alanjjohnstone
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Did you read the full article, dated 16th Feb, TS?
” Russian military reporter “Rybar”, who said Russian possession of the E40 and T0504 did not constitute operational encirclement.
“Thanks to the network of branched ring roads in the fields between the main routes, Ukrainian formations almost unhindered transfer reinforcements to the crucible of the Bakhmut meat grinder,” Rybar wrote.
Rybar also belied the claim that the E40 was taken or even under Russian fire control. He said Ukraine was preparing to tactically withdraw from Paraskoviivka in order to make a firmer stand at neighbouring Berkhovka, a way station on the E40 highway through which it was still able to supply Bakhmut with ammunition.
Prigozhin confirmed the Ukrainian resupply of men and ammunition.”My thinking is that Ukraine can lose control of Bahkmut but it still won’t make it a great strategic advance. 6 months to do it…how many months to take Kramatorsk?
In fact, vast swathes of the Donets-Luhansk area could be captured but it won’t lead to Ukraine’s capitulation or Russian victory.
I stick with the scenario that it will be a protracted prolonged war as I don’t see much movement towards any ceasefire armistice.
Karen Philippa Larsen, a global security researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies and one of the few academic experts in the world dedicated to studying the Wagner Group estimates that as many as 40,000, or 80 percent, of its fighters in Ukraine have either been killed, deserted or surrendered – most of them in the past few months alone.
“There are only around 10,000 of them still fighting,” she said, adding that the Wagner deaths are conveniently not included in Russia’s official statistics on losses because the fighters are not part of “the official structure”.
Are you claiming that an assault to capture a town that began almost six months ago, can be considered a success?
The Russians had captured the outskirts of Bahkmut some weeks ago. House-to-house fighting is ongoing.
A road from Chasiv Var is still re-supplying Ukrainian forces who are still in possession of the majority of the Bahkmut. All attempts to capture Chasiiv Var have been repelled.
Zelensky has indicated the possibility of a Ukrainian retreat from Bahkmut.
In a previous post, TS dismissively predicted the imminent fall of Bahkmut would be described as a Pyrrhic victory by anti-Russian media. It most like will be. It will not be militarily decisive although it will be something of a propaganda success for Russia,
Alexei Milchakov is co-founder of Rusich which has now been operationally incorporated into the Wagner Group.
There is no point in providing sources as these would be non-Russian approved media that TS will dismiss. But for others, a 2021 study is
Dmitry Valerievich Utkin of the Wagner Group sometimes referred to as its founder has nazi tattoos at the time when Yevgeny Prigozhin was denying connections with it.
There are many other neo-Nazi groups such as the Russian Imperial Movement [Legion]
https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/russian-imperial-movement-rim/report
https://www.latrobe.edu.au/news/articles/2022/opinion/russias-long-history-of-neo-nazis
BD’s claim that Putin tolerates Russian neo-Nazis stands.
No doubt TS will dismiss the BBC analysis of the Battle of Kiev as propaganda and keep to his own belief that it was a diversionary tactic without the intention of occupying Kiev, but the BBC’s interpretation of last year’s invasion plans is very much at odds with that view.
The Ukrainian army at Bakhmut so far has resisted encirclement and avoided retreat but at what cost?
It is no exaggeration that it is called the ‘meat grinder’, a bloody toll that is inflicted equally upon both sides.
Only future historians will be able to decide if it has all been worth it.
I recall TS earlier reproaching me for not thinking that the expected Russian offensive was already started.
If it is, then as some commentators have stated, the Russian advance is to be measured in metres and not kilometres.
But for sure, anyone making predictions about future developments on the battlefield has had to repeatedly correct and add caveats.
It seems despite all our technology, the manipulation of information still controls what we know, or more accurately, what we don’t know.
TS – BTW, the figure he states is 250k.
Can you recall his source for this figure or the methodology he used to calculate it if it is derived from his own studies?
What is his figure for the Russian dead and wounded?
Albeit, September 2022 statistics
Ukrainian forces amounted to between 201,000 and 202,000 at the beginning of the war, and since then they have suffered losses of around 100,000, with 61,207 killed and 49,368 others wounded.
Russian dead at 5,937
90% of the Russian troops who have been wounded during the fighting, return to active duty after treatment.
https://www.armenpress.am/eng/news/1093053
I can’t see Ukrainian deaths being 10 times higher than Russian fatalities back in September.
BBC/Mediazona corroborated and verifiable figures for up to February 12th, is 14,093 Russia dead (very likely an underestimate)
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng
As for Shoigi’s 90% return to duty of the Russian wounded, I think we can take that with a grain of salt even if TASS says it 97% with the mortality rate among wounded fighters taken to military medical institutions is “less than half a percent”.
Robbo – “These two idiots grandstanding…”
At first, I thought you meant Putin and Biden making their grandiose belligerent speeches.
BD, Prigozhin said that the country’s defence minister and chief of general staff were depriving his fighters of munitions. He accused them of trying to destroy Wagner so somebody is thrilled.
BD – “I can’t see anywhere on line actually stating a figure of deaths of Ukrainian troops on any line article, although I am happy to be directed to them)”
TS, can you offer BD the appropriate link
The Wee Frees and the SNP.
Kate Forbes, in the running for the leadership is a member of the Calvinistic Free Church of Scotland so it is no surprise when opposes same-sex marriage, abortion clinic buffer zones, banning conversion practices and on gender recognition.
Humza Yousaf, the other contender, is a practising Muslim, and opposes making the next general election a de facto independence referendum
Ash Regan, a 3rd candidate for the job, resigned from the government over the transgender law.
After a 6 month trial of the 61 companies that took part, 56 said they would continue with the four-day week, at least for now, while 18 said the policy was a permanent change.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/feb/21/four-day-week-uk-trial-success-pattern
39% said they were less stressed, 40% were sleeping better and 54% said it was easier to balance work and home responsibilities. The number of sick days taken during the trial fell by about two-thirds and 57% fewer staff left the firms taking part compared with the same period a year earlier.
Joe Ryle, the director of the 4 Day Week Campaign, called the trial a “major breakthrough moment”, adding: “Across a wide variety of sectors, wellbeing has improved dramatically for staff; and business productivity has either been maintained or improved in nearly every case. We’re really pleased with the results and hopefully it does show that the time to roll out a four-day week more widely has surely come.”
Sanctions against Russia ineffective
Traders have found ways to get money into and out of Russia, through barter, routing transactions through countries which are not taking part in sanctions or even using cryptocurrencies.
The economy contracted by 2.1%, according to the country’s statistics agency, but this was less than its previous prediction of a 12% fall.
Rising global prices for oil, gas, petroleum products and other Russian exports, including food and fertilizers, helped to boost Russia’s export revenues.
While hundreds of Western companies withdrew from Russia, local entrepreneurs picked up the slack.
Agriculture, construction and hospitality all grew.
Producing equipment for Russia’s armed forces has also kept the country’s factories busy, boosting the economy by making weapons instead of cars. Military security and public administration expanded by 4.1% last year.
Junior Doctors – Return More than three-quarters with 98% voting in favour of action.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-64653488
Now expected to take part in a 72-hour walkout, possibly as early as mid-March.
