TUSC and UKIP: fishing in same pond?
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The above is, apparently, a chart of where immigrant populations are, versus a map of UKIP voting intentions (right) noticeably, UKIP are where immirgants aren't: this gives grist to the idea that people are more moved to defend what they have than to get somethign new.However, I'd caution accepting that it's blue-collar working class who form the back bone of UKIP, labour are only slated to lose about 6% of their votes to UKIP, where UKIP get votes in Labour heartlands it's by activating discouraged Tory voers (or natural Tories who wouldn't vote for the party).UKIP got thumped to bits in London, they got murderated in Blackbird Leys they clearly won over former Tories, but got thumped by Labour. I can't find the chart now, but the transfers from labour to UKIP will be much fewer than from the Tories (percentage points wise) I'll hav anothr look for it this evening.
Admittedly:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_electionThis does show UKIP eating both main parties (though Tories got eaten first). In my travels looking for a particular chart (I'll find it if it kills me) I do find a lot of right-wing paper talking up UKIPs inroads into the traditonal working class. On policy issues, it's worth noting UKIP playing the democracy card, both in its call for a referendum, but also Carswell is into direct democracy as well, this could also be a way of understanding their growth. KLabour has basically to turn its back on democracy (indeed, direct democracy could well be a reaction to the gramscian hegemonic strategy of Blairism)…
I too found it hard to believe that UKIP, as a Tory breakway with a laissez-faire capitalist ideology, would appeal to Old Labour voters even though, as you point out, some of the blue-collar workers concerned may well have been Working Class Tories. But what I saw in Rochester and the Oxford local by-election results and the article in that book have convinced me otherwise. The article by the way was by Matthew Goodwin who is the co-author of a book called Revolt on the Right: Explaining Public Support for the Radical Right in Britain. He writes about here:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/05/left-behind-voters-only-ukip-understandsI agree with you that UKIP is more a danger to the Tories than Labour as it will be attracting ordinary Tory workers. Maybe the Oxford results suggest something: where UKIP stood they got about 13.5% of the vote, where they didn't but TUSC did TUSC got 6%. This back-of-the-envelope calculation could suggest that in a Labour-dominated "working class area" about half the UKIP vote would come from Old Labour and about half from disaffected Tories. It won't make any difference to the result though as Labour will still romp home.You're right that, for obvious reasons, UKIP doesn't stand a chance in London. It doesn't really in Oxford either. In fact, it's a little known fact that, apart from Gibraltar, Oxford was the only counting area in the recent Euroelections where the LibDems got more votes than UKIP (and one of the areas where we beat the BNP). Sounds like a very civilised place to live in.
i think one point should be high-lighted, that the UKIP politics are being validated by all the mainstream parties, despite their caveats and attempts to distance themselves from UKIP, so there fore the public perception is that UKIP are basically correct and so also the more honest and probably the more likely to fulfil their promises. It has always been reported in the polls that those high anti-immigrant prejudice are in areas of low-immigration…the fear of the unknown and the ease to speculate negatively to influence opinion. I agree that if given the ressponsibility of governing they will do what all political parties do…adapt to reality, as have the Green Party.But the question then will be, will the disillusionment be a spring back to the "left" or a push for an even more extreme "right" of the Golden Dawn order.I am surprised that the pro-EU factions have not been appealing more to all those ex-pats in Europe (and also all those holiday home owners in Spain and Portugal with future plans to re-locate or have rental income from them) and mobilising their postal votes. For every EU migrant in the UK, there is a UK ex-pat in the EU. And if the UK withdrew from the EU all those pensioners guaranteed the annual increase will face the threat of losing that if they opt to stay in their EU country of choiuce, just as we, non-EU ex-pats suffer a frozen pension (except for some few strange exceptions).
alanjjohnstone wrote:i think one point should be high-lighted, that the UKIP politics are being validated by all the mainstream parties, despite their caveats and attempts to distance themselves from UKIP, so there fore the public perception is that UKIP are basically correct and so also the more honest and probably the more likely to fulfil their promises.I think you've hit the nail on the head here, when the Tories call Ukip fruitcakes and loons, then promise a tougher stance on immigration they belie their own credibility and hand it over to Ukip.
Impossibilist1904 has just put up the article that appeared in the Socialist Standard of the time on the Blackbird Leys riots of 1991, entitled "Dreaming spires and screaming tyres":http://socialiststandardmyspace.blogspot.co.uk/It will eventually appear in the Socialist Standard archives section too.
