Russian Tensions
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BD – “if a conventional war broke out between NATO and Russia (which won’t happen for lots of reasons, but mainly because it would escalate to a nuclear conflict very quickly.”
Are you saying both sides will forever back down from it through fear of nuclear war?
But what if Putin continues to be denied a way out and NATO keeps backing him into a corner?Would he not opt for nuclear war, thinking he and his family have a bunker, if the alternative is to lose the presidency and be arrested?
How can Putin even resign or face an election again, unless his own party wins, without fear of arrest? He can only resign if replaced by another of his own party, or at least an anti-NATOist.
“That was indeed the lesson I was trying to give you by my recent links to various videos.”
The difference, All-in with The Guardian’s imperialist narratives, is that I suffered watching a little of what you linked to. As a rule, I’ll watch a link til I hear something I know to be false or spin that is divorced from reality. I got about 20 seconds into the video. Lol. You, on the other hand, appear to have dismissed mine out of hand. Water, horse, dead horse.
“You expressed your own problem very well, better than I could.”
Except it’s not my problem, it’s yours. Why do you think I call you a Guardian Bro?
“When one defers to the authority of others as we all have to do on this forum when it comes to understanding the military strategy and tactics of the war, the importance of qualification becomes paramount.”
No, the importance of truth is all that matters.
“As a general rule, it is the preponderance of evidence we should heed and not go by the claims of the occasional aberrant out-lier.”
Lol, you confuse the preponderance of noise with the preponderance of evidence. In wartime it’s the noise that’s overwhelming, particularly from the “home team”. You, it is obvious, are woefully unequipped to sort through the noise. Perhaps your ears don’t work as well as they used to? Although, to be fair, the problem isn’t with your ears, what’s between them is where the issue lies.
“As Carl Sagan advised, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.”
The claims aren’t extraordinary if one steps out of one’s MSM bubble. But again, you aren’t equipped, for whatever reason, to do so.
BD – “if a conventional war broke out between NATO and Russia (which won’t happen for lots of reasons, but mainly because it would escalate to a nuclear conflict very quickly.”
TM asked “Are you saying both sides will forever back down from it through fear of nuclear war?
But what if Putin continues to be denied a way out and NATO keeps backing him into a corner”No, what I was trying to say is that, to an extent, the conventional “war gaming” that the military undertake, is essentially futile. If NATO and the Russians/Chinese got into a full scale conventional conflict, which ever side reached a point where they were being threatened with defeat, they would press the button.
So all the end point assessments or the “war gaming” is always going to be limited. Any full scale “conventional war” would either end up with a fairly swift negotiated settlement or complete annihilation.
Do you think that Hitler, Churchill, Stalin, Tojo, Saddam or Roosevelt would have accepted complete defeat without going for the final option?
So much for TS’s claim that there is freedom of speech inside capitalist Russia. There is precious little to choose between this regime and the equally repugnant, repressive, and right-wing regime in Ukraine
“When one defers to the authority of others as we all have to do on this forum when it comes to understanding the military strategy and tactics of the war, the importance of qualification becomes paramount.” No, the importance of truth is all that matters. – TS
And how is truth determined? By weighing up the evidence presented and examining the validity of that evidence based on knowledge and experience. Truth should not be an a priori conclusion – as it is in your case.
Many times you have stated that NATO is running out of weapons to supply Ukraine. You don’t differentiate between what is and what can be supplied. Presently, it is the state of the art technology
NATO is always upgrading its front-line so what happens to the weapons replaced? Spiked? Sold? No, they are stored. The military is the greatest of hoarders.
I don’t think you quite understand just how much armaments are held in stock. It is breathtaking.
USA could if it wished supply tomorrow Ukraine with 3,000 Abrams tanks that are presently surplus to requirements and parked in supply depots. So far America choose not to for various reasons. But it only takes an order from the US president to send them to Ukraine.
155mm artillery has been the first choice to send to Ukraine but how many 105mm howitzers, once NATO standard, do you think are available? Thousands with shells in abundance.
We are not talking about obsolete inefficient weapons but battle-worthy equipment. All would be adequate for Ukraine’s needs. Certainly, as a buffer stop-gap until the factories turn out the more up-to-date weapons.
The arms industry are rubbing its hand in glee at the prospect of contracts to replenish NATO supplies
The recent Romanian NATO conference reflects that Russia’s hopes to divide and weaken NATO have failed.
This war is extracting a great toll on BOTH sides.
Putin gambled and lost. Russia now has to either win an overwhelming victory and be prepared to have a repressive military occupation of Ukraine or Putin has to settle for a compromise and make concessions and accept the existence of an almost permanent state of hostility for many years to come.
Western corporation will be rubbing their hands with glee in anticipation of the contracts to repair Ukraine’s infrastructure and the corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs getting their ill-gotten gains.
“Putin gambled and lost.”
And how will you be eating your words? With a little salt and pepper or a demi glace sauce?
BD – “Do you think that Hitler, Churchill, Stalin, Tojo, Saddam or Roosevelt would have accepted complete defeat without going for the final option?”
And Putin is already being pushed toward that. And NATO isn’t backing off.
Ursula von der Leyen lets the truth slip. 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead.
Ukrainian collapse around Bakhmut opening the way to total victory in Donbass. So much for all the BS about a WW1 type stalemate.
[ Bakhmut Front ] Ukraine lines collapse south of Bakhmut as Russia forces captured 4 vital towns
The Russians are demilitarising the West so successfully that there’s nothing left to start a war with China.
