Quick thoughts on north Korea
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JUst a quick thought: North Korea's situation is untenable: it knows it could not survive, much less win, an encounter with the US. It's only credible threat is that it could obliterate Soeul. A strike on Guam would hinder the US (concievably hampering its Pacific strategy enough that China could step in).
More likely, it seems to me, after the Security Council vote on sanctions, DPRK is trying to ensure China relaxes its stance: China does not want war in region, does not want US forces extended all the way to the Korea/China border, and a united Korea blocking its South China Sea trade routes (though new trans asian rail routes may have lessened this strategic impulse). Nonetheless, China is 76% of DPRK's markets, and the sanctions will cut DPRK's revenue by a third.
Also likely, is making credible threats may deter pre-emptive or preventetive action by the US.
Technically, even threatening to attack Guam gives the US justification to attack DPRK: that it hasn't yet is indicative that maybe it just wants to allow the siege to work. After all, what teh US wants is a continual wedge issue, rational heads do not want a catestrophic war.
Useful post from Paul Rogers:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/trump-vs-northkorea-45echo
Quote:The second and less obvious reason is to do with the nature of the administration now assembled in Washington. Its internal civil-military balance is the key factor. The state department is presently much weakened, with many key diplomatic and executive appointments still unfilled after nine months. This contrasts with the remarkable penetrationof the administration by senior military personnel.This is also a useful article:https://www.opendemocracy.net/gabrielle-rifkind/what-does-north-korea-want
Quote:Last week the United Nations Security Council agreed fresh sanctions against North Korea. A resolution was passed banning North Korean exports and limiting investments in the country. The export of coal, ore and other raw materials to China is one of North Korea's few sources of cash. And it is estimated to be worth $3bn worth of goods each year. Earlier this year, China suspended imports of coal to increase pressure on Pyongyang.In spite of this, President Trump tweeted last week that he was very disappointed with the Chinese and that, “our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet … they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk.” Provoking the Chinese will not be an effective way to proceed, since any identifiable successful outcome will only be achieved with the support of China. For their part, the Chinese are concerned that if North Korea collapses, it would leave China’s 1400-kilometre-long Yalu River border with North Korea exposed. It fears the potential chaos of state collapse and the crossing into China of up to 5 million refugees. From the Chinese perspective, as well, the North Korean regime acting as a buffer zone is preferable to a potentially reunified Korean peninsula with the threat of US troops on their border.It is only a cockfight. There is not going to be any war at the present time. In the old days when the USA was the world power number one they would invade any country right away, and most international organization used to support them, now they are in retreat. The world situation has changed, now they might be confronting another power armed with atomic bombs and closer to China, and the chinese rulers are not going to permit the US next to their borders.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187
Quote:Why has North Korea chosen to do this now? Firstly to demonstrate resolve. It shows the regime in Pyongyang is not intimidated by American threats and has not "backed down", as President Trump suggested two weeks ago.Secondly, Pyongyang needs to test its new missile on a more realistic trajectory. Thirdly, such a test puts a strain on the US-Japan relationship. It makes Japan feel extremely vulnerable and tests US resolve.A commentator was on the radio this morning calling for sanctions that cut off all money to North Korea: aka a full seige.This is upping the ante, and it's clearly rattled China, who don't want war, and it will rattle a lot of Japanese people. The only question is, can the US find a face saving route away from war?
Young Master Smeet wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187Quote:Why has North Korea chosen to do this now? Firstly to demonstrate resolve. It shows the regime in Pyongyang is not intimidated by American threats and has not "backed down", as President Trump suggested two weeks ago.Secondly, Pyongyang needs to test its new missile on a more realistic trajectory. Thirdly, such a test puts a strain on the US-Japan relationship. It makes Japan feel extremely vulnerable and tests US resolve.A commentator was on the radio this morning calling for sanctions that cut off all money to North Korea: aka a full seige.This is upping the ante, and it's clearly rattled China, who don't want war, and it will rattle a lot of Japanese people. The only question is, can the US find a face saving route away from war?