I suppose this is more typical of UKIP support and supporters in Oxfordshire if not in Oxford itself:
Quote:Bicester North councillor Jim Tucker announced he was joining the anti-EU party led by Nigel Farage following his resignation as a Tory on September 30.Describing his reason for leaving the Conservatives Mr Tucker said: “Three words: sovereignty, family and liberty – three of the core Conservative values that have been abandoned and that gap has been filled by UKIP.”http://may2015.com/ideas/is-ukip-hurting-labour/
Quote:He goes on to suggest that “New Labour’s move to the liberal consensus on the EU and immigration in 2001, 2005 and 2010 left many of their core voters out in the cold a long time before Ukip was around”.Evans confirmed his findings at the constituency level, by looking at who Ukip voters in “Labour seats” voted for in 2010 and 2005 (the piece doesn’t elaborate on “Labour seats” – presumably they mean the 258 the party won in 2010).He found only 18 per cent of Ukippers in Labour seats are 2010 Labour voters, whereas 39 per cent are 2010 Tories. But if you look back to 2005, 30 per cent of Ukippers voted Labour, while 31 per cent voted Tory.What policy are SPGB going to run in elections in Oxford, is it going to be anti – cuts …. whatever it is should be rooted in the experiences of working class life and real campaigns ….
JamesH81 wrote:What policy are SPGB going to run in elections in Oxford, is it going to be anti – cuts …. whatever it is should be rooted in the experiences of working class life and real campaigns ….Socialism – the clue's in our name.
But the point James makes is valid…We have to make the idea of socialism resonate with our audience so they can relate it to their own lives and situation. We have to make socialism an urgency and immediancy. Its a tall order to do and there will be a variety of approaches to take to succeed in that. We are obliged to go further than simply be anti-cuts. This may mean disillusioning some who may well be sympathetic to aspects of our case but who nevertheless advocate dead-ends. The manner in which we express our criticism is important and also from where we make them. Too often it seems to me we are viewed as outsiders, rather than participating in opposition to capitalism as part of the working class movement with a legitimate right to air our opinions. I think when we are free to explain our full case we are able to dispel many of the mis-conceptions that exist about our politics. We have arguments that are full of caveats and particular nuances and these are often not emphasised enough because of lack of opportunity. What i would like from James is to hear actual specifics on what working class experiences and campaigns we should be highlighting and providing answers to. And how would he like to hear them presented.
James, we oppose and are against all attacks on the working class, we oppose austerity, everything worth getting angry about we get angry about but unlike other groups we advocate socialism as the solution. Our opposition is expressed by exposing capitalism as the cause.Campaigning against specific problems thrown up by capitalism would dilute our energy, besides it would be like pissing in the ocean, an absolute waste of time.An analogy would be slaves campaigning for better food, clean straw to sleep on and longer less restrictive chains.Join the movement to abolish slavery all together
James have a look at this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5sp7SZzDiI
JamesH81 wrote:What policy are SPGB going to run in elections in Oxford, is it going to be anti – cuts …. whatever it is should be rooted in the experiences of working class life and real campaigns ….We will campaign for the establishment of a system of society based upon the common ownership and democratic control of the means and instruments for producing and distributing wealth by and in the interest of the whole community.That the struggle for higher wages and shorter hours may result in greater intensification of labour is no argument against the prosecution of that struggle. It does, however, doom any attempt of the workers to materially alter their conditions by means of such a struggle alone. To become tired out in six hours instead of ten may be a gain—we are not concerned to argue that it is not. The thing to be remembered is that one is tired out. The struggle, then, of itself, fails. It cannot alter the essential conditions of working-class existence. It must be maintained to resist the worsening of working-class existence, but it cannot lift the. workers from that vicious circle wherein a victory in the matter of hours or wages is answered by greater intensification of labour and increased insecurity. It can never lift them above poverty and anxiety. .Therefore the struggle must be supplemented by something else if any extensive and permanent improvement in the position of the working class is to be secured.The system fails in the distribution of the wealth that is produced.We know why it fails in distribution. It is because the workers' demand upon the wealth they produce is limited to the amount which is necessary to enable them to produce it. The reason for this is, of course, that the worker has to sell his labour-power, and has only the price thereof on which to live.This means that the new basis of society must be such as will remove from the workers the need to sell their labour-power to others. It must, therefore, give them free access to the means of living.One thing is certain. If the workers are to have free access to the means of living, those means must not he in the ownership and control of any section of society.It is not for us to build up in detail the social system that will arise from the common ownership and democratic control of the instruments of labour. Our knowledge of the conditions which will prevail at the time of the change, and of the outlook upon life of people who are free to arrange matters pretty much as "they wish", is not extensive enough to warrant us seriously attempting to foretell the details of the future social system.We can only state the broad changes that we know must arise from the revolution in the social base.The most obvious result of the establishment of common ownership of the means and instruments for producing and distributing wealth is. that the wages system would be abolished.
I liked that video, I'm involved in my local community and had success in building a community centre in Broughton gate, Milton Keynes.What I'm not interested is having a Russell Brand / Green Party / Left Unity pro – drugs policy and cannot see any of that with SPGB, I'm coming over cos of my bad experience with substances, was involved at the club 414 in Brixton Psy – Trance and looking for some new SPGB friends.I promote anything with reason of Socialism, that can abolish debt amongst workers and nations …. James H
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