French Tensions
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So, Macron has called an election. So the National front (Nowadays called National Rally) did really well in the Euro elections 930 sets, and coming first in France). Overall, conservative parties did very well in France.
https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/france/So, Macron is gambling to call the bluff of the RN: they barely have more votes than the Leftist France Insoumise, and under enforced two round voting, RN might not win many more seats: Macron is gambling ether they’ll be shut out, or they’ll be impelled into a lame duck administration, so the boil might be lanced.
A thing to note is these far right parties are not threatening to overturn democracy, however vicious their policies are (and they are in power in Italy currently).
They are also against warmongering against Russia.
Surely a right winger for peace is better than a left winger for war?Yes it’s not easy to decide who is the moindre mal if you believe in that principle. I have always liked Steve Coleman’s quip that what we are faced with is the evil of two lessers.
These have undoubtedly been the wildest 72 hours in French politics in my lifetime. Pretty incredible stuff.
A 🧵
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 13, 2024
Apparently things are a bit hectic in France, the left have formed a popular front (including the “Socialist” Party), while the republican party has descended into chaos over whether to bloc with the national front, whilst other right wing parties descend into infighting: maybe Macron has wrong footed everyone.
With the French voting system, it means the New Popular Front should make it to the second round (I believe top 3 go through in Parliamentary elections).
Just checked, anyone with more than 12% goes through, but in practice that will be the top three. If RN come first, and Macronists 2nd, I’d expect NPF to split and give some votes to the Macronists. I don’t think the favour would be reciprocated, so NPF will only win seats basically, I suspect, where they already hold them, and where they come first in the first round.
I don’t think the third or indeed any of the candidates has to go through. One of them can withdraw in favour of another. This will be why there is a two-week delay between the two rounds of elections — to allow deals to be done in smoke-filled rooms.
I think the bar is 12.5%, one eighth. Which means that in theory 7 candidates could go through.
Just realised that we have been labouring under a misapprehension. It is not 12.5 percent of the votes cast but 12.5 percent of the total electorate. Which means that it is very unlikely that more than 3 candidates can get through to the second round ( if they choose to). In fact it makes 3-way contests much less common.
First exit poll:
National Rally: 34%
New Popular Front: 28.1%
French President Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance: 20.3%
Republicans: 10.2%Could be enough for an RN majority….
A thing to consider, the now largely defunct republican Party completely dominate the Senate (it is elected by local councils, and the number of conservative rural councils have always predominated against the highly populous Paris and other cities. The next Senate election is 2026, so as RN makes gains in local government, it may increase representation in the Senate, until then, it will be a block on their programme: the question of whether the Gaullist right will capitulate to RN or obstruct will be interesting. The senate is elected by halves, so even in 2026 it’ll be unlikely for RN to make a majority. The big showdown will come in 2027 when Macron’s term is up.
The current betting seems to me to be a minority RN administration, limping on from vote to vote unable to enact its programme. Whether this will galvanise or drain it’s supporters is the big question. But France seems set for paralysis for several years.
The leader of the French Communist Party, Fabien Roussel, lost his seat to a RN candidate.
This is a seat – Nord’s 20th constituency – that had been held by the French Communist Party since the early 1960s:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord%27s_20th_constituency#2024
Via the Financial Times, interesting breakdown of the vote in the French parliamentary elections:
So, looking at the RN manifesto, a few points stick out: there’s nothing =in there we haven’t seen from the Tories.
https://rassemblementnational.fr/22-mesures
They want to create citizen initiatives and electoral PR (they have suffered under the French system, but at least they clearly aren’t promising to end democracy).
They seem to want school uniforms and proper discipline.
“Mettre en place le patriotisme économique pour réindustrialiser et produire les richesses en France.”
Sounds like Starmerism.
“Garantir aux paysans des prix respectueux de leur travail et mettre un terme aux marges abusives de la grande distribution.”
Pitching for the peasant vote.
“Favoriser l’accès à la propriété et au logement des Français”
The Tories have done that here, vile racist stuff. Liekwise, they promise an end to immigration and an attack on Islamism.
They seem to have basically become the face of whatever French is for saloon bar bore.
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