Ireland Elects
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So they're off: http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0203/764971-general-election-called/
26th February (that's pretty snap, but bear in mind, the winner will be the Government by Easter this way, and it stops certain parties calling for a 'new uprising' tryibng to trade off the centenary).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election,_2016#Opinion_polls
Fine Gael seem pretty stuck on 30%, so likely to govern again (and a short campaign will benefit them in this) the economy is sound, so they should get their term, with Labour as their Mini Me.
Rag-tag trots are standing as: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Austerity_Alliance%E2%80%93People_Before_Profit
On about 3%…
Oh, dear, Fine Gael say "No more boom and bust" and have a long term economic strategy… where have we heard that before?
Will our phantom, will o' wisp WSP of Ireland be issuing an election statement that we can post on various Irish social media sites?
In the meantime and in the absence of a forthcoming official statement, the SOYMB blog has patched together thishttp://socialismoryourmoneyback.blogspot.com/2016/02/irelands-2016-election-is-off-and.html
This is interestinghttp://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/A one minute video by every declared candidate (there are only about 500) but it'd be interesting to see if the BBC did somethign like this next time round here.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/bad-news-for-fine-gael-in-first-election-poll-718916.htmlFirst poll of the election, note, that like a lot across Europe, non-aligned candidates are actually quite strong (25%), and Fine Gael/Labour as a coalition are currently not rocking enough votes to come back together again, which means some of the independents and back woodsmen are going to be driving a hard bargain (expect a fairly conservative regime next time, with plenty of pork).
Quote:Bertie Ahern has forecast that the election on February 26th will be followed by another one later this year. The former taoiseach could well be proved right – at this stage an inconclusive result appears the most likely outcome.An interesting perspective:http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0208/766238-fiscal-space-this-madness-must-end/For all the fluff and nonsense of an electioin campaign, they are basically arguing over the space of €8.6 billion (3% of total budget) that's what all the differences come down to: a clear example of how capitalist polticians aren't in charge of the system (and even that money is in doubt, if the world goes a bit spammy again)
Ireland looks set to buck the European trend:http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0223/770130-election-redc-poll/Labour is taking a hammering, and only the old Nationalist parties, Fine gael and Fianna Fail (both right of centre) are holding up, any leftward vote (even including Sinn Fein, if you feel so inclined) is looking hideously fragmented. Labour is being hammered as the minor coalition partner.Irelands PR system makes polling complex, but the only stable majority govrnment is Fine Gael/Fianna Fail : that might in some ways be a good thing for bringing things to a head and establishing a more normal European left/right split.A radical coalition could emerge, but I reckon another election within a year is mroe likely…
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/vincent-browne-do-not-worry-about-gerry-adams-and-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.2545703This si a canny take down on the Irish elections:
Quote:Nothing of consequence will change in Irish society with this election. Over one million people will continue to live in deprivation; nearly one in five of everyone in employment will continue to be paid pittances; thousands of poorer people will die prematurely (this was estimated a decade ago to be around 5,000 annually); us – rich people – will crash the queues for preferential healthcare, others will be left on trollies and waiting lists; schools will make no significant difference to the life chances of children and young adults; only the few will exert any influence on public policy; our democracy will remain hollow.Quote:Now all [Sinn Fein] venture is to increase the minimum wage to €9.65 an hour. There is some decent analysis of social conditions in the Sinn Féin manifesto, but the thrust of the manifesto is so cautious and “responsible” one wonders why they don’t they just merge with Fine Gael, along with the Labour Party, Fianna Fáil, Renua and Shane Ross?Could hardly had put it better ourselves.
This for me has been the most depressing commentary on the Irish election i have so far readhttp://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/25/the-2016-irish-elections-sinn-fein-v-the-empire/
Quote:Gerry Adams, the leader of Sinn Féin, once famously said that “the IRA haven’t gone away”. If Sinn Féin finds itself in power next week the fighting spirit of the IRA must be quickly found again and used creatively. If it is – Europe’s anti-austerity movement may find the backbone it so badly needs. To have a chance it needs a strong dose of no nonsense anti-imperialism.http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0228/771304-live-election-2016-national-updates/Live updates, Left diaspora doing well, but Fine Gael and Fianna Fail well ahead. 60% of seats declared, so far.
Well, with ten seats yet to declare FF and FG have 90 seats between them, so, unless I'm missing something, it would be impossible to form a coalition without one or other of them. Some whisperers did talk of an FG/FF coalition, and it looks like the only stable government, so it is the most likely, I don't think it can be ruled out, and to be honest, it could achieve the left/right orientation in Irish oplitics some think has been needed, this is probably Adam's last throw as SF leader, so the coming generation will have clean hands, and maybe may be able to form a broad nationalist-left coalition.That said, depending how the last 10 fall, I think FG could go for it with Labour and the Social Democrats, plus a couple of Independent, in either case, I suspects Kenny remains (technically it shouldn't matter, but Higgins is a Labour president, so that may edge things a little).
The interesting thing is how rapid the breakdown of the old Fine Gail/Fianna Fail, Tweedledee.Tweedledum system has been. The fact that they both might have to agree that the traditional choice between them is no different to choosing Coke or Pepsi, might leave them both with a huge credibility gap. I can't see any great number of "independents" lining up with FG. I think a more natural home for many of them would be alongside the "slightly constiutional" FF
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