Russian Tensions
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There were other alliances CENTO and SEATO, both dissolved.
But as we see with the present rivalries in the Indo-Pacific, it is relatively easy to revive such military pacts.
If NATO had not existed, I’m fairly confident that the UK and US would be instrumental in building up another military alliance of Eastern European countries, designed to counter and discourage Russian expansionism.
The French (De Gaulle) have usually been ‘maverick’ member of NATO
A very telling request.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has asked to see evidence to support claims that Russia intends to invade Ukraine within days.
“If you, or anyone else, has additional information regarding a 100% Russian invasion starting on the 16th, please forward that information to us.”
😀 Ha, ha.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-may-withdraw-from-nato-in-second-term-diplomats-worry-2020-9
Donald Trump may withdraw the USA from NATO if he is reelected. During his presidency, he said that NATO should not exist
130,000 Russian troops, versus about 215,000 active personnel in teh Ukrainian army, 6,500 tanks, about 7,000 combat armored vehicles, 1,500 combat aircraft, and more than 350 ships.(Wikipedia) – I can’t see that being enough, even a lightning strike on Kyiv would leave the army intact, so long as it can supply itself, they’d have to watch for the counter-punch. The US at its greatest extent had 100K troops in Afghanistan, but the Afghans didn’t have armour or planes.
The old cliches, such as “appeasement”, drawn from WW2 mythology, are what, unfortunately, most workers in the UK are imbued with. We’ve been fed on it ever since 1945, in movies, crass TV “histories”, and school repetition.
The same old bloody rubbish is interminably doled out and consumed by the majority.Another day. Another non-invasion.
Meanwhile the Ukraine may be prepared to consider dropping joining NATO:
“Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has said the country could consider dropping its ambition to join Nato to avoid war with Russia. Vadym Prystaiko told BBC Radio 5 that the country would, due to threats and blackmail, consider “serious concessions” including removing the goal of joining the Nato alliance from the Ukrainian constitution.”
They said it’s scheduled for Wednesday.
As Harry Champion used to say,
“Good evening, Ladies and Gentlemen. Nice weather for the war. Lovely.”It gets all messy and utterly confusing
Ukraine’s UK ambassador clarifies his remark…
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-ambassador-uk-clarifies-nato-090207998.html
I am sure neither side seeks outright war
But I have no confidence that reason will prevail with diplomatic brinkmanship or that there will not be an accidental incident.
I’m pretty sure that the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines MH17 was not a deliberate act but it happened.
IF war between Ukraine and Russia breaks out, I have no confidence that it could be contained and would not escalate.
But I do not expect it to become a nuclear exchange. The doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction remains dominant.
But a widespread regional war is a possibility and NATO does not honour its treaty obligations to come to the assistance of its members involved. YMS offers an analysis that even if it does not spill over, a protracted war is a possibility. The occupation of Kiev may not signal the surrender of Ukraine. On the other hand, it might. I have no special insight.
I’m reminded of that childhood ditty, the Grand Old Duke of York when it comes to the propaganda…
Oh, the grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men;
He marched them up to the top of the hill,
And he marched them down again.When they were up, they were up,
And when they were down, they were down,
And when they were only halfway up,
They were neither up nor down.I don’t believe this “accidental” idea.
They like to portray war as though it were a natural disaster.
But, as Kropotkin points out, war is organised, deliberate, perpetrated.I know the Ukrainian ambassador has rowed back a bit on what he said, but I just heard on the 11 o’clock bbc4 radio news summary a junior minister at the war office called Heappy saying that if Ukraine wished to exercise its sovereign right not to join NATO the government would respect that; all they were concerned with was that Ukraine should have the right to decide its alliances.
Is there something going on here we are not being told about? And if there is, why didn’t they say this as the start?
At least this Heappy character seems more clued up than the Foreign Secretary who showed she an ignorance of the geography of Russia and his boss, Ben Wally, the Minister of War, whose contribution to de-escalating the situation was to compare Putin to Hitler.
The “catastrophic accident” view I of course don’t know might be valid or not.
But I believe that a nuclear missile cannot be fired without an express order from either president.
Bringing us back to obedience as the cardinal virtue of military personnel, they never act without receiving an order. That goes for top generals as much as for the lower ranks. Is that not correct?In this respect, look at 1918.
The armies had to keep on killing right up to the agreed time of 11.00 on the 11th day of the 11th month.
Anyone refusing was shot for disobedience. But also, anyone shooting after the clocks had sounded 11.00 was hanged for murder.
Obedience is the name of the game, and war is never an accident.A message from the leader of the “party of NATO”:
“Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said parliament should be recalled if Russia invades Ukraine, as he called for tougher sanctions against Moscow.
On a visit to Sunderland, he said: “I think it’s very important that parliament is recalled if there is an invasion … we must have a swift and strong response, a united response, from the United Kingdom and a united response with our allies.”
He added: “I would like to see tougher sanctions. I’d like that threat to be very real because let’s see this for what it is. It’s Russian aggression. So I would say to the government go further on sanctions.”
Why are Germany and France intimidated by the U.S?
What could Biden actually do if they openly said no, we are not going to obey you in this?What hold does the U.S. have over them?
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