Ukrainian forces have suffered over 100,000 deaths?
BD “Scott Ritter said in February 2022 that Russia would not invade the Ukraine.”
TW – “Dunno where you got that from since he predicted the invasion in late 2021 after NATO rebuffed Moscow’s call to respect its security demands.”
Scott Ritter wrote “Despite the repeated Western warnings, Russia is highly unlikely to invade Ukraine” Published 31-01-22
In the same article, Ritter also wrote that “Russia will exploit US hypocrisy on spheres of influence and military alliances by ……. deploying a naval squadron to the Caribbean.”
I see no ships!
Scott Ritter said in February 2022 that Russia would not invade the Ukraine.
After the invasion he said that, Ukraine will fall in maximimum of a week.
I wouldn’t rely on him for your racing tips, TW
Knacker Dan said “My initial assessment was based on that of Scott Ritter.”
That’ll be the same Scott Ritter who predicted before the 2nd Gulf War that
“The United States is going to leave Iraq with its tail between its legs, defeated. It is a war we can not win … We do not have the military means to take over Baghdad”
The same Scott Ritter who didn’t have the sense to realise he was going to get himself entrapped as seeking out underage sex, not once but twice!!
Presumably he is one of your “trusted and knowledgeable analysts”
According to you ” I am very confident in the numbers state because the sources I follow have proven themselves time and time again to be correct.”
There are 284 pages on this discussion board, can you show just how you have proven the numbers you have stated “time and time again to be correct”. Very little you have predicted has come to fruition.
“Roozenbeek said Bakhmut itself doesn’t hold a lot of strategic value, but the location does.”
I’ll try and explain this to TW. “Bakhmut doesn’t itself hold a lot of strategic value” – This means the city (its resources, its manufacturing, its population, etc.) do not hold a resource based value. “but it’s location does” it has a strategic geographic position in terms of defensibility for the Ukranian Forces.
AJ – “It will take time for them to be produced to replenish. But it will happen.
Perhaps the time-line may not be sufficient to save Ukraine from the anticipated Russian offensive,”
TW “The offensives have already started. You sleeping in class again? Do pay attention. And yes, it is too late for Ukraine. But then again, Ukraine never had a chance as I was saying from the get go.”
From the get go you have been saying that Russia would steamroller the Ukrainian state very quickly. One year on this has not happened, tragically to the cost of thousands of working class people on both sides.
As to whether there will be a Russian breakthrough in 2023, the outcome is probably pretty uncertain. The usually expected numerical advantage that attackers need to breakthrough defensive forces has long been set at about 3:1.
The Soviet era Military Author A A Siderenko, stated that although a general 3:1 superiority was the least ratio needed to create a battlefield breakthrough, he also stated that attackers needed a 5:1 advantage in terms of personnel, 8:1 or 9:1 in artillery and 3:1 to 4:1 advantage in tanks.
Has Russia got the level of advantage over Ukrainian forces, I don’t know and I’m very confident that TW doesn’t know either. It is likely in the fog of war neither side can give an accurate forecast of these numbers.
We also need to take into consideration that these are the minimum estimated numbers required. It is also possible that these numbers can be impacted on quality of arms and troops (A British force of 36,000 overwhelmed an Italian force of 150,000 troops during Operation Compass in 1940-41 taking 133,000 prisoners of war).
What is certain that without meaningful peace negotiations and some settlement between these two capitalist powers, thousands of more workers will be fed into the meat grinder to keep the powerful elite in their positions of power.
Thank you for answering the question and I am glad that at least there is one thing we can agree about, i.e. that targeting civilians is abhorant.
As to the source of the quote, as I said in my previous post, I listen to RTE (the Irish broadcaster) more often than to the BBC because it appears to be less biased than the BBC. (it also gives good coverage of Gaelic Games).
I did not state that I thought it was unbiased or accurate. I do not take any media (including Russian and pro Russian media) with a very large pinch of salt.
I’ll add that to the long list of questions you are unable or unwilling to answer.
I would have thought a straight targeting civillians regardless of the situation is not acceptable would have done, but you can’t even give a straight answer to that question.
Are you too frightened to condemn it, just in case it turns out to be the correct?
AJ – “For the working class, it means that national budgets will be adjusted with less GDP spent on social welfare and much more spent on the military.
Tanks for nothing, Putin and Zelensky, for putting more money into the coffers of the armament industry and less into health, education and the elderly.
Something to be proud of. ”
To put this into context Alan, I did some research on military costs regarding ammunition production in Russia.
