alanjjohnstone
Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
TS- “There are six cowards sitting in their frozen basements in the UK who definitely won’t be taking part in any war against NATOstani/Nazi aggression.”
If I recall in several earlier exchanges BD challenged you to join up.
Wagner has a recruitment office in St Peterburg for you to sign up.
….oops I forget, your politics are that of a chickenhawk warmonger…let other people do the dying while you do battle on your keyboard from the comfort of your armchair, safe from bullets and bombs
“NATOstani/Nazi aggression” ???
You claim Ukraine can be labelled Nazi. Now, are you claiming that NATO nations can be defined as Nazi, as well?
“I believe the government minister. He has all the facts at hand.”
And where do you think all his information comes from? The equivalent of the Fed Reserve and the Bank of England. The person I quoted.
“Seems you’ve chosen a side.”
We support all draft dodgers and anti-war campaigners. If you go back to the start of this topic thread you will read our praise for Ukrainian men leaving the country rather than being called up.
“you forget about that ocean that needs crossing”
You forget America’s powerful aircraft carrier fleet (23) and of course what George Orwell called Airstrip One – the UK – with its extensive American airbases.
You forget what is called war reserve stock, equipment and supplies pre-positioned around Europe and in Israel
America has relatively recent experience from the two Iraqi wars of the logistic transportation of combat-ready battle groups. And equally as seen in Afghanistan a speedy retreat and withdrawal.
But be rest assured, those of us on this forum will NOT be rushing to enlist or resist any Russian invasion. We’ll accept any occupation and will adapt and adjust our political activity appropriately.
You quote a government minister from September. I quote Russia’s central bank head from November. Who would you trust? A political appointee or a career economist?
“Most of those 700,000 who left are already back.”
Good…700,000 disloyal and potential dissident citizens for the FSB to cope with.
But, of course, there may well be another mobilisation of conscripts if Russian casualties mount if this anticipated Winter offensive fails. Already there are rumours of a post-Xmas second mobilisation
The current fighting for Bakhmut is indeed taking a heavy toll on both sides. If it is captured, it won’t be the Putin or Russian army getting the credit but Wagner’s Prigozhin who many say is manoeuvring to replace Putin. Why else is a Pyrrhic victory for an insignificant non-strategic town worth so much effort other than propaganda value for a Prigozhin power-grab?
TS -“And yet it is the US’ proxy that is running out of equipment not Russia”
Russia lost an estimated thousand of its T-90, T-80 and T-72 tanks and now using 50-year-old T-62s.
Who is scraping the barrel?
Didn’t I read that half of Ukraine’s armour force was captured from Russia during its retreats and abandoned its equipment making it the largest supplier of armaments to Ukraine?
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 7 October 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/zxsxakKNtO
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/pwIRUanlAg
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 7, 2022
Raytheon announced new $1.2 Billion contract to deliver six National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System batteries for Ukraine.
I mention the economic data because of your scaremongering that the EU economy was on the verge of collapse or as you claim – de-industrialisation.
Is it a bed of roses? No. Germany has a decline of 0.2% next year after growing by 1.7% in 2022. But you prefer apocalyptic hyperbole
Russia’s recession from its own press release and I quoted its central bank director. The sanctions after being initially softened by the boost in oil and gas revenues are beginning to bite deep.
300,000 conscripted and 700,000 choosing exile has created a labour shortage
https://www.ft.com/content/893b76bd-b58e-4ae4-a5d5-12d45d825cecAnd children to be employed now by relaxing the restrictions on hiring them
Can i remind you of the Edwin Starr song – WAR
Having now watched the other Fiona Hill clips I appreciate her professionalism in never straying too far from her area of expertise, the political dimension.
As an independent scholar and no longer an employee of the government, she has no axe to grind and can express herself freely.
Regards national identity, I was reminded of Putin’s essay where he argues Ukraine has always been a historical part of Holy Mother Russia.
Even after 300 years of union with England when Scots are asked who they want to win the World Cup most will answer Anybody But England.
Fiona Hill has studied in-depth Putin, Russia, Ukraine and America. Her understanding of the politics involved shouldn’t be so casually dismissed.
In this clip she discusses language and surprisingly makes a parallel with Scotland – ie speaking the same language as a neighbouring country doesn’t ensure shared identity.
I mentioned already in a previous that American energy companies are profiteering from the sale of LNG to Europe.
The US arms industry as I also said earlier are gleeful at the anticipation of European countries boosting their defence spending.
If I recall the beginning of the war, France, Germany and US anticipated a swift Russian victory and America was preparing to fly Zelensky out of Kiev. Perhaps Zelensky read Grover Furr that when Poland’s government left, it gave USSR a legal excuse to invade so he wisely rejected the offer. The NATO eastern European countries (Hungary excepted) required little persuasion to support a proxy war.
Again, it seems it was not the US originally declared a proxy war but Boris Johnson who convinced Zelensky to fight and not capitulate.
Any suggestion that Western Europe will de-industrialise even with high energy prices is wildly exaggerated.
(Reuters) – Euro zone economic sentiment rebounded in November slightly more than expected, data showed on Tuesday, rising for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February on more optimism among consumers and in services.
(Reuters) – Germany’s tax revenue jumped 6.1% to 57 billion euros ($58.35 billion) in October after two consecutive monthly fallsI could go through each eurozone nation but OECD predicts UK and Russia decline are similar
Russia’s economy has fallen into a recession, according to official data from Moscow. Its GDP fell by 4% in the third quarter of the year from a year ago, according to Rosstat, Russia’s statistics agency. This followed a 4.1% year-on-year decline in its second-quarter GDP.
Elvira Nabiullina, the country’s top central banker, said,”Yes, the situation can worsen, we understand this,” Nabiullina told Russian lawmakers adding it was necessary to restructure the economy.
While much of Europe is starting to recover UK and Russia are failing.
Is China doing any better?
China’s industrial firms saw overall profits industrial profits fell 3.0% in the first 10 months of 2022 from a year earlier despite the discounted prices it is getting from Russian oil and gas.Fortunately, the American GI doesn’t go into battle with a toilet seat.
**$276 billion** in planned spending on **weapons systems alone**
Two and half times more for just weapons than what Russia spends on its entire military defence budget.
Is Russia immune from false accounting?
Russian corruption
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/corruption-russian-armed-forces
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-military-corruption-quagmire/“The US is mighty on paper or when fighting 3rd world guerilla armies but against a peer rival, not so much.”
And who is having the most success at Bakhmut? Russian regular forces or a convict army of mercenaries being used as cannon-fodder.
The very first sentence of your Rand link
“Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely”
“The US is prioritizing arms assistance to Ukraine over Taiwan”
So the US does not anticipate an imminent threat to Taiwan from China and isn’t planning to start a war with China anytime soon.
Lockheed Martin Corporation, Boeing Company, and other suppliers say they have struggled to keep up with orders due to pandemic-induced supply-chain issues. These issues were present even before the Ukraine invasion prompted an increase in weapons demand.
The article based upon the Wall St Journal talks of weapons originally destined to supply Taiwan being sent to Ukraine.
Taiwan ordered 208 Javelin anti-tank weapons and 215 surface-to-air Stinger missiles in December 2015. Instead, Ukraine was sent over 8,500 Javelins and over 1,600 Stingers. Plus some other hi-tech weaponry has also been re-directed to Ukraine as it is taking precedence over any potential threat to Taiwan.
Other sources reveal USA (if you had Googled) is increasing military aid to Taiwan
US$ 1.1 billion has been pledged from the United States to Taiwan. The aid package is the largest ever granted to the country and includes 60 Harpoon-type ship-firing missile systems and 100 AIM-9 Sidewinder short-range missiles, as well as financial support for a radar system.
“The package would allow the U.S. to send up to $1 billion worth of stockpiled munitions and up to $2 billion worth of weapons paid for by U.S. taxpayers annually over the next five years”
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/nov/14/congress-moving-forward-military-aid-package-taiwa/In September, it reached a $555m agreement with USA to buy four MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones, the maritime variant of the Reaper drone.
Although the Stingers would be useful as any conflict with China would primarily begin as a naval and air war, Javelin anti-tank rockets are scarcely an imperative.
America intends $840 billion in defense expenditures for 2023, raising Biden’s proposed military budget by $37 billion.
$276 billion in planned spending on weapons systems alone.
And you call that demilitarisation. What planet do you hail from?
In comparison, Russia’s total defence budget is less than $100 billion.
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-skyrocketing-defense-spending-2022-2023/
Lyrics to our one-time party song (there is sheet music for it in archives, I think)
“The World for the Workers”.
Words & Music by H. J. Neumann
You toilers of the world, arise!
To bravely speed the day,
When all your forces organise
King Capital to slay,
And from the master class you’ll wrest
The Powers of the State,
Which, wielded in your interest,
Your class emancipate.There sounds above the class war din
The battle-cry we use:
Unite! you have a world to win,
Your chains alone to lose.”Your lot in life is darkest gloom;
You sow and others reap.
And want and mis’ry are your doom,
While idlers treasures heap.
Why have they riches, you distress,
Though you all wealth have wrought?
It is because the few possess
The earth, while you have nought.There sounds above the class war din
The battle-cry we use:
Unite! you have a world to win,
Your chains alone to lose.”While you an idle class maintain
For pittances you’ll toil.
To own your products you must gain
Possession of the soil
And of all means the workers need
To found the Commonwealth,
And thus enable all to lead
Full lives of peace and health.There sounds above the class war din
The battle-cry we use:
Unite! you have a world to win,
Your chains alone to lose.”Arise! the message to proclaim,
The message full of cheer:
That Labour’s freedom is your aim,
That brighter days are near.
To men exhausted by the fray,
To women in despair,
To children wanting food and play,
To all the message bearThere sounds above the class war din
The battle-cry we use:
Unite! you have a world to win,
Your chains alone to lose.”“When one defers to the authority of others as we all have to do on this forum when it comes to understanding the military strategy and tactics of the war, the importance of qualification becomes paramount.” No, the importance of truth is all that matters. – TS
And how is truth determined? By weighing up the evidence presented and examining the validity of that evidence based on knowledge and experience. Truth should not be an a priori conclusion – as it is in your case.
Many times you have stated that NATO is running out of weapons to supply Ukraine. You don’t differentiate between what is and what can be supplied. Presently, it is the state of the art technology
NATO is always upgrading its front-line so what happens to the weapons replaced? Spiked? Sold? No, they are stored. The military is the greatest of hoarders.
I don’t think you quite understand just how much armaments are held in stock. It is breathtaking.
USA could if it wished supply tomorrow Ukraine with 3,000 Abrams tanks that are presently surplus to requirements and parked in supply depots. So far America choose not to for various reasons. But it only takes an order from the US president to send them to Ukraine.
155mm artillery has been the first choice to send to Ukraine but how many 105mm howitzers, once NATO standard, do you think are available? Thousands with shells in abundance.
We are not talking about obsolete inefficient weapons but battle-worthy equipment. All would be adequate for Ukraine’s needs. Certainly, as a buffer stop-gap until the factories turn out the more up-to-date weapons.
The arms industry are rubbing its hand in glee at the prospect of contracts to replenish NATO supplies
The recent Romanian NATO conference reflects that Russia’s hopes to divide and weaken NATO have failed.
This war is extracting a great toll on BOTH sides.
Putin gambled and lost. Russia now has to either win an overwhelming victory and be prepared to have a repressive military occupation of Ukraine or Putin has to settle for a compromise and make concessions and accept the existence of an almost permanent state of hostility for many years to come.
Western corporation will be rubbing their hands with glee in anticipation of the contracts to repair Ukraine’s infrastructure and the corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs getting their ill-gotten gains.
