Russian Tensions
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Peace talks to begin
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-agrees-to-peace-talks-with-russia-live-updates/a-60931396
“We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River,” Zelenskyy said
It may, however, be a drawn-out situation until senior government officials are face to face.
Has Biden responded at all?
U.S. remarkably calm.
Ukrainian foreign ministry not sounding like it will make peace. It’s calling for more weapons and volunteers.
He may think the mass destruction of nuclear war better than loss of power. He may actually have gone insane.
He says sanctions are a reason for his decision. As a super-capitalist, maybe these would push him to press the button.
Notice the Communist Party rep in the Duma has opposed the war.
This is Putin’s third threat (and first physical move toward) of apocalypse, whilst the West has not done likewise.
Re the nuclear threat, my take is that it might be that Putin thinks he might have pissed on his chips.
Evidenced by what we read from the media (with all of the caveats that must include) some of the thoughts I have come to include:
Reports of 1/2 of troop numbers being engaged does not imply that that the Russians are holding back, only having 1/2 forces is logical for any military strategist, it is necessary to have strategic reserves, giving flexibility if necessary and it also allows you to supplement logistics.
From a military point of view it might also be that Russia has been relying on its ferocious reputation from WW2 for a little too long. If Ukraine can hold off 1/4 of Russia’s standing army without the nuclear threat, then from a conventional army point of view it may be that is some ways Russia appear to be a bit of a busted flush. If they are struggling with that, then taking on Poland, the Baltic nations, Rumania, Hungary, etc. would be well beyond their grasp.
In terms of the technology of war, there is always a little bit of guesswork of what works and what doesn’t and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Although Ukraine has a large amount of ageing Soviet/Russian armaments, it has some of its own designed armoured personnel carriers and it has large numbers of Western designed anti tank and anti aircraft systems. It might be that the some of the Russian systems are not as robust as were first thought, certainly there have been many reports of aircraft being downed and tanks being destroyed, which seems to indicate that these systems are more effective than the Russians thought.
Again this may be conjecture, but the seeing increase in the degree of confidence that NATO members may be showing (agreeing to more arms, the Germans signing off deployment of weapons, etc) might be a result of better than expected performance from the Ukrainian side and the threat of going nuclear may be because the Russians (or really Putin and his mates) think that their forces have achieved less than what they think they should have done.
How far the impact of all of this has on Putin is debatable though. He appears to have more control of the state machine and more control of the political system than anyone since Stalin.
I have been rereading Michael Voslensky’s Nomiklatura, which discussed the appointment of Stalin’s successors and his take was that the cabal at the top of the Soviet Communist Party deliberately appointed nonentities, who could be removed by his rivals as necessary. Putin doesn’t appear to have any rivals and as such so getting rid of him might not be as easy.
Here are some politicians admitting that their sanctions against Russia will make things worse for ordinary people in this country. It is all very well them saying that this is a price worth paying to bring Ukraine into the NATO sphere of influence, but it won’t be paid by them and they didn’t ask us any more than Putin did before launching Russia’s invasion. And they say what they are doing is to defend democracy.
These are talks about talks.
And as they are taking place with hopefully an accompanying reduction in the fighting, re-supply and digging into more secure defences will happen. The war will go on but at a lower intensity.
It is a painful reality call to realise just how impotent the existing workers’ movement really is, much less the socialist/anarchist sector. It exercises no influence whatsoever. It is an irrelevance in the decision-making of our rulers. It is given as a taken that we will all fall in line behind our respective governments.
How different it could all be.
BD: From a military point of view it might also be that Russia has been relying on its ferocious reputation from WW2 for a little too long.
This time they do not have 20 million people willing to die for Stalin or the so-called socialist homeland, and the fight in Ukraine has shown that despite all the modern weapons they have not been so effective when several aeroplanes and tanks have been destroyed, In Afghanistan, it was a similar situation and they were defeated
He doesn’t need any support to obliterate us all, apart from the generals and his coterie. The world’s workers will be slaughtered in our beds without any warning, let alone any need to solicit our support.
This was not the case in 1939.
A Russian anarchist in Ukraine interviewed
(once again Kurdistan is cited as a possible scenario of resistance)
And from a Russian anarchist group
(“…our decision to support Ukraine in this conflict—let’s call them geopolitical reasons. But they are not even the primary reasons. The most important reasons are internal moral ones: because the simple truth is that Russia is the aggressor…)
And from another anarchist group, same webpage
“…Ukrainian anarchists are joining in the territorial defense of their cities. It is now harder for them than for people in Russia, but this is one and the same defense. This is the defense of freedom against dictatorship, of will against bondage, of normal people against deranged presidents…”
The Latest
Sweden announced it would give military aid to Ukraine, the first time it has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union’s 1939 invasion of Finland, said Magdalena Andersson, the prime minister.
The European Union will also supply weapons for Ukraine as it fights against Russia’s invasion, officials said
“For the first time ever, the European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said.
EU has announced it will ban Russian-state backed television channels RT and Sputnik
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund will divest its Russian assets
BP said it had decided to exit its 19.75 % stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft.
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