Coronavirus
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Japan
Densely populated a bit?
Partial/ no lockdown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Japan
Macau most densely populated place in the world?
Partial lockdown; or casino’s kept open.
No deaths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Macau
Who is living in a make-believe world of spooks?
on Sweden
After the first survey measured the spread of coronavirus in Stockholm in April, a second survey will determine how many more were infected one month later.
Published May 05, 2020By the first weeks of April, 10 percent of Stockholm’s population had been infected with the coronavirus and developed antibodies, according to sampling collected via post from 1,000 of the city’s residents. KTH researchers now will follow up with a second mailing of 1,000 sample collection kits in order to determine the spread over the last four weeks.
The results provide a snapshot of the spread of infection Stockholm had accumulated by Easter. Of 1,000 anonymous home sampling kits sent, 550 were returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.
The incubation period for COVID-19 ranges from 2 to 14 days following exposure, with most cases showing symptoms approximately 4 to 5 days after exposure. The average sampling day was April 11, says Niclas Roxhed, associate professor at KTH.
<figure class=”block figure” lang=”en-UK” data-cid=”1.981041″>
<figcaption class=”figure-caption”>Lab engineers Matilda Dale and Annika Bendes work with the sample analysis.</figcaption></figure>
The mailings were evenly distributed to men and women, chosen at random, and