Russian Tensions
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I notice from those world bank stats that Ukraine at number 118 was behind Russia in 2019 ie before covid. Bangladesh was 108 and Haiti 163.
To tell the truth, I am dubious about that claim by the Economist. Do they give a source? Why do they say “young men” rather than “males”? Are there stats by age? If so, where? And March 2023 seems rather early to have stats on the year 2022 ie to take into account the war.
Anyone know?
I notice from those world bank stats that Ukraine at number 118 was behind Russia in 2019 ie before covid. Bangladesh was 108 and Haiti 163.
To tell the truth, I am dubious about that claim by the Economist. Do they give a source? Why do they say “young men” rather than “males”? Are there stats by age? If so, where? And March 2023 seems rather early to have stats on the year 2022 ie to take into account the war.
Anyone know?
All this began before the war and reflects Russia’s appalling covid pandemic. The official death toll from the disease was 388,091, which would be relatively low; but The Economist estimates total excess deaths in 2020-23 at between 1.2m and 1.6m. That would be comparable to the number in China and the United States, which have much larger populations. Russia may have had the largest covid death toll in the world after India and the highest mortality rate of all, with 850-1,100 deaths per 100,000 people.
If you add pandemic mortality to the casualties of war and the flight from mobilisation, Russia lost between 1.9m and 2.8m people in 2020-23 on top of its normal demographic deterioration. That would be even worse than during the disastrous early 2000s when the population was falling by roughly half a million a year.
So, some of it is their own calculation.
The decline is associated with increased misery: the life expectancy at birth of Russian males plummeted from 68.8 in 2019 to 64.2 in 2021, partly because of covid, partly from alcohol-related disease. Russian men now die six years earlier than men in Bangladesh and 18 years earlier than men in Japan.
No source given, UN population data, again?
I think, in the core argument, Russia has experienced declining life expectancy, the article is correct, but the claim about Haiti, seem unsourced.
I already indicated my suspicions about the comparison The heavy consumption of vodka was normally previously given as the cause of earlier deaths of Russians. On this occasion the fall is attributed to not just Covid but to the war fatalities and reduction of men of fighting age generally because of dodging military call up.
It seems it is WHO and UN procedure to calculate life expectancy at 15 years. I suppose this is to counteract infant and child mortality rates.
https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_49-1030-life-expectancy-at-age-15-years/
https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy-how-is-it-calculated-and-how-should-it-be-interpreted
Yet another criteria is the ‘Average healthy life expectancy’ defined as ‘the average number of years that an individual is expected to live in a state of self-assessed good or very good health’.
For Glasgow men, it is 54 and that was at Jan 2021, a drop also because of Covid. I wouldn’t say it was due to drinking Buckfast, Scotland’s other national drink for the poor.
https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/average-healthy-life-expectancy-glasgow-19693673
Normally a fairly pro-Russian source: with a very detailed account of the mess up at Vuhledar – I’d suggest this apparent honesty is in fact sophisticated propaganda, but it may be giving a semi-accurate account of the role of lack of proper co-ordination by Russian command, and the effect of NATO resources being given to Ukraine. It may also be pro-Wagnerite noise.
I think the main take away is that there was a failed assault by Russian forces at Vulhedar, and there were significant losses that the twitterbots couldn’t hide.
(BTW, I note, 7 days on from true Scotsman proclaiming the fall of Bakhmut, Ukraine is still holding it).
“(BTW, I note, 7 days on from true Scotsman proclaiming the fall of Bakhmut, Ukraine is still holding it).”
It’s completely encircled. Mariuopol 2.0. How long you think the Nazis are gonna hold out?
“I’d suggest this apparent honesty is in fact sophisticated propaganda, but it may be giving a semi-accurate account of the role of lack of proper co-ordination by Russian command, and the effect of NATO resources being given to Ukraine. It may also be pro-Wagnerite noise.”
What is this, upside down world? It’s telling lies that makes one a propagandist not the truth. My god you people are dim.
We should see the Russians taking advantage of the encirclement of Bahkmut and by-passing it to capture the more strategic cities, towns and highways that were the reason offered by TS for such a relentless and sustained assault on Bahkmut.
Having sacrificed the convict battalions of Wagner and leaving them to mop up the depleted defeated surrounded Ukrainians in Bahkmut, I await the Big Push by the Russian regular army to gain ground.
Unless substantial progress is made, then indeed it is a Pyrrhic victory. As YMS indicated by mentioning Vuhlbar, Russian successes on other parts of the eastern front have not been resounding successes.
It seems an early Spring has brought the mud to bog down any armour advance which can only benefit the defenders. The drawn-out defence of Bahkmut has allowed defence lines to be strengthened and new ones to be built.
TS may have forgotten but I recall he predicted a Winter offensive when the ground was frozen. Now it will be Summer before the ground hardens again and by then the West-supplied armour will have been deployed to the battlefront and will prove an obstacle for the Russian tank thrust. Ukraine’s shell shortage may also be resolved by Summer.
But once again we should not assume we are the Chairbourne Generals but if it took almost a year to take Bahkmut, I’m guessing any swift capture of crucial cities is unlikely to develop.
TS refers to Mariupol. Not to the loss of Kherson or Kharkiv. And never has he mentioned the total failure to take Odessa.
“We should see the Russians taking advantage of the encirclement of Bahkmut and by-passing it to capture the more strategic cities,”
No shit Sherlock. Just as I’ve been saying. But it’s a stalemate you jokers cheered in unison. LOL.
“towns and highways that were the reason offered by TS for such a relentless and sustained assault on Bahkmut.”
Yes. Bakhmut is the linchpin of the Ukrainian position in Donbass. With it’s collapse the dominos will all fall.