Russia is claiming that it has produced 3,558,454 152mm shells (the most used artillery shell accounting for approx 45% of artillery shells by Russian forces) between 2014 – 2021 source militarynews.ru
The approximate cost of these shells over the production of the stockpile is about $620 per shell. (cost in 2014 was $446 per unit, cost in 2022 is $650 per unit, but production levels were different across each year with production rising throughout the period from 155,337 for 2014 to 735,260 in 2021, 2022 production was not included)
That works out at a cost of 2.31 billion dollars for just one type of shell.
The costs and production numbers of Multiple Launch Rocket Shells (MLRS) can be estimated as well using Russian sources.
The estimated production of the 70,287 Urgan type shells would cost $11,222 per shell = $788,760,714 and the estimated production of Tornado G shells is 9,651 with a cost of $83,245 per shell = $803,397,495.
For one relatively small part of this war, the cost is nearly $4 billion.
The cost of the Ukraine war (over and above the human lives) has been estimated as being $400 million dollars per day, making a yearly total cost from the Russian side of $146 billion so far.
If you were to estimate roughly that the Ukrainian and Nato costs have been equivalent (they will probably be more because weapons production is more expensive in the US and Western Europe) an estimate of nearly $300 billion in costs so far for this war.
That is roughly 10% of the cost of the whole world’s food production for one year (world bank estimates of $3.1 trillion per year as costs of world food production)
Another startling example of the ludicrous waste that the capitalist system produces.
BD “I was only trying to find out whether TN felt that the statement I quoted re civilians was one he supported or not.”
TW – “Link to the source of the quote, please.”
It was a report on RTE radio, I tend to listen to RTE rather than BBC as it appears to be less heavily biased that BBC and you often hear international stories that aren’t reported in the UK.
That said the veracity of the story is not really important, regardless of the truth of the story or not, the question is about your view on it.
Essentially the question is, “do you agree that it is appropriate to target civilians when there is a “fortress” situation”.
Whether it turns out to a lie or if it turns out to be true, this should not impact on your judgement on the matter.
BD – Zelenskiy said in early February that Ukraine was determined to hold Bakhmut, describing it as “Fortress Bakhmut”.
AJ – I was not saying Bahmhut was set up as a fortress, I was only trying to find out whether TN felt that the statement I quoted re civilians was one he supported or not.
TN – “Crimea was wrongly given over. Ask any Crimean.”
Are you referring to the 1783 annexation of the Crimea by the Russian Empire?
Russian state has announced that “Bakhmut is being defended as a fortress and that, as a result the city and its inhabitants would be treated as military targets”
Surely this is something that even True Narcissist has to condemn?
TW – Stated “As far as I understand it is the official position of the SPGB that Russia was provoked in to invading Ukraine. If you deliberately provoke someone in to taking an action then they they take that action it seems to me that the provocateur is at fault.”
This is not the “official position of the SPGB”. We are a democratic party and it would only be the “official position” of the SPGB if the democratic processes of the party decided it was the “official position” of the party.
Some members writing for the Party Journal have put their view that the West provoked the conflict, this was their view, (one I agree with to some extent). However this needs to be seen within the context of capitalist society, i.e. that all sections of the ruling class are in struggle with other sections of their class to gain the long term strategic and eventually the financial advantage, or trying to lesson their disadvantage, in terms of each other.
Which side was “at fault” is not something we (and the working class) have an interest in, one way or the other. It certainly doesn’t follow that we should therefore support the victim of the provocation. As we have tried to explain to you, our view is that neither side of the conflict deserves any support from the working class. They essentially are the two shitty cheeks of the same capitalist arsehole.
Your idea that Russia is some form of society that is not capitalist and is not socialist, is as laughable as it is demonstrably incorrect.
TW – “But parliaments are constituted of representatives are they not? How does a leaderless organisation lead?”
The clue is in your own words “representatives”. Representatives do not lead, they represent, a leadership organisation therefore does not lead, it represents the group it is elected to represent.
You seem to misunderstand the concept of idealism as magnificently as you misunderstand materialism. Idealism doesn’t mean that you have ideas. The Materialist Conception of History does not deny the influence of ideas on history. In fact there would be no revolutionary changes if ideas did not play a part. What it does is to trace the source of the ideas, but to deny the power of ideas alone.
Socialist have drawn certain conclusions from past and present conditions and are trying to pass on these ideas with a view to bringing about a change in the economic base of society because we hold that present conditions are fettering the further development of mankind.
TW stated – I believe you’ve misunderstood me. I was inferring protest/civil disobedience not armed resistance. – ”
You weren’t inferring, you were implying. The active person makes the implication, the inference is made by the person receiving the implicit message.
