Whatever happened to “peak oil”?

[ralfy]

ALB wrote:

The argument is not about whether oil is or is not an "infinite" resource. Of course it isn't. It's about whether "peak oil" has been reached or is likely be in the near future. To argue that peak oil has not yet been reached or won't be for many years is not to argue that oil is an infinite resource. You yourself recognise this when you write later:

Oil discoveries peaked in 1964. Oil production for the U.S. peaked in 1970. Per capita oil production worldwide peaked in 1979. Two-thirds of oil-producing countries peaked or have gone past peak. Crude oil production peaked in 2005.

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Personally, I think you are exaggerating here, just as the Club of Rome did in the 1970s.

I have no idea what this means. Am I exaggerating because I am arguing that questioning peak oil is equivalent to arguing that oil is an infinite resource? Or am I exaggerating the physical limitations of the biosphere because there's an abundance of resources?

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Thanks for indicating what you think must be done about it, as here:.As I said, there is no chance of these adjustments taking place under capitalism, at least not in a rational and timely way. The only framework within which this could take place is world socialism. as explained in this article:http://www.worldsocialism.org/spgb/socialist-standard/1980s/1987/no-996-august-1987/one-green-world

But I never argued that they will take place under capitalism. If any, a global capitalist economy will require more resource use to ensure continuous economic growth. Why do you think it is now resorting to unconventional oil? 

[ALB]

There's an article in today's Times by Dieter Helm, Professor of Energy Policy at Oxford University, where he makes the following claim:

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There is no shortage of oil, gas or coal. We are not running out of any of them. There is enough to fry the planet many times over.

A summary of the article can be found here:http://www.thegwpf.org/dieter-helm-lost-gamble-forcing-energy-bills/The whole article shows why it is impossible to pursue a rational energy policy under capitalism as the relative prices of the various source of energy are always changing, with governments forced to go for the cheapest for the capitalist industries within their borders to remain "competitive".So much for peak oil. It looks as if it is the scare over this that has peaked. But, as long as energy derived from burning fossil fuels is cheaper than from using renewable sources, this is what will happen. So the danger is not the collapse of capitalism through oil running out but of more CO2 being emitted affecting global warming.

[alanjjohnstone]

Ahhh…but what about Peak Phosphorus  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus

[alanjjohnstone]

This article offers links to counter the anti-technos or the eco-doomers as it calls themhttp://blogs.discovermagazine.com/collideascape/2013/12/20/misguided-solutions-well-intentioned-eco-doomers/#.UrT0MNIW2z4

[alanjjohnstone]

To stir the pot http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession "The final peak is going to be decided by the price – how much can we afford to pay?", Dr. Miller told me in an interview about his work. "If we can afford to pay $150 per barrel, we could certainly produce more given a few years of lead time for new developments, but it would break economies again." Miller argues that for all intents and purposes, peak oil has arrived…Although he is dismissive of shale oil and gas' capacity to prevent a peak and subsequent long decline in global oil production, Miller recognises that there is still some leeway that could bring significant, if temporary dividends for US economic growth – though only as "a relatively short-lived phenomenon"…Miller and Sorrell point out that "most authors" in the special edition "accept that conventional oil resources are at an advanced stage of depletion and that liquid fuels will become more expensive and increasingly scarce." The shale revolution can provide only "short-term relief", but is otherwise "unlikely to make a significant difference in the longer term."

[alanjjohnstone]

http://www.countercurrents.org/tverberg100314.htm "This article may be of interest if only to provide a host of statistical graphs. Cost of oil extraction has been rising rapidly (10.9% per year) but oil prices have been flat. Major oil companies are finding their profits squeezed, and have recently announced plans to sell off part of their assets in order to have funds to pay their dividends. Such an approach is likely to lead to an eventual drop in oil production"

[ALB]

Ralfy has revived a discussion on libcom from 2007 on this. One of the articles referred to in the earlier discussion is this one from a couple of Irish anarchists:http://www.indymedia.ie/article/81815It's quite an intelligent and well-balanced analysis (but it's Thomas not John Malthus).

[ALB]

They're giving Ralfy a real run for his money on libcom. See from here on:http://libcom.org/forums/thought/peak-oil#comment-535849

[alanjjohnstone]

This is worth a readhttp://www.truth-out.org/news/item/25024-common-minerals-lifeblood-of-the-economic-system-disappearing-along-with-fossil-fuelsOne of the comments to the article is very apt and supportive of our view that the Earth is sustainable if properly organised. (Paul Palmer from zero waste institute).

