Trump as president again?
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Trump is inching himself into the lead again and looks like winning. The best guide are bookmakers’ odds.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winnerYes of course, no-one thinks this method is infallible.
Interestingly, as the person who made the keys says in that video, the time they didn’t work was because there was voter interference
“It was a stolen election. Based on the actual votes, Al Gore should have won going away, except for the discarding of ballots cast by Black voters who were 95% for Gore. I proved this in my report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. One out of every nine to 10 ballots cast by a Black voter was thrown out, as opposed to one out of 50 cast by a white voter.
“Most of those were not so-called hanging chads. They were over-votes because Black people were told punch in Gore and then write in Gore, just to be sure, and those ballots were all discarded. Political scientists have since looked at the election and proved I was right. Al Gore, based on the intent of the voters, should have won by tens of thousands of votes.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election
And the US presumes to criticise other states for ballot rigging. I remember following that election but never understood why Gore didn’t take his appeal all the way to the Supreme Court. Perhaps because the US political establishment didn’t want the world to see their presidential election settled by a court or to see their top court endorsing ballot rigging.
The US elections as battle of the multibillionaires : Gates v. Musk.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-donated-50-million-223354093.html
Well, it’s happened. If you noticed that the percentage votes for the two main candidates in the various states didn’t add up to 100% it will be because there were other candidates standing;
According to ITV news, Trump has won 266 electoral college votes & Harris has won 219.
This means there are 53 more electoral college votes to be cast; so, Harris could still get the (at least) 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
I hope Harris does win; not because she’s significantly better than Trump, but because the MSM will spend the next 4 years blaming the problems caused by capitalism on Trump (if he wins).
Trump has won.
All I will write is, thank god for the amendment that limits US presidents to two terms.
A piece on Trump in the Gruniard. Probably right to say Trump, whatever his personal inclinations, will find it impossible to install some kind of fascist regime
It will be interesting to see what happens on the foreign policy front. Probably the Ukraine situation will end sooner but tensions with China could rise. Who knows?
A few thoughts:
1: Irrationality: I think we have to assume that 71 million Americans knew what they were voting for, and support Trumps policies, these policies appear irrational to us, partly because they are refracted through local propaganda (and, we aren’t the intended audience of these policies).
2: American democracy is big and complicated, some radical measures (minimum wage rises, etc.) won referendums at the same time as Trump was elected. There is, apparently, a disconnect between local action and the perception of the distant ‘Washington elite’ that Trump has worked on very hard.
3: Citizenship as a form of property is under theorised, although it tends not to be manual workers who mostly get exercised about illegal migration, etc. clearly some see a kind of ‘citizenship rent’ as being worth supporting (backed up by tariffs, etc. and winning trade wars). Is imperialism winning votes?
4: Its worth noting that trumps vote was static, the Democrat vote collapsed, in part some are blaming Gaza, I do wonder if the slight margins of sexism (say worth 5% of the vote) come into play in a tight contest – say, would Walz on his own have won?
5: Trump only has 4 years, that’s not enough time to consolidate any big structural changes, although he looks to have the House and the Senate, and he may be able to appoint a couple more Supreme Court judges…According to BBC News, 48% of Hispanic-Americans & 50% of Asian-Americans voted for Trump! Can you imagine!
The dangers that are posed by the Trump election (mass detainment of ‘illegals’, political retribution through abuse of the legal system, loss of access to reproductive health-care, an increase in fossil fuel extraction, and it goes on…) should be taken seriously.
This time Trump is surrounded by yes men and 1/3 (which will rise to 5 out of 9 in the coming years) of the Supreme Court has been appointed by him.
Mere ‘belief’ in democratic resilience (as the website front page currently claims) is beginning to look a bit weak.
I thought this FT podcast is worth listening to, or reading.
https://www.ft.com/content/3686960c-8704-457c-a1cf-695e5e2665d8
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