Russian Tensions
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Russia can still threaten with nuclear weapons, and even use them, ending us all.
And NATO might stupidly think it can get in first, with nuclear missiles right by the border. Otherwise, why encircle Russia and deploy the missiles in the first place, increasing Putin’s popularity and solidifying his pact with China?War and military confrontation is the last resource that the capitalist might use. At the present stage of the conflict, they are not going to use atomic weapons, they might destroy each other. The USA and the USRR had the worst confrontation and they never used atomic weapons
I’m always rather uncertain by what is meant by ‘Russian’ or ‘Chinese’ interests or any other nation state for that matter. Presumably we’re talking about ruling classes here. But in these days of global capitalism surely the 1% have investments in many multinational companies so what defines their ‘national interests’? Isn’t Putin’s egotism a factor? Do the international bourgeoisie still identify with the one nation state within which they were born?
I think we are talking about the natural resources of russia
Steven Pinker considers Ukraine an exception.
https://www.vox.com/2015/6/4/8725775/pinker-capitalism
ZB: Russia under Vladimir Putin seems to be a clear exception to this pattern — clearly, Putin thinks waging war in Ukraine is worth the cost in international sanctions and opprobrium, not to mention lives lost. Why do you think that is?
SP: I think there’s been backsliding. Gorbachev clearly felt it: that’s why he didn’t call out the tanks when the Berlin Wall fell. He clearly wanted to avoid military confrontations that would result in hundreds and thousands of deaths.
Putin is definitely backsliding, and he’s quite explicit about it. He places a high value on recapturing Russian national grandeur. That’s a value that obviously can be at odds with preservation of lives.
Regards my earlier question about Nord Stream 2
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60151839
The US has threatened to halt the opening of a key pipeline that would send Russian gas to Western Europe, if Russia invades Ukraine.
“I want to be very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward,” US state department spokesman Ned Price told NPR. He added that he was “not going to get into the specifics” of how it would be stopped, and questions remain over whether the US would have the power to cancel the project. “We will work with Germany to ensure it does not move forward.”
While the US insisted that it would stop the opening of the pipeline completely, Germany only said it would not rule out imposing sanctions on the project.
Could thus widen to a EU-US trade conflict?
Biden warned Ukraine’s president that there is a “distinct possibility” Russia could take military action against Ukraine in February.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-crisis-live-updates-1b213930aeced003b990adb474ef722b
Interesting headline in today’s Times of an article by Gerard Baker: “Striking a deal with Putin is not surrender”. He suggests offering him “some concessions that don’t have to look like surrender. Ukraine is not joining NATO in his lifetime, for starters.”
Yes, but that’s not official in any way. Are we to expect such subtlety from those in power?
I think we are. That’s why they employ and train lawyers and diplomats — to draft provisos and let-out clauses in small print !
The relationship between individual capitalists and the state, raised by Wez, is not straightforward. It is not as if capitalists directly control the state or can tell those in charge of it what to do. For a start, the various members of a national capitalist class are not a monolithic bloc with a common interest on day-to-day issues. That’s why there are competing parties and interest groups seeking to place those who support their sectional interest in office or to lobby those who do control the government to act in their interest.
The role of the state is to represent the general interest of its national capitalist class, which might not be the interest of all sections; in fact probably won’t be. It might not even be in the interests of any of them. I don’t know whether the Russian oligarchs with money invested in property in London are worried about Ukraine joining NATO (or whether the Ukrainian oligarchs next door are either) but those in charge of the Russian state (Putin & Co) evidently do, considering Ukraine joining NATO to be a threat to the overall interest of Russian capitalism.
It just appears to me that, over the past decade or so, the representatives of the Russian state have been the side that is pro-diplomacy, calm and rational; whereas the US and NATO are every day flirting with all-out war – like poking someone who doesn’t want to fight you and keeping on poking, then shoving and pushing.
Russia has not yet decided whether to attack Ukraine but is prepared to do so, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service has said.
“I believe that the decision to attack has not yet been made,” Bruno Kahl told Reuters.
The Ukrainian defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said on Friday that the total number of Russian troops near the border was about 130,000, a number comparable to Moscow’s military buildup in spring 2021, when it eventually pulled its forces back after massive military exercises.
“We haven’t observed any events or actions of military character that significantly differ from what was going on last spring,” with the exception of the deployment to Belarus, Reznikov said.
This is fascinating essay by (allegedly) Putin:
Here
“What can be said to this? Things change: countries and communities are no exception. Of course, some part of a people in the process of its development, influenced by a number of reasons and historical circumstances, can become aware of itself as a separate nation at a certain moment. How should we treat that? There is only one answer: with respect!”“I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.”
He considers the ‘anti-Russian’ agenda to be the work of 3rd Parties on Ukraine.
The whole thing reads very much like what we can expect from British patriots should Scotland ever gain independence…
ALB says: ‘the various members of a national capitalist class are not a monolithic bloc with a common interest on day-to-day issues.’
then goes on to say: ‘… considering Ukraine joining NATO to be a threat to the overall interest of Russian capitalism.’
So who decides national policy if the interests of the ruling class are fractured? It seems to me that the ideology of national interests is anachronistic for both the ruling and working classes. I do not like the rhetoric of Russia does that or China thinks this etc. which I believe to be very tabloid and just BS. Socialists should not be part of this ideological debate and should rather expose it for what it is – meaningless tribal atavistic nonsense.Here's a time-lapse of all of the United Kingdom to #Ukraine weapons airlift flights from the morning of the 17th of January to this very minute on the 19th of January 2022. The UK has no intention of letting Ukraine fall. pic.twitter.com/p4DcNv25mt
— George Allison (@geoallison) January 19, 2022
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