[Young Master Smeet]

This is a very interesting article:http://theconversation.com/sun-and-wind-could-finally-make-electricity-too-cheap-to-meter-34166

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When the UK’s electricity industry was privatised in the 1990s its power plants had the capacity to generate more than was needed. This was despite the fact many of these plants had already been in service for decades. The national transmission network was also well established. This meant the cost of electricity was largely determined by fuel prices – mainly coal and gas.

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A free market for electricity would be likely to produce extremely high prices in winter, particularly at periods of peak demand, but very low prices at times when the demand can be met entirely by renewable energy. If these energy costs are passed on to the customer, we could see the cost of using an electric kettle to make a cup of tea at 18:30 in January being many pounds, but electricity costing almost nothing during long periods in the summer.

The market isn't working for providing energy (although the above article does seem to ignore the possibility of using renewables to produce hydrocarbons for later use, so wind can make gas). 

[alanjjohnstone]

Our blog today posted a story on how the power utility industry in America in alliance with the fossil fuel industry are intent upon imposing taxes upon homeowners who install solar panel systems. http://socialismoryourmoneyback.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-sun-is-owned-by-no-one.html

[Young Master Smeet]

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/0115/070115-fossil-fuels

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A third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80% of current coal reserves globally should remain in the ground and not be used before 2050 if global warming is to stay below the 2°C target agreed by policy makers, according to new research by the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources…The authors show that the overwhelming majority of the huge coal reserves in China, Russia and the United States should remain unused along with over 260 thousand million barrels oil reserves in the Middle East, equivalent to all of the oil reserves held by Saudi Arabia. The Middle East should also leave over 60% of its gas reserves in the ground

That shows, in part, the vastness of reserves, and our ability to adjudge how much is there, and to think about using them in such  way as to manage them for future generations into perpetuity.

[alanjjohnstone]

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and to think about using them in such  way as to manage them for future generations into perpetuity.

As today's SOYMB blog commented on the report

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Only socialism can fully ascribe and abide with the Great Law of the Iroquois:“In all of your deliberations in the Confederate Council, in your efforts at law making, in all your official acts, self-interest shall be cast into oblivion. Cast not over your shoulder behind you the warnings of the nephews and nieces should they chide you for any error or wrong you may do, but return to the way of the Great Law which is just and right. Look and listen for the welfare of the whole people and have always in view not only the present but also the coming generations, even those whose faces are yet beneath the surface of the ground – the unborn of the future Nation.”

http://socialismoryourmoneyback.blogspot.com/2015/01/oil-in-soil-coal-in-hole.html

[alanjjohnstone]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/11/oil-company-fossil-fuels-jeremy-leggett-soaring-costs-risky-energy-projectsTotal, one of the major oil companies is predicted to exit the oil business…and oil companies sre feeling morally guilty about causing climate change …but then he adds at the end BP and Shell are going backwards not forward…so does that mean they pick up the gap in market created by no Total. 

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Leggett says despite the price collapse due to oversupply and a lack of demand, he remains convinced that the “peak oil” theory that supplies will not be able to meet demand eventually remains intact. This is not because there are not the oil or gas reserves in the ground to meet future growth but because they are too costly and environmentally dangerous to produce, he argues. “I would say to both the utility industry and the oil and gas industry: its game over, guys. You have got to identify the point at which it’s all going to be thoroughly changed and you have got to map back from it,” he said.

[Young Master Smeet]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.htmlThis is quite extraordinary, the Suadis may well be fubarred. 

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OPEC now faces a permanent headwind. Each rise in price will be capped by a surge in US output. The only constraint is the scale of US reserves that can be extracted at mid-cost, and these may be bigger than originally supposed, not to mention the parallel possibilities in Argentina and Australia, or the possibility for "clean fracking" in China as plasma pulse technology cuts water needs.

Saudi needs oil to hit $106 but currently it can't get it above $55: the US has the technology for shale and fracking, and ity can be turned on and off quickly.

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Saudi Arabia is effectively beached. It relies on oil for 90pc of its budget revenues. There is no other industry to speak of, a full fifty years after the oil bonanza began.

So, whilst the low hanging fruit has been picked, new technology has come along meaning we can easily reach the hard to get oil: the market is speeding up the extraction of the hydrocarbons we need to stay in the ground to see of AGW.

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