The Yankees want every country to have Machetes, Mochas, and kitchen knives to be able to invade them, and they always need a secretary to win a war, and in several places, they have been defeated by peasants It is not the same thing to go and invade Grenada, or the Dominican Republic where the peoples from the Ghettos had sticks, old revolvers, and kitchen knife to fight against them, and they killed 10,000 peoples looking for Communists, in a country which did not have a communist party, or to pick up some USA citizens that were drinking rum and coke in Boca Chica, than to invade North Korea, Russia, or China which possess atomic bombs. Despite all their advanced armaments they had to sign an agreement with the rebels from the Ghettos, they did not defeat them, the poor peoples continued fighting for more than `16 yearsBefore the war in Iraq, Lybia was the one who had the real weapon of mass destruction, and nobody was able to attack them, they did it when Kadaffi sent all the detonators, and they found him with his pants down, and they are going to do the same thing with the members of the Colombian FARC It would be easier for them to invade Venezuela than to invade North Korea, and the real objective is China, and China does not want that kind of neighbour near their borders. These are terrorists against terrorists, pimps fighting for the same business deal
North Korea said last Sunday that its intention to denuclearize, unveiled at an historic inter-Korean summit, was not the result of U.S.-led sanctions and pressure, warning the United States not to mislead public opinion.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea/north-korea-says-denuclearization-pledge-not-result-of-u-s-led-sanctions-idUSKBN1I703M
gnome wrote:North Korea said last Sunday that its intention to denuclearize, unveiled at an historic inter-Korean summit, was not the result of U.S.-led sanctions and pressure, warning the United States not to mislead public opinion.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea/north-korea-says-denuclearization-pledge-not-result-of-u-s-led-sanctions-idUSKBN1I703MThe biggest pressure comes from China which is the main importer/exporter of commodities and technology of North Korea, and the so called peace agreement wont be accepted by the Chinese if it will affect their global interests. The real reason is that China does not want to have the USA to close to their borders, they already have sufficient millitary bases around them. The real objective is not a small country like North Korea, it is a gigantic country like China. Whoever believe in their rulers is believing in fairy tales
This article and pictures shows that the real target is China. The US has more than 400 bases, ships and nukes around China. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2331190/us-readies-for-war-with-china-with-400-bases-of-ships-and-nukes-to-create-perfect-noose-around-superpower-rival/
The president of North Korea is travelling to the summit in Singapore using China presidential plane. That is a clear indication of who really is behind this negotiation and who the real boss is
Credit where credit is due. Anything that reduces the threat of war is to be welcomed. Regardless of Trump, this is perhaps his greatest foreign policy achievement, something akin to Nixon's ping-pong diplomacy, or Reagan's Evil Empire strategy to bring don the Soviet Union.However, we have to ponder the difference in approach to Iran and wonder if, as many suspect, the US is acting in the interests of Israel in regard to Iran.The agreement with North Korea has no verification process for de-nuclearisation and there was no insistence upon access to North Korea's nuclear facilities. In an interview i watched, Trump says the US will be able to monitor the dismantling but then contradicts himself a little bit later by admitting the US has very limited intelligence capability when it comes to North Korea. He also said the question of no human rights in the dictatorship was not an issue for him.When asked about the difference with Iran, Trump could only refer to the so-called $170 billion Iran is receiving and the interviewer failed to explain that this cash being given to Iran is its own funds frozen and stolen by sanctions.As i said, anything that reduces the threat of confrontation is something we can applaud and i await Trump to talk directly with Iran's ayatollahs….but we know Israel will not endorse such talks…
alanjjohnstone wrote:Credit where credit is due. Anything that reduces the threat of war is to be welcomed. Regardless of Trump, this is perhaps his greatest foreign policy achievement, something akin to Nixon's ping-pong diplomacy, or Reagan's Evil Empire strategy to bring don the Soviet Union.However, we have to ponder the difference in approach to Iran and wonder if, as many suspect, the US is acting in the interests of Israel in regard to Iran.The agreement with North Korea has no verification process for de-nuclearisation and there was no insistence upon access to North Korea's nuclear facilities. In an interview i watched, Trump says the US will be able to monitor the dismantling but then contradicts himself a little bit later by admitting the US has very limited intelligence capability when it comes to North Korea. He also said the question of no human rights in the dictatorship was not an issue for him.When asked about the difference with Iran, Trump could only refer to the so-called $170 billion Iran is receiving and the interviewer failed to explain that this cash being given to Iran is its own funds frozen and stolen by sanctions.As i said, anything that reduces the threat of confrontation is something we can applaud and i await Trump to talk directly with Iran's ayatollahs….but we know Israel will not endorse such talks…Sadly Alan I think you’re only ever example of optimism may be be misplaced. Despite all of the publicity the real reason behind the summit was that it was actually the final of the World’s Shittest Haircut Competition. Unfortunately for the ultra stalinists Arthur Scargill was knocked out at the semi final stage. From what I understand the final ended as a draw and in line with usual protocol Angela Merkel won on penalties.
