Russian Tensions
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It seems The Guardian is as gung-ho as the other UK papers.
So when you say there won’t be a nuclear war, can you elaborate why not?
What about China too?And why are there to be Russian nuclear manoeuvres?
For a start, NATO has said it won’t react militarily to any Russian invasion of Ukraine. Second, Russia is not going to invade Poland or the Baltic states, which would provoke a military response. Third, Biden and Putin and their generals are not that mad.
Members and non-members of the Socialist Party should read or re-read our pamphlet on wars. There is not going to be any war between the capitalists
Please say why not.
We have on this forum one person saying that the end of civilisation is nigh due to global warming and another that it is nigh due to a coming nuclear war. Why do people find it easier to conceive of the end of the world than of the end of capitalism, I think somebody once asked (I can’t remember who. I think he was called Jackson or Jamieson or something like that)?
‘Why do people find it easier to conceive of the end of the world than of the end of capitalism,’
ALB – One of the reasons maybe the continuous repetitive narratives in our culture that problems can be resolved by violence. Revenge on and/or the extermination of the ‘bad guys’ in so many movies, graphic novels, TV dramas and versions of history all insist that violence (war) is the only solution. In some versions it is the planet itself that takes revenge on our species – something many environmentalists seem to look forward to but, of course, they will be the first to complain if it becomes a reality just as those who advocate war will not be the first to join up to kill or die.
We have always said that war is the last resource to be used by the capitalists until all negotiations and diplomatic measures have been exhausted and contradictions among them become antagonistic
I would say it is antagonistic now, wouldn’t you?
Oh hardly. NATO was warned ages ago after the breakdown of the Warsaw Pact countries alliances,about expanding their territory and chose to ignore the warnings of their diplomats and commanders and government others.
We have on this forum one person saying that the end of civilisation is nigh due to global warming and another that it is nigh due to a coming nuclear war. Why do people find it easier to conceive of the end of the world than of the end of capitalism
The permanent solution to what can easily become existential threats to civilised societies (not necessarily the extinction of the human species) is socialism.
But socialism is not inevitable. We don’t accept a determinist interpretation and understand that humanity has a choice to make and as thinking animals, we expect that such decisions will be made intelligently and rationally. But we have no guarantee that it will be.
History and present times have shown that people can and will act against their own interests.
We are therefore left with the conclusion described by socialists such as Engels and Luxemburg – “Socialism or Barbarism”, to which Istvan Meszaros astutely added “If we are lucky”
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday that Russia could invade Ukraine “any day,” launching a conflict that would come at an “enormous human cost.”
It is true as ALB suggests that NATO and Russia do not seek an all-out war and certainly not any type of nuclear exchange. (However, an ominous sign is that an exercise of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces usually is held end of each year has been rescheduled for mid-February to March.)
But there is something called “mission creep”, an unintended and unplanned escalation. Did the Americans really want to have a half-million soldiers in Vietnam?
What is intended as a mere incursion across the borders could lead to a more intensive drawn-out conflict. They may pretend to be crystal ball readers, but generals and ministers of war can’t predict the future and do make mistakes.
The aftermath of the Iraq invasion was foreseen by many experts but advice ignored by the decision-makers.
My fear is that the two sides are digging themselves into a hole with their demands and soon neither will be able to back down without losing face.
Ukraine downplayed a possible incursion by Russia on Sunday saying do not to believe “apocalyptic predictions”
The chances of finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis remained “substantially higher than the threat of further escalation”, added Ukraine’s presidency adviser Mykhailo Podolyak.
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