$18.7 Billion In Backlog, US Weapons Supply To Ukraine Is Leaving Taiwan Defenseless Against China?
“The US is prioritizing arms assistance to Ukraine over Taiwan”
So the US does not anticipate an imminent threat to Taiwan from China and isn’t planning to start a war with China anytime soon.
Lockheed Martin Corporation, Boeing Company, and other suppliers say they have struggled to keep up with orders due to pandemic-induced supply-chain issues. These issues were present even before the Ukraine invasion prompted an increase in weapons demand.
The article based upon the Wall St Journal talks of weapons originally destined to supply Taiwan being sent to Ukraine.
Taiwan ordered 208 Javelin anti-tank weapons and 215 surface-to-air Stinger missiles in December 2015. Instead, Ukraine was sent over 8,500 Javelins and over 1,600 Stingers. Plus some other hi-tech weaponry has also been re-directed to Ukraine as it is taking precedence over any potential threat to Taiwan.
Other sources reveal USA (if you had Googled) is increasing military aid to Taiwan
US$ 1.1 billion has been pledged from the United States to Taiwan. The aid package is the largest ever granted to the country and includes 60 Harpoon-type ship-firing missile systems and 100 AIM-9 Sidewinder short-range missiles, as well as financial support for a radar system.
“The package would allow the U.S. to send up to $1 billion worth of stockpiled munitions and up to $2 billion worth of weapons paid for by U.S. taxpayers annually over the next five years”
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/nov/14/congress-moving-forward-military-aid-package-taiwa/In September, it reached a $555m agreement with USA to buy four MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones, the maritime variant of the Reaper drone.
Although the Stingers would be useful as any conflict with China would primarily begin as a naval and air war, Javelin anti-tank rockets are scarcely an imperative.
America intends $840 billion in defense expenditures for 2023, raising Biden’s proposed military budget by $37 billion.
$276 billion in planned spending on weapons systems alone.
And you call that demilitarisation. What planet do you hail from?
In comparison, Russia’s total defence budget is less than $100 billion.
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-skyrocketing-defense-spending-2022-2023/
The economists statistics show that the USA government and Taiwan have approved in double quantity the sale of armaments to Taiwan and some of them are more advanced and more modern than the ones sent to Ukraine, even more, Republican and Democrats are willing to approve more weapons for Taiwan, I do not think that 1.1 Billions dollars in armaments is a decrease in weapons sales, and they are not providing bow and arrow.
What is the difference between one or two news centers who supported the capitalist class of Asia and another news center who support the capitalist class of Europe ? The same shit with different smell,
We do not support any capitalist class being European, Asian, African, Australian, or from the Americas ( North, South, Central or Caribbean islands) In essence they are the same, only left wings and wacko takes side with any gangs of the capitalist class because they do not support the world working class, the support government and leaders, and both represent the capitalist class of every country
“So the US does not anticipate an imminent threat to Taiwan from China and isn’t planning to start a war with China anytime soon.”
Oh, All-in, how is it you never miss an opportunity to misinterpret the world around you? I think it’s your “super power”. They should call you Wrong Man! 1: China cannot be a threat to Taiwan as Taiwan is China. 2: The US is planning an imminent war with China only, the realization is dawning on some now, that DC has bitten off a lot more than it can chew.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html
“Lockheed Martin Corporation, Boeing Company, and other suppliers say they have struggled to keep up with orders due to pandemic-induced supply-chain issues. These issues were present even before the Ukraine invasion prompted an increase in weapons demand.”
Translation, we’re more concerned with skiing trips to Aspen, buying third homes and second yachts than we are with actually making anything that goes “bang”!
And don’t mention the “missing” $21 trillion.
“The article based upon the Wall St Journal talks of weapons originally destined to supply Taiwan being sent to Ukraine.”
Yes.
“Taiwan ordered 208 Javelin anti-tank weapons and 215 surface-to-air Stinger missiles in December 2015. Instead, Ukraine was sent over 8,500 Javelins and over 1,600 Stingers. Plus some other hi-tech weaponry has also been re-directed to Ukraine as it is taking precedence over any potential threat to Taiwan.”
Where all of it, along with its operators, is being turned into a red hot mess, no pun intended.
“Other sources reveal USA (if you had Googled) is increasing military aid to Taiwan
US$ 1.1 billion has been pledged from the United States to Taiwan. The aid package is the largest ever granted to the country and includes 60 Harpoon-type ship-firing missile systems and 100 AIM-9 Sidewinder short-range missiles, as well as financial support for a radar system.
“The package would allow the U.S. to send up to $1 billion worth of stockpiled munitions and up to $2 billion worth of weapons paid for by U.S. taxpayers annually over the next five years””
I’m well aware of the US’ policy of arming Taiwan.
“America intends $840 billion in defense expenditures for 2023, raising Biden’s proposed military budget by $37 billion.
$276 billion in planned spending on weapons systems alone.”
Sounds a lot, but when you’re charging $10,000 for a toilet seat, you ain’t getting much bang for your buck. No pun intended.
“And you call that demilitarisation. What planet do you hail from?”
One where the US is incapable of supplying its proxy armies with enough weapons. The math don’t lie.
“In comparison, Russia’s total defence budget is less than $100 billion.”
They’ve been preparing for this conflict for a decade and they don’t spend $10K on toilet seats. They have missile and anti missile systems generations ahead of the US’. The US is mighty on paper or when fighting 3rd world guerilla armies but against a peer rival, not so much.
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