Russian Tensions
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If the Russian ruling class decides to go into a conventional war it is going to have multiple war fronts from different locations which would destroy its economy completely and probably it would be in worst conditions than the collapse of the Soviet Union
This is a good point made by the ICC:
2. Russia is trapped and on the defensiveOver the past decade, we have highlighted Russia’s role as a “troublemaker” in the world – despite being an economic dwarf – thanks to the strength of its armed forces and military hardware, a legacy of the period when it was at the head of an entire imperialist bloc. This does not mean, however, that globally it is now on the offensive. On the contrary, it finds itself in a general situation where it is under increasing pressure along all its borders:
It can’t risk a war with any neighbours, except Ukraine and Georgia, because with any of the NATO countries it could only be nuclear.
Putin says he will sign the recognition of Donbass, and EU has replied that sanctions are thus triggered.
Putin speaking now. I think he will order an invasion.
Donbass recognised.
I think the US/Russian meetings now won’t take place.
Once more we have the hypocrisy of diplomacy as some leaders bleat on about national sovereignty.
We have witnessed before the dismemberment of nation-states.
Have they forgotten how Yugoslavia was splintered and breakaway states swiftly recognised with NATO military interventions?
But the occupations of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics by Russian troops are not an invasion of Ukraine proper but also under the pretext of ‘peacekeeping’.
In this game of poker bluffing, will the USA fold or call or up the ante and raise the stakes further?
Putin still holds an ace – full annexation of those republics as happened with Crimea.
Or he could go all-in with a very costly bloody invasion, that seems unlikely and unnecessary.
He will now see the extent of the sanctions that the US-UK-EU are willing to use against Russia.
Further to Janet Surman’s link to Craig Murray’s article on the OSCE,
Seems to me like the most likely outcome, the effective annexation of the Eastern region of Ukraine and keeping them as a buffer state against EU and Nato. I think the regime change attempt in Belarus was maybe the final straw of the West power play. Next stage in the great game would be Putin putting pressure on other areas of conflict. Perhaps Georgia, Bosnia and or Syria.
I think the survival of the Assad regime has emboldened the Russian Capitalist class, however any talk of being a new cold war ignores the fact that in the original cold war the USSR had client states all over Africa, Central America, Asia, etc.
Finance will win out, Russia is a busted flush with the advent of non fossil fuel economy. The Russian state (effectively the fossil fuel oligarchies) are making a play whilst their stock is high, give it a five years and the falling impact of mineral wealth will reduce the military might of Russia. At the end of the day military spending is reliant on tax, which is a levy on capital. The Capitalist class in Russia will squeal about having to have a high tax economy when there is high levels of military and state security spending.
I don’t expect that it will lead to a widespread European war. The Minsk protocols stated that the Eastern states had an effective veto on Ukraine joining Nato and or EU. The fact that Putin has renounced the veto may be an indicator that he knows that he has not got the power to stop the Ukraine joining the EU and then Nato.
Needless to say no drop of Working Class blood should be shed in supporting either side of this Capitalist conflict and no doubt there will be division between the Trots, Tankies and various neo Bolsheviks which way to jump.
Good job the clueless rank and file Trots, Tankies and neo Bolsheviks have got leaders to tell them which section of the capitalist clas to support otherwise they’d be wetting their pants not knowing how to think!
Does this mean now that it will be easier for Ukraine to join NATO?
Every sign so far in this misery is that Washington will raise the stakes.
UK mulling sending troops to Ukraine (RT).
Lithuania preparing for war.
Russia says no plan for Biden-Putin summit
Putin recognizes Donbas independence.
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