Russian Tensions
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Transnistria – A reminder of how Russia creates secessionist republics and how Ukraine collaborated with it.
https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-war-in-ukraine-spell-the-end-of-transnistria/a-64363639
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria
Then there are Abkhazia, Artsakh and South Ossetia, breakaways
Who’s victory would that be?
“Yevgeny Prigozhin, has claimed repeatedly over the past few days that his forces are the only units on the ground in Soledar. He said on Tuesday night that his mercenaries had seized the town, only to be contradicted by Russia’s defence ministry the next morning.
Daily updates from the Russian defence ministry have made no mention whatsoever of Wagner, and Friday’s briefing was no exception. The military said that paratroopers had played a key part in the capture of the town.
Mr Prigozhin then released a statement saying he was “surprised” to read the defence ministry briefing. There “wasn’t a single paratrooper” in Soledar, he insisted, warning against “insulting [his] fighters” and “stealing others’ achievements”.
And on Friday evening, Mr Prigozhin accused “officials who want to stay in their places” of being the biggest threat to his group’s advance in Ukraine.
In a later statement, the defence ministry praised the mercenaries’ “courageous and selfless actions” during the fighting, but again emphasised the leading role of regular Russian forces.”
“Who’s victory would that be?”
One capitalist warlord as against the other. The workers on both sides would yet again be the losers. But TS couldn’t care a toss about the interests of the workers in this sordid capitalist war- He is too busy licking his master´s boot
“Who’s victory would that be?”
Russia’s. The “stalemate” that wasn’t. The Kiev regime’s Nazi hordes are being crushed. Good riddance.
Until Bahkmut falls (the Soledar battle a battle that never featured in any of your earlier pronouncements but now somehow grows in prominence) and the Kiev government capitulates or Russia withdraws to Feb 2022 the war is in an actual stalemate.
Yourself has predicted outright victory for Russia and the accomplishment of its primary purpose – ‘denazification’, demilitarisation, defeat of NATO expansionism and annexation of Donbas – None have been achieved other than partial control of the Donbas.
Will the expected imminent offensive by Russia succeed?
It may bring some territorial gains but all Russia can hope for is it could produce negotiations that result in a ceasefire such as we see in Korea and Kashmir, a stalemate. Certainly, permanent peace will not prevail.
“(the Soledar battle a battle that never featured in any of your earlier pronouncements but now somehow grows in prominence)”
I’ve spoken often and at length about the battle for Donbass. Soledar is just one more Russian victory in that battle. The noose now tightens around Bhakmut. Soon it will be completely surrounded and all nationalist elements forced to surrender or be destroyed.
“and the Kiev government capitulates or Russia withdraws to Feb 2022 the war is in an actual stalemate.”
Erm, no. A stalemate is when neither side is winning. Russia is winning decisively. It takes a long time to turn an army of 600k into fertilizer.
“Yourself has predicted outright victory for Russia and the accomplishment of its primary purpose – ‘denazification’, demilitarisation, defeat of NATO expansionism and annexation of Donbas – None have been achieved other than partial control of the Donbas.”
You keep doing this. Calling the match at the half time whistle while one team has half a dozen red cards.
“Will the expected imminent offensive by Russia succeed?”
Yes. The math doesn’t lie. NATOstan and its Ukraine puppets have lost the logistics war.
“It may bring some territorial gains”
Territorial gains are a secondary consideration. The primary goal is grinding the Ukrainian military to dust.
“but all Russia can hope for is it could produce negotiations that result in a ceasefire such as we see in Korea and Kashmir, a stalemate.”
Says who? You? Someone who depends for their coverage of the conflict on MSM propagandists? Lol
“Certainly, permanent peace will not prevail.”
“Certainly” eh? Remind me what happened when Nazi Germany was defeated. Did the armed conflict continue in some other form? No.
“Erm, no. A stalemate is when neither side is winning. Russia is winning decisively. It takes a long time to turn an army of 600k into fertilizer.”
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The same dehumanising fascistic metaphor from our resident Putin bootlicker. Are fellow workers foolishly fighting other workers for the sake of their respective capitalist warlords to be regarded as “fertiliser”? This is the language of people who supported the use of the gas chambers in world war two.
Apart from that Russia is not winning decisively (present tense). It might theoretically win decisively in the future in the “logistics war” or it might not. None of us possesses a crystal ball. But anyone who interprets recent military developments in this war as Russia “winning decisively” is either living in cloud cuckoo land or has a poor grasp of the English language. Talk of the “noose now (tightening) around Bhakmut” . The Russian military and their private enterprise affiliates have been struggling for months to capture this place at the cost of huge numbers of causalities. Nothing decisive about this at all . This is to say nothing of Russian retreats elsewhere in Ukraine.
This is a squalid capitalist war over rival capitalist interests that looks likely to drag for quite a while.
So, TS, you expect an unconditional surrender of Ukraine to happen and that the whole country will be occupied by the Russians and Ukraine once again being absorbed as part of the Russian nation.
