Russian Tensions
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Good News
China and India have called for negotiations.
Putin signed a decree toughening penalties for voluntary surrender to enemy forces, desertion and refusal to fight by up to 10 years in prison
Army General Dmitry Bulgakov has been relieved of the post of deputy minister of defence and will be replaced by Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev
Recruiting mercenaries? Russian citizenship for foreigners who enlist in the Russian army for at least a year, bypassing the normal requirement for five years of residency in the country.
In case any missed it, an interview with Ukrainian anarchist group, Assembly
” «Big capital and its “Western” governments sat down to contemplate and even to accelerate the deterioration of the situation. Once the invasion had begun they were anxious to see whether Ukraine would resist and to calculate what they could get out of each possible outcome. Now that Ukraine is resisting they eagerly extend offers of “help” for which they will expect payment later». Western governments and the military-industrial complex have their own financial interests, and these interests are not in a quick victory for Ukraine, but in making the war protracted. Otherwise, they would have already delivered enough heavy weapons to Ukraine, and the war could have ended until this autumn. ”
First they send the military advisers and then they send the troops, the USA has used the same tactic all over the earth
This, from the linked to article, misrepresents Putin’s statement. Putin was responding to nuclear threats from Western nations, primarily the US, and was merely reminding said foe that Russia would react in kind. Russia, it must be remembered, has no nuclear first use policy except under the condition that its nationhood is threatened.
“During his Wednesday speech mobilizing Russian reservists, Russian President Vladimir Putin made veiled nuclear threats against Ukraine’s western allies.”
A little additional reading from a well respected US analyst that should help clarify: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/
Watched a video last night and it made the point that if Russia was to use nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian conflict they would literally be shooting themselves in the foot since the nuclear fallout would be blown back all over Russia. Sounds correct.
Douglas Macgregor is a hard-core anti-communist so he’s in good company here. He believes the greatest tragedy of WWII is that the Nazis didn’t focus all their efforts on destroying the USSR. Despite this, his analysis of events re Ukraine is surprisingly good.
“Watched a video last night and it made the point that if Russia was to use nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian conflict they would literally be shooting themselves in the foot”
Yes, which is why the Kremlin has no intention of using nukes in Ukraine. Talk otherwise is alarmist nonsense. The only condition under which Russia would use nukes is if its existence as a nation state is threatened. As of now we are very far from that possibility.
However, TS, won’t the absorption of the Donbas into Russia Proper (happening now via the referenda) mean that Ukraine’s attacks on it, using NATO arms, will be construed as just that: an attack on Russia?
Which will then push Moscow to nuke the West?Alien1, I think SPGB members made it clear that Ukraine giving up territory is necessary for any negotiated peace. That any idea of re-claiming Crimea is not feasible.
It has turned into a war of attrition and of course, Russia demographically is in the better position for a prolonged protracted conflict.
There can be no military solution for Ukraine but does Putin believe there might still be for Russia?
Some things strike me.
Why did Russia withdraw from the suburbs of Kiev? They demonstrated in previous wars such as the destruction of Grozny their ruthlessness regardless of civilian collateral casualties. Was it for humanitarian reasons? Or they know urban war is fraught with difficulties and the expected surrender never came.
The early days when mass Russian convoys moved along the highways ended with the supply of artillery and rockets to Ukraine.
Will it be a return to trench warfare?And can it overspill? I read this of the NATO base on the Polish border.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-how-to-repair-the-ukrainian-armys-modern-weapons/a-63215373
The trendy young women saying men have to fight for the “Motherland” would instantly turn away from an ex-soldier missing a face.
“However, TS, won’t the absorption of the Donbas into Russia Proper (happening now via the referenda) mean that Ukraine’s attacks on it, using NATO arms, will be construed as just that: an attack on Russia?”
Yes, it will be considered an attack on Russia meaning the Special Military operation will probably soon be replaced by a declaration of war. As a result we can expect Ukrainian dual use infrastructure and decision making centers will likely be targeted. But Russia is not facing an existential threat from the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians are spent. They threw everything but the kitchen sink at Russia in the recent offensives. With the call up of reserves, Russia’s military superiority will be overwhelming.
“Which will then push Moscow to nuke the West?”
There are only two circumstances under which I can imagine such a thing happening. 1: NATO nukes first which I believe is highly unlikely. If such happens, that’s the end of human civilization as we know it. It’s too terrible to imagine. 2: NATO fully mobilises against Russia and starts winning the ground war. If Scott Ritter is to be believed, NATO is no match for Russia anywhere near Russia’s border so this is too is highly unlikely.
Having said all that, I wouldn’t chastise the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists for moving the Doomsday Clock a few seconds closer to midnight.
“The trendy young women saying men have to fight for the “Motherland” would instantly turn away from an ex-soldier missing a face.”
There are plenty of images from the war itself.
War is hell. Images of what weapons do to the human body should be viewed by anyone ever contemplating armed conflict. But it was not Russia that wanted this war, it was Natostan. Unfortunately, they got what they wanted. The only hope now is for the Ukrainian people to overthrow their fascist leaders and sue for peace.
“Why did Russia withdraw from the suburbs of Kiev?”
Putin explained why. It was a gesture of good faith re negotiations for the end of the conflict.
“They demonstrated in previous wars such as the destruction of Grozny their ruthlessness regardless of civilian collateral casualties.”
Where did you get that news Alan? Let me guess…The Guardian? The war in Chechnya was against fanatical, US supported Islamo-fascists. They dug in to the cities. They won’t leave by just being asked nicely.
“Was it for humanitarian reasons? Or they know urban war is fraught with difficulties and the expected surrender never came.”
Like I said, it was a good will gesture but also the troops there had served their purpose which was to hold Ukrainian forces in place there while the Russians shaped the battlefield in the east.
“The early days when mass Russian convoys moved along the highways ended with the supply of artillery and rockets to Ukraine.”
No, they ended before that. Russia was hoping that Ukraine would capitulate to its demands early on. And they nearly did til Bojo convinced the Ukrainians otherwise.
“Will it be a return to trench warfare?”
There’s already plenty of trench warfare but Russia doesn’t mind. They can lob their artillery and missiles at the entrenchments indefinitely. Eventually the Ukrainians crack, the Russians flush any survivors out, move the artillery up to new positions then rinse and repeat.
“And can it overspill? I read this of the NATO base on the Polish border.”
The Polish are led by fanatics. It’s certainly possible. If Poland gets involved the Russians will be far less patient with them than they have been with the Ukrainians.
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