Russian Tensions
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That’s not the point I’m making. Bojo’s Brains listed off a number of WW2 battles concluding death rates were very low. Well, clearly there are cases where the opposite is true.
“Do you question my figure of 500,000 Ukrainian troops over the course of the conflict? Are you are saying the number is higher?”
“The defence minister added: “We have approximately 700,000 in the armed forces and when you add the national guard, police, border guard, we are around a million-strong.”Jul 11, 2022”
Yes, Stalingrad had horrendous casualty rates (and the defenders lost more men than the attacker. As, it seems Paulus told Hitler: “18,000 wounded without the slightest aid of bandages and medicines.” the loss of supply would be critical to high fatalities. Both sides had over a million men in that theatre alone (and, of course, the Axis had men from several countries).
And, importantly, the Germans ended up being encircled, which will have led to a great many more deaths than otherwise (this perhaps explains why Bakhmut has taken longer to fall than Stalingrad, the lessons have been learned).
Perhaps Stalingrad is a poor example, and Bakhmut is about to join Ypres as a long lasting bulge in the line.
“Perhaps Stalingrad is a poor example, and Bakhmut is about to join Ypres as a long lasting bulge in the line.”
This comment won’t age well.
TW – “The defence minister added: “We have approximately 700,000 in the armed forces and when you add the national guard, police, border guard, we are around a million-strong.”Jul 11, 2022”
Even if you go with the figure of 700,000 (the national guard, the police, border guards are not currently enlisted), your figure of 200,000 deaths is wildly improbable.”
As I have said the tooth the tail ratio of front line troops to logistical tail has a minimum of 1:3 (probably higher) that gives a front line strength of 175,000 front line troops. Add to that a death to serious injury ratio of even 1:2.5 (which is highly unlikely) your 200,000 figure (which you actually said was proabably much higher) would entail another 500,000 seriously wounded. That leaves 700,000 dead or wounded. So given that figure, who the hell are the Russians still Fighting?
That said, it is interesting that suddenly (when it suits you) you are starting to rely on data provided by the Ukrainian side, having trashed their intel and Western Statistics and media throughout this debate. You frequently state that the Ukrainians have been exaggerating their firepower, yet all of a sudden they are accurate?
Has it occurred to you that the Ukrainian Defence Minister might have a vested interest in inflating the figures he announces when he is interviewed in the Times, when the Ukrainian government are busy trying to persuade Western powers to continue to supply them with arms?
Other research through other sources show a different perspective:
Statista.com, whose reputation is reasonable, not great but reasonable, state the following figures:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/
“That said, it is interesting that suddenly (when it suits you) you are starting to rely on data provided by the Ukrainian side”
So predictable. I was anticipating this very retort. We all know no men, even teenage boys, are allowed to leave Ukraine and that there are countless videos of Ukrainian civilians being dragged off the streets and press-ganged to the front. The Kiev Nazis also have their own version of the volksturm. The figures of men pressed in to military service is one number we can trust.
BD -“That said, it is interesting that suddenly (when it suits you) you are starting to rely on data provided by the Ukrainian side”
TW “So predictable. I was anticipating this very retort. We all know no men, even teenage boys, are allowed to leave Ukraine and that there are countless videos of Ukrainian civilians being dragged off the streets and press-ganged to the front. The Kiev Nazis also have their own version of the volksturm. The figures of men pressed in to military service is one number we can trust.”
Is that the sounds of straws being clutched at???
This comment won’t age well.
In many ways, I hope it won’t: Ypres’ bulge lasted 3 years or more: I kind of expected Bakhmut to fall weeks ago, but I occasionally here non-Ukraine sources saying Russian’s have been pushed back here and there, and their forces continue to resist encirclement. The battle has already lasted longer than Stalingrad.
Anarchists for Ukraine
https://www.anarkismo.net/article/32731
“…Will a victory by Ukraine, with its current state and imperialist alliances, open up the possibility of more freedom and democracy—leading to a greater possibility of an anarchist-socialist revolution? This cannot be said for sure. I do not have a crystal ball. But the defeat of the Ukrainian people by the authoritarian Russian empire of Putin will probably make our goals even harder to reach. In either case, it is the right thing to do to stand on the side of greater freedom…”
Has some interesting thoughts on casualty rates:
The war started in eighths week of 2022. There were thus 44 weeks in the rest of the year. With 300 dead per week the number of Russians killed until the end of 2022 was 13,200. (These numbers likely included the number of Wagner mercenaries killed but probably not those of the Donbas militia.)
The BBC then counts 2,400 killed in January and 1,700 in February.
They estimate, from Russian sources, about 160K Ukrainian casualties (they keep saying killed, but I don’t think this can be confirmed kills).
I think the BBC count will be low, due to the way it is compiled, and Russian MoD has every reason to exaggerate.
“Is that the sounds of straws being clutched at???”
Lol. So Kiev hasn’t stopped all males 18-60 from leaving the country?
It doesn’t have a volkssturm?
It isn’t dragging men off the street to fight?
The only one clutching at straws is you. I might add the figure of a million is over 6 months old. How many more men have the Kiev Nazis pressed in to service since?
“British Prime Minister Sunak said in Munich that London would be the first to supply Kiev with “long-range weapons.”
Turning to the European countries, Sunak urged not to consider the depletion of their arsenals as a problem, because, in his opinion, they were intended to fight the Russian Federation.”
Radioactive substances have been transported to Ukraine from an unnamed European country and Kyiv was preparing a large-scale “provocation”, Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement.
“The aim of the provocation is to accuse Russia’s army of allegedly carrying out indiscriminate strikes on hazardous radioactive facilities in Ukraine, leading to the leakage of radioactive substances and contamination of the area,” it said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/19/russia-again-accuses-ukraine-of-planning-false-flag-attack
According to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, an analysis by the institute in October that examined Russian-language discussions about refugees on Telegram in particular, the narratives differ depending on the target group.
Audiences in Russia are primarily told that people from Ukraine are fleeing from supposed “Nazis” who allegedly rule the country.
In the rest of Europe, on the other hand, they are led to believe that refugees are ungrateful, prone to violence and dangerous.
https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-how-propaganda-denigrates-ukrainian-refugees/a-64731408
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