alanjjohnstone wrote:Credit where credit is due. Anything that reduces the threat of war is to be welcomed. Regardless of Trump, this is perhaps his greatest foreign policy achievement, something akin to Nixon's ping-pong diplomacy, or Reagan's Evil Empire strategy to bring don the Soviet Union.However, we have to ponder the difference in approach to Iran and wonder if, as many suspect, the US is acting in the interests of Israel in regard to Iran.The agreement with North Korea has no verification process for de-nuclearisation and there was no insistence upon access to North Korea's nuclear facilities. In an interview i watched, Trump says the US will be able to monitor the dismantling but then contradicts himself a little bit later by admitting the US has very limited intelligence capability when it comes to North Korea. He also said the question of no human rights in the dictatorship was not an issue for him.When asked about the difference with Iran, Trump could only refer to the so-called $170 billion Iran is receiving and the interviewer failed to explain that this cash being given to Iran is its own funds frozen and stolen by sanctions.As i said, anything that reduces the threat of confrontation is something we can applaud and i await Trump to talk directly with Iran's ayatollahs….but we know Israel will not endorse such talks…I think this is a deal orchestrated by China, and this deal will not bring any peace to the region, the same confrontation are going to continue and the USA is going to keep its troops in South Korea. The Chinese rulers do not want the US as their neighbours. They signed an agreement with North Korea but they are opening an embassy in Taiwan which is a violation of a treaty signed by the USA and China and it is also a provocation for the Chinese.North Korea knows about what the USA did in Libya when they gave up their nuclear arsenal, they might have destroyed the testing site, but I don't think they are going to destroy their nuclear weapons.Obama unfreeze all the assets of the Iranian and a large sum of money was given back to them including the interests of the money held by banks, and others portion were down payment made on a deal to buy military aeroplanes, legally that money belong to Iran, it is not a gift
No worth the paperhttp://www.worldsocialism.org/spgb/education/depth-articles/politics-and-conflict/not-worth-paperTreaties, accord an agreement between the capitalists has always been violated by the same parties involved in those agreements. They always find an escape clause to be used as an excuse to void their own agreements. The only peace among the capitalists is the peace of the cemeteries
Only two days have passed since the signing of the agreement and they are contradicting each other. This is going to be Gaddafi part 2. Peace under capitalism is only an illusion
alanjjohnstone wrote:Credit where credit is due. Anything that reduces the threat of war is to be welcomed. Regardless of Trump, this is perhaps his greatest foreign policy achievement, something akin to Nixon's ping-pong diplomacy, or Reagan's Evil Empire strategy to bring don the Soviet Union.However, we have to ponder the difference in approach to Iran and wonder if, as many suspect, the US is acting in the interests of Israel in regard to Iran.The agreement with North Korea has no verification process for de-nuclearisation and there was no insistence upon access to North Korea's nuclear facilities. In an interview i watched, Trump says the US will be able to monitor the dismantling but then contradicts himself a little bit later by admitting the US has very limited intelligence capability when it comes to North Korea. He also said the question of no human rights in the dictatorship was not an issue for him.When asked about the difference with Iran, Trump could only refer to the so-called $170 billion Iran is receiving and the interviewer failed to explain that this cash being given to Iran is its own funds frozen and stolen by sanctions.As i said, anything that reduces the threat of confrontation is something we can applaud and i await Trump to talk directly with Iran's ayatollahs….but we know Israel will not endorse such talks…Don't be too optimistic about this TV show. It is going to be similar to the Cuba agreement. They signed a treaty but the sanctions against North Korea are going to continue. This deal was started in 2008 during Obama and the Republican did not want to approve it. This agreement can be reversed by any new president
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