“Having sacrificed the convict battalions of Wagner”
All-in is vomiting up MSM propaganda (yet again!). Wagner has no “convict battalions” a crudely pathetic attempt to associate Russia with the “evil Stalinist USSR”.
“and leaving them to mop up the depleted defeated surrounded Ukrainians in Bahkmut,”
No, the newly mobilised reserves will be doing that.
“I await the Big Push by the Russian regular army to gain ground.”
Hold on, I’m confused. This whole time you’ve been saying it’s a WWI redux stalemate, have you not? How is such a “big push” possible if things are as you say?
“Unless substantial progress is made, then indeed it is a Pyrrhic victory.”
Lol, verbatim western propaganda copium. The victory is in no way Pyrrhic. Russian losses are minimal. It’s fighting capacity is in no way reduced. This word “Pyrrhic”, it does not mean what you think it means. LOL
“As YMS indicated by mentioning Vuhlbar, Russian successes on other parts of the eastern front have not been resounding successes.”
If you measure success, as the Russian military does, as demilitarising Ukraine, then it is a spectacular success.
“It seems an early Spring has brought the mud to bog down any armour advance which can only benefit the defenders. The drawn-out defence of Bahkmut has allowed defence lines to be strengthened and new ones to be built.”
The last defence lines took eight years to build. The new ones? A few months? LOL
“TS may have forgotten but I recall he predicted a Winter offensive when the ground was frozen.”
Yes, and if you believe Scott Ritter it began weeks ago, just not the Hollywood “big arrow” type. Those are needlessly costly in attacker’s lives so they’re slowly and methodically mincing the enemy with concentrated artillery fire and meanwhile throwing the Ukrainians off balance across the entire line of contact to prevent them from amassing forces for a counter offensive. As you are consistently wrong about everything you say regarding this war, I don’t know why you even bother to speculate. Or why anyone listens to you.
“Now it will be Summer before the ground hardens again and by then the West-supplied armour will have been deployed to the battlefront and will prove an obstacle for the Russian tank thrust. Ukraine’s shell shortage may also be resolved by Summer.”
Copium. Pure, unadulterated copium. Hahahahaahahahahahaha!
“But once again we should not assume we are the Chairbourne Generals but if it took almost a year to take Bahkmut, I’m guessing any swift capture of crucial cities is unlikely to develop.”
Because you’ve forgotten about Russia’s mobilised reservists. The Russians were outnumbered back then and they were still winning decisively. Now they outnumber the Ukrainians. The math doesn’t lie. Ukraine is toast.
“TS refers to Mariupol. Not to the loss of Kherson or Kharkiv.”
They were strategic withdrawals with almost no loss of Russian life or equipment. Moreover, the Ukrainian forces were decimated in the process.
“And never has he mentioned the total failure to take Odessa.”
LOL. Maybe because there hasn’t been any attempt to take Odessa? How can you fail at something you haven’t attempted? Are you sniffing petrol All-in. Whatever is going on upstairs ain’t right.
“It’s completely encircled. Mariuopol 2.0. How long you think the Nazis are gonna hold out?”
Once again we see this assertion made by our resident Putin bootlicker. In what sense are the Ukrainian side all “Nazis” and the Russian side not at all? There are self-identifying Nazis on both sides but does that mean that every Ukrainian soldier holed up in Bahkmut is a “Nazi”? If so, where is the evidence? One could just as easily assert that Russian imperialism is driven by a Nazi-type ideology in all but name which is precisely what many pro-Ukrainian supporters are saying. They argue that Russia is actually a fascist state which on the face of it suggests that they themselves disassociate themselves from Nazi ideology.
I suspect the vast majority of soldiers on both sides are not Nazis – just deluded nationalists like TS himself
As I stated, I await the Russian follow-up advance and ensuing victories if the war is going according to your own predictions.
If the expected offensive began weeks ago then Scott Ritter has re-defined an offensive to make the word meaningless.
I haven’t changed my view that the war has not progressed for either side. That is amply demonstrated by the battle for Bahkmut.
Odessa was indeed an objective but was an example of Russia’s bungled invasion. It was to be a planned amphibious landing. The sinking of the Moskva, finally put an end to that plan.
Strategic truth telling is a key part of propaganda: controlling the narrative is equally important, so, for instance, silence after the disaster at Vuhledar was an admission of taking a heavy hit. The presenter at History Legends spends a lot of time admitting the battle was lost – blaming incompetence – but does try to blunt the picture of losses: it’s a truth shit sandwich to try and protect the bigger picture and rally the virtual troops.
As I understand the situation in Bakhmut there is still one relief road, and combat going on to prevent it being closed, and it seems Ukraine is putting in reserves. I think that, despite recent advances, Russia can’t close the circle is significant. I’d rate the chances of Ukraine losing all their forces there as low.
“Strategic truth telling is a key part of propaganda”
He’s a fucking YouTuber you dolt. He’s calling it as he sees it. And much more accurately than most of the knuckleheads on this thread.
“The presenter at History Legends spends a lot of time admitting the battle was lost – blaming incompetence – but does try to blunt the picture of losses: it’s a truth shit sandwich to try and protect the bigger picture and rally the virtual troops.”
How does he try to “blunt the picture of losses”?
“As I understand the situation in Bakhmut there is still one relief road”
All roads are under Russian fire control. No vehicles or large concentrations can get in or out except under withering fire.
“and combat going on to prevent it being closed, and it seems Ukraine is putting in reserves.”
Which will be soundly turned in to fertilizer as Russia has a 10:1 artillery shell advantage.
“I think that, despite recent advances, Russia can’t close the circle is significant. I’d rate the chances of Ukraine losing all their forces there as low.”
I wish I could bet money with you clowns. I’d make a fortune.
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