Out of recession?

[Young Master Smeet]

http://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-are-we-facing-another-financial-crisis-34331

Quote:

Since then, the American philanthropist Richard Vague – who made his fortune in banking – has examined all major economic crises since 1850, and concluded that the two key signs of an imminent crisis are private debt exceeding 1.5 times GDP and that ratio rising by 17 percentage points or more over five years. Both those signals were clearly “flashing red” in 2007.

Kind of grist to the dis[proprtionality thesis, if that debt relates to ivnestment and profitability relates to growth.

Quote:

That, combined with Richard Vague’s indicator that crises occur when private debt exceeds 150% of GDP (tick at 170% in mid-2014) and has grown by 20 percentage points or more over five years (in fact it’s shrunk by 30 percentage points since 2010), points to stagnation rather than crisis being the likely outcome for the UK economy.

Stagnation actually being wqorse than crisis, since Labour and Tories have always relied heavily on growth as their get out of jail for political discontent.  The fact that they've been reduced over recent years to cheering ovr growth of a pathetic 1% indicates how stuck they are.  Over the last century, the trend was 3%, the lower the growth, the greater the need to engage in direct class conrontation.  If they can't provide us with a share of a bigegr pie, then we can only take some of their slice…

[Author]

Posts