This was indeed the initial war-plan with the drive to take Kiev and then to pressure the Western regions into compliance with a new “puppet” government, with a target date of August 2022. It failed. The Battle of Kiev was a defeat for Russia. Not the diversionary assault that you claim it to have been.
The initial advances on the Donbas front were repelled at Kharkiv and then Kherson retook and was unable to even besiege Odessa. Mariupol was the only significant Russian long-term success.
The position of those of us on the forum has been that outright victory was never going to be achieved and that a negotiated armistice would be agreed upon. That would mean de facto recognition of Crimea and the Donbas separatist republics being conceded to Russia.
That remains the best hope for some sort of end of hostilities. But not a permanent peace treaty. But the sooner there is a truce and fewer casualties inflicted on working people in an internecine conflict the better.
The stated war aims of Russia have failed. There has been no collapse of Ukraine’s government, no submission to a superior force. Hence the need for another phase of the war, a new offensive. But the aim is merely to simply scramble to be in a better position to parley that will not be perceived as a humiliation for Putin.
True Narcissist- “You keep doing this. Calling the match at the half time whistle while one team has half a dozen red cards.”
Your phraseology betrays you. You clearly know as much about football as you know about Marxism.
I wonder which soccerball franchise you want to win the conference and then go into the soccerbowl final. Maybe the Manchester Red United Devils or maybe the Liverpooler City Cowboys 😂😂😂😂😂😂
“So, TS, you expect an unconditional surrender of Ukraine to happen”
Yes.
“and that the whole country will be occupied by the Russians”
Probably.
“and Ukraine once again being absorbed as part of the Russian nation.”
Some of it yes. But not all of it. The Western portion may be annexed by Poland or remain a rump state dependent on NATOstani largesse.
“This was indeed the initial war-plan with the drive to take Kiev and then to pressure the Western regions into compliance with a new “puppet” government”
No, Russia wanted a neutral government not a puppet. Minsk 2 allowed for this. NATOstan and the Kiev Nazis preferred war.
“with a target date of August 2022. It failed.”
Plan A failed. But not plan B. Demilitarisation
is the name of the game and in this Russia is succeeding spectacularly.“The Battle of Kiev was a defeat for Russia.”
Lol. There was no “battle” for Kiev therefore no defeat.
“Not the diversionary assault that you claim it to have been.”
It most certainly was. You don’t try and take a city of millions with 30 thousand troops. What you smoking?
“The initial advances on the Donbas front were repelled at Kharkiv and then Kherson retook and was unable to even besiege Odessa.”
You hold the mistaken belief that this is a war about territory. It is not. It is an attritional war. Destroying the enemey is its purpose not holding ground.
“Mariupol was the only significant Russian long-term success.”
Except for all the others (and the grinding down of Ukraine’s men and material.)
“The position of those of us on the forum has been that outright victory was never going to be achieved and that a negotiated armistice would be agreed upon.”
Well, I see no sign of that. Do you?
“That would mean de facto recognition of Crimea and the Donbas separatist republics being conceded to Russia.”
This is already mostly the reality.
“That remains the best hope for some sort of end of hostilities.”
NATOstan does not want an end to the hostilities. You understand that, right?
“But the sooner there is a truce and fewer casualties inflicted on working people in an internecine conflict the better.”
True, but only one side has ever been interested in negotiating. Russia.
“The stated war aims of Russia have failed.”
No, they are succeeding. Spectacularly so. The fact that this is being hidden from you by MSM spin and copium does not alter the reality of the situation.
“There has been no collapse of Ukraine’s government, no submission to a superior force.”
Not yet. It takes time to
Destroy Europe’s most powerful military.“Hence the need for another phase of the war, a new offensive. But the aim is merely to simply scramble to be in a better position to parley that will not be perceived as a humiliation for Putin.”
Lol. Winners don’t be humiliated. Losers be.
individual Anarchist actions in Russia The most interesting reports here are the rail sabotage and the possibility of fraternisation on the “zugzwang” of the front.
Interesting on the state of both armies’ morale. This war probably will be settled by a mutiny.
The Pro and Anti-NATO left
Realists see Ukraine only as a proxy war, liberals only as a war of liberation.
One side wants to trade territory for peace with a ruthless and untrustworthy dictator, while the other is willing to sacrifice Ukrainian civilians, soldiers and infrastructure to ensure Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-the-anti-nato-left-after-ukraine-197649
For the record, here is the viewpoint of the exiled (on release from gaol in a prisoner swap) leader of the main opposition party in Ukraine (now banned) He says they’re a lot of people in Ukraine who want a peaceful settlement. That could be true but they will have to keep their heads down as calling for a settlement with Russia is a crime.
Anyway, here it is:
A rare article on those Ukrainians who are pro-Russian but the article remains still sympathetic to Ukraine. No mention of the consequences to those deemed collaborators.
https://www.alternet.org/traitors-ukraine-vladimir-putin-invaders/
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