Russian Tensions
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I don’t think you can really tell how Trump will handle the Russo-Ukrainian War, seeing as how he’s an unpredictable right-wing demagogue who is guided more by self-interest than any kind of consistent principles or world view. During his presidency from 2017 to 2021, he was not particularly close to Ukraine amid the Ukrainian Civil War, in which Russia was of course supporting the separatists. He notably withheld aid from Ukraine as part of the quid pro quo to get Zelensky to investigate Biden and his son. Since the invasion, Trump has also claimed that he could end the war on day one if re-elected, but he has never really spelled out any kind of actual plan, with the exception of hinting at possibly cutting off aid to Ukraine if Zelensky does not agree to negotiate with Russia. Cutting off aid or pressuring Ukraine to negotiate could be effective considering how continuing to arm Ukraine until they expel Russia, which is very unlikely to happen, would not solve the underlying issues that created the tensions in the first place. One could also note that Trump did little to de-escalate the civil war or to improve relations between Russia and Ukraine during his presidency, so his claims that he could quickly resolve the matter seem slightly dubious.
It is also probably a good thing that Trump, by his own admission, had originally not been too familiar with what NATO actually was and has not really shown much commitment to it. It is an organization/alliance that should have dissolved following the end of the Cold War (when it was originally aimed at the Soviet Union), and preferably should have never existed to begin with.
Whatever settlement emerges, I think it is important in the short-term for the Ukrainian government to recognize that they live in a pluralistic society and to stop discriminating against Russian speakers (e.g. the various discriminatory language laws that Ukraine has enacted, or attempted to enact, following the 2014 overthrow of Yanukovych). The Ukrainian government also needs to give up on its efforts at joining NATO, which is simply a hostile act that Russia (or any other “sane” country) would never allow at their doorsteps. Similarly, the Ukrainian government should give up on its ambitions at recapturing Crimea and the other Russophilic regions of Ukraine, especially considering how the ethnic-Russian majority in Crimea do not even desire “liberation” to begin with. The idea of Ukraine recapturing Crimea, which Putin has described as one of his “red lines,” is simply madness, and something Ukraine and the West should try taking a bit more seriously. (It is also amazing how so many people in the West are unaware of the substantial support for Russia within Crimea, mostly because they’re only fed Ukrainian war propaganda. Here’s a rare video by NBC reporters in Crimea, for instance, which captures some of the residents’ Russophilic views. Crimea has in fact always been closer to Russia, and was originally transferred over to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954, so it is not simply a matter of interviewees merely feeling pressured to express favorable opinions towards Moscow, though that is certainly a factor in many surveys and interviews.)
While it might not be socialism, both the Ukrainian and Russian governments should listen to and respect whatever the people in the contested regions actually want. Following the overthrow of Yanukovych in 2014, for example, a Ukrainian—not a Russian—survey indicated that people in the Donbas were in favor of different forms of greater independence or regional autonomy, though were mostly against being outright absorbed by Russia.[1] Ukraine and Russia should hold similar surveys or referendums today, and, if the bourgeois leaderships of these countries actually care about democracy, attempt to fulfill those results.
1. To be precise, 25.7% wanted to maintain the current status in a unitary Ukraine with extended authority, 23.5% wanted autonomy within a federal Ukraine, 8.4% wanted separation from Ukraine and the formation of an independent state, and 22.5% wanted separation from Ukraine and to join another state (i.e. Russia). See the table for the other percentages. See also Richard Sakwa’s scholarly book Frontline Ukraine, pp. 153-154.
I have had that happen to me when my reply has been the first post of a new page of posts. I would just repost it again .
The bookie on our high street is offering ten thousand to one against the world ending in the next six months. Word has it that it is doing brisk trade. Such is the gullibility of people. Can’t they see that if the world does end the bookie wont be there to pay out, and even worse, they wont be there to collect?
Mind you, ten thousand to one isn’t a bad bet so I’ve put a fiver on just in case.This from the Financial Times is relevant under the headline;
“Donald Trump will demand Russia-Ukraine peace talks, claims Viktor Orbán
Hungarian prime minister says Republican candidate will rapidly push to end the war if he wins US election.”https://www.ft.com/content/44493fa9-d8f2-4407-94ac-a072c1976ca2
Trump and Zelensky speak to each other on the phone. Trump apparently urges a negotiated settlement:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/donald-trump-zelensky-phone-call-2024/index.html
Couldn’t a US Trumpite indifference toward NATO result in a free-for-all on both sides: both Russia and the gung-ho Baltics?
No. No state has an interest in a wider war in Europe. Not the European NATO members states. Not Russia. Certainly not the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Estonia.
In any event Trump is not that indifferent to NATO. He just wants the European members to pay more so that the US can pay less.
You are letting your imagination run away with you.
These documents, published last month, show that it was always US policy to expand NATO membership eastwards to Russia’s borders despite Russia’s misgivings (but having lost the Cold War were in no position to stop it).
The documents also show that the US government were advised that it would be easier to manipulate and bamboozle Putin than Yeltsin. How wrong this proved to be when they decided to try to incorporate Ukraine into NATO.
Interesting article. It looks increasingly like the Kursk adventure backfired and that the Ukrainian regime is going to pay a heavy price for it. The Russian military has already recaptured a part of Kursk taken by the Ukrainian military and has destroyed a large part of the latter´s equipment and personnel there. If the plan was to get the Russian military to divert resources from Eastern Ukraine where it has been steadily advancing, this has not worked.
Realistically, there is no chance of the Zelensky regime achieving its goals of evicting the Russian regime in the East and Crimea. But whoever wins this war, and it’s looking increasingly like Russia will, the workers on both sides will have lost in the pathetically stupid cause of nationalism. Let’s hope this tragedy comes to an end sooner rather than later and the pointless bloodshed stops….
Putin to announce war with NATO.
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