IPCC on Land

[Young Master Smeet]

https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl-report-download-page/

Sometimes, when I talk about planning, this report is the sort of thing I mean, a clear, concise inventorisation of the situation and how we could utilise resources:

People currently use one quarter to one third of land’s potential net primary
production10 for food, feed, fibre, timber and energy. Land provides the basis for many other
ecosystem functions and services11, including cultural and regulating services, that are essential
for humanity (high confidence). In one economic approach, the world’s terrestrial ecosystem
services have been valued on an annual basis to be approximately equivalent to the annual global
Gross Domestic Product12 (medium confidence). {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5, Figure SPM.1}

[…]

Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen
nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change,
including increases in frequency and intensity of extremes, has adversely impacted food
security and terrestrial ecosystems as well as contributed to desertification and land
degradation in many regions (high confidence). {2.2, 3.2, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 5.1, 5.2, Executive
Summary Chapter 7, 7.2}

[…]

Future land use depends, in part, on the desired climate outcome and the
portfolio of response options deployed (high confidence). All assessed modelled pathways
that limit warming to 1.5ºC or well below 2°C require land-based mitigation and land-use
change, with most including different combinations of reforestation, afforestation, reduced
deforestation, and bioenergy (high confidence). A small number of modelled pathways
achieve 1.5ºC with reduced land conversion (high confidence) and, thus, reduced
consequences for desertification, land degradation, and food security (medium confidence).
{2.6, 6.4, 7.4, 7.6; Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6; Figure SPM.4}

Of course, the big headline grabber is:

Consumption of healthy and sustainable diets presents major opportunities for reducing GHG
emissions from food systems and improving health outcomes (high confidence). Examples of
healthy and sustainable diets are high in coarse grains, pulses, fruits and vegetables, and nuts and
seeds; low in energy-intensive animal-sourced and discretionary foods (such as sugary beverages);
and with a carbohydrate threshold. Total mitigation potential of dietary changes is estimated as 1.8-
GtCO2eq yr-1 by 2050 at prices ranging from 20-100 USD/tCO2 (medium confidence). This
estimate includes reductions in emissions from livestock and soil carbon sequestration on spared land,
but co-benefits with health are not taken into account. Mitigation potential of dietary change may be
higher, but achievement of this potential at broad scales depends on consumer choices and dietary
preferences that are guided by social, cultural, environmental, and traditional factors, as well as
income growth. Meat analogues such as imitation meat (from plant products), cultured meat, and
insects may help in the transition to more healthy and sustainable diets, although their carbon
footprints and acceptability are uncertain. {5.5.2, 5.6.5} [from a different document].

 

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