alanjjohnstone
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YMS, the latest speculation I have read is that the Russian forces will eventually gain ground in the Donbas and lose not just Bakhmut because the promised tanks and rocketry will arrive too late and the Ukrainians will withdraw to avoid encirclement.
Ukrainian forces plan to launch a Summer counter-offensive when they have been strengthened and proceed to cut off Crimea and re-occupy it at the price of the territory conceded at Donbas.
But it is speculation. Nobody has prophetic powers regardless of TS’s claim of prediction.
This might be an apt moment to draw attention to Glenn Morris’s upcoming talk on Zoom
What’s in a Name
February 24, 7:30 pmA look at how we see our politics in terms of the party names and perhaps how helpful, or otherwise, these names are. Also, how simple words tend to colour our view of each other both in this and other countries.
Adam will clarify it but the Electoral Commission will not let them register for elections under the name of the Socialist Party.
They run their candidates under the name Socialist Alternative.
We can’t stop what other groups seek to name themselves or what the media call them but we can legally protect our name for election purposes.
Our comrades in the Socialist Party of Canada face a similar problem with their name being hijacked.
In a sign of what to be expected if the anti-strike law arrives , the CWU has had to cancel its forthcoming strike because of Royal Mail threatening legal action on a technicality.
This long article from a Slovakian group is worth reading to put things into perspective that explores the economic causes that led to war.
“In the Donbas, Anti-Maidan’s rhetoric resonated in relation to the future of local industry, particularly coal mining, which could be threatened by European competition or environmental standards. Equally important was the notion that the Donbas had been feeding the rest of the country with its productivity for decades and should therefore have a greater say
– and certainly not let itself be bossed around by Kiev. To some, the Russian model of capitalism, with relatively higher incomes and pensions financed by oil and gas rents, may have seemed attractive after twenty
years of failed attempts to develop Ukraine. But here, the experience of a relative decline probably played a more important role than the absolute level of living standards. While in 1995, average wages in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts were 133% and 112% of the national average, respectively, by 2013 their position had deteriorated to 114% and 102%
national average…A section of the local capitalists and apparatchiks placed their bets on separatism. In March 2014, demonstrations of several thousand people took place in both regions, seeking to occupy official buildings……In the meantime, the armed forces of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DPR) and the “Luhansk People’s Republic” (LPR) were reinforced by additional troops from across the Russian border, composed of veterans or members of various fascist and nationalist groups. This was necessary because – as the Russian commander Girkin/Strelkov complained at a press conference in May 2014 – there were simply not enough local volunteers…
…. Instead of creating an acceptable compromise with
Kiev’s power, the Anti-Maidan spiraled out of control and, because of the Russian intervention, led to the emergence of new statelets. Their leadership consisted of little-known people. They were second- to third-tier
capitalists (the owner of a soap factory, the former director of a meat processing plant, the owner of a fuel and oil business, a coal trader), various
lackeys (a political marketer with a neo-Nazi past, the former manager of Akhmetov’s football team, an assistant to an MP), fraudsters by trade, and a number of members of the security apparatus (Ukrainian or Russian). For the former rulers of the Donbas, such as Akhmetov, the new situation was a disaster.
The local mining and manufacturing sectors were suddenly out of the reach of their masters and in serious trouble. Many plants were damaged by the fighting, others lost suppliers or customers. Infrastructure suffered as well. The “republics” also lost a lot of labor-power and local entrepreneurs as a result of emigration. They were cut off from state
subsidies and investment. The decrease in production reduced the tax base and customs revenues. As a result, what was once the core of the Donbas economy unraveled and the statelets were left unable to rebuild what the war had destroyed – let alone jumpstart any further development. The regimes in the DPR and the LPR have been militarily, politically, and economically subordinated to Russia and dependent on its assistance practically from the beginning…”https://karmina.red/posts/tragedy-of-ukrainian-working-class/
There is a follow-up article that is also of interest
https://karmina.red/posts/o-tragedii-ukrajinskej-triedy-pracujucich/
Google announced it was introducing a chatbot service, in a move anticipated to rival Microsoft’s AI-powered ChatGPT.
https://www.dw.com/en/google-to-introduce-ai-chatbot-service/a-64627185
It is hardly likely that pro-Putin sources (the only ones TD will accept) would acknowledge the connection with ultra-nationalist, neo-Nazi fascists.
However, there is ample evidence of official tolerance.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/07/15/dying-to-kill
“Managed Nationalism”, as Putin’s policy is named, began long before the war. It is documented in this study
A summary of the book is this article
TD’s effort is akin to pro-Trumpists trying to disassociate him from the Proud Boys and others such as evangelical right-wingers and refusing to accept anything that is not from Fox News and Newsmax sources.
I would not put any credence on either Russian or Ukrainian official figures.
This article strives to estimate the true numbers
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/12/12/inglorious-losses-en
It mentions as an aside that there have been prisoner exchanges but there has not been the exchange of the dead.
TD- “Try saying it to my face and I’ll happily break a few of your teeth.”
MODERATOR NOTICE
Name-calling is one thing, but raising the abuse level to actual physical threats is quite another.
DESIST
I will ban you if it happens again, regardless of when it happens. Treat this as your one and only final warning.
BD no counter-threats of violence. Let it go.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/featuring-death-grief-children-books-190010365.html
Featuring death and grief in children’s books can equip them with skills to navigate emotional terrain
TS – “It’s the risk one takes for signing up for such work.”
Ukraine compulsory conscripted all males of fighting age and forbade them to exit the country.
Russia had a mobilisation of 300,000 as there was a shortage of actual volunteers and failure to report is punishable.
I have posted my views on pet ownership on this thread and here is another link
“…Pet ownership’s more insidious injury is the hardening of our hearts for the sake of a selfish, possessive happiness. Rather than seeing other animals as autonomous beings with their own lives, desires and cultures, they are reduced to mere dolls. Living creatures become commodities that can be perfectly calibrated to one’s tastes – see the many “dog breed selectors” online. People crave the unconditional love pets offer, but such supplication requires mastery at the level of individual animals broken by “training”, control of a species’ genetic inheritance through inbreeding and the dominance of whole ecosystems to feed hundreds of millions of animals…”
“…The equivalent to 6% of the American cat and dog population (8 million animals) are abandoned at shelters every year – half of whom are then killed…”
“…Pets’ popularity has turned these humble animals into an economic and ecological force on a global scale. There are 900 million dogs and 700 million cats (both owned and feral) worldwide. Half of US households own an animal, while the number of pets in China has grown from virtually nil – dogs were once banned in Beijing – to 251 million. At $260bn, the global pet market is worth more than the solar and wind energy sectors combined…”
“…If US pets were a country, they would rank fifth globally in terms of meat consumption – greater than Germany…”
