Russian Tensions
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated “The risk of a conflict is real.”
Stoletenberg at a separate event on Tuesday said that NATO has information backing up US claims made last week that Russia has operatives currently in Ukraine for the purpose of carrying out “false flag” operations as a pretext for invasion. He says it’s “absolutely possible” they’re planning “incidents, accidents, false flag operations.”
https://www.dw.com/en/german-nato-leaders-warn-real-risk-of-ukraine-russia-conflict/a-60463185
Biden thinks Putin will “move in” on Ukraine, but does not want “full-blown war”.
Asked at a news conference about the threat of a Russian invasion, he said: “My guess is he will move in, he has to do something.”
But he warned that the Russian leader would pay a “serious and dear price” for “testing” the West.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that Russia will accept nothing less but “watertight” U.S. guarantees precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine.
https://apnews.com/article/moscow-russia-europe-ukraine-belarus-6d9818ff922a2650de107734a7c3faf5
Is Ukraine a military minnow?
Yes. The Ukrainian armed forces wouldn’t stand a chance if Russia invaded. In fact in areas where the population speak Russian and adhere to the Russian Orthodox Church Russian troops might well be welcomed with flowers. Fortunately a Russian invasion is not going to happen. It’s just sabre-rattling and rhetoric to back up diplomatic negotiations.
Part of the difficulty with estimating military prowess is the way in which military power is measured in spending. I used to live next door to guy who worked for the MOD as part of precurement. What he used to say is that in the UK due to the system that is used in the UK and even more so in USA the process is filled with cronyism, bribery and mismanagement.
Because of this the the price paid and budget of these governments cannot be compared with the costs of other nations such as China and the Russia.
For example the estimated costs of Main battle tanks range from, ZTZ -99 Chinese $2.5m, T-90AM (Russia) – $4.25 million, The Abrams M1 (USA) – $8.5 million, The Challenger 2 (Great Britain) – $8.6 million and the French AMX-56 Leclerc comes in at about $12.6 million. (not that I am in the market to buy one, the insurance is too much)
I might be that if push comes to shove between Russia and Nato, numbers and simplicity may overcome over engineered and over technologically developed hardware, as the Germans found out in WW2, when the Tiger and Panther tanks were overwhelmed by high numbers of T34s and Shermans.
By its own rules, NATO cannot admit a new member state that has an unresolved internal armed conflict. The civil war in eastern Ukraine is stalemated and is likely to be prolonged indefinitely, as whatever aid the West gives the Ukrainian government Russia will continue providing enough aid to the Donetsk and Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ to stave off their defeat. So despite the talk it does not seem to me that there is any possibility of Ukraine joining NATO in the foreseeable future and the Russian leadership is overreacting.
Russia may be engaged in a broader effort to consolidate its sphere of influence in the inner part of the post-Soviet region, including Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as (part of?) Ukraine. In Kazakhstan China-oriented officials are now being purged and Russian advisors are at work in Minsk. But in Belarus and Kazakhstan it is only a matter of consolidating existing influence. Ukraine is already ‘lost’ to Russia. I cannot see what sense a full or even partial invasion of Ukraine would make.
I don’t think Russia has the ball to invade Ukraine or other parts of Eastern Europe or the old Soviet republics, there are too many nationalist guerrillas and militias in that region, or they can finance and provide weapons to militias opposed to those governments. They are not going to make Ukraine a member of NATO but they are providing guns and loans to them and they are making noise about a Russian invasion to justify the purchase of modern weapons. China is the main concern of the USA they know that Russia is not in the same military stand as the Soviet Union
Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement that he predicts that Russian forces would move into Ukraine within the next month, citing U.S. intelligence indicating President Vladimir Putin is eyeing a “very aggressive timetable,”
Just have to wait and see, won’t we
The UK has accused President Putin of plotting to install a pro-Moscow figure to lead Ukraine’s government.
The Foreign Office took the unusual step of naming former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as a potential Kremlin candidate.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “The information being released today shines a light on the extent of Russian activity designed to subvert Ukraine, and is an insight into Kremlin thinking.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60095459
Or is it true?
“The British Foreign Office seems confused,” said former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev, laughing. “It isn’t very logical. I’m banned from Russia. Not only that but money from my father’s firm there has been confiscated.”
Ronald Reagan gave a public speech and he said that the Sandinistas guerrillas were invading the USA thru Texas, by the meantime, their own guerrillas known as the Nicaraguan Contra were killing peasants in Nicaragua, The USA also said that there were Iraquies troops ready to invade Saudi Arabia. The USA and England have an encyclopedia of lies and deceptions to justify wars
Ukraine is already ‘lost’ to Russia. I cannot see what sense a full or even partial invasion of Ukraine would make.
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This statement written by Stefan covers everything. Russia is not going to invade Ukraine, they are just making noises, nothing elsehttps://en.internationalism.org/content/17121/russia-ukraine-crisis-war-capitalisms-way-life
Russia Ukraine crisis war capitalism way of life
As always the media is accepting the press releases of anonymous government officials as genuine military intelligence reports.
Where are the on-the-ground war correspondents that we once possessed such as Robert Fisk?
But personally, I think we can take it as accurate that there is a build-up of forces on BOTH sides.
Sabre rattling? Who will blink first?
Once again workers are left powerless as political leaders face one another down in a stand-off.
During the Iraq war, they said that the Journalists were embedded in reality they were in bed with the military forces, In our time’s journalists are just cardboard readers. The powers in this conflict are just waiting to see who is the first one to shoot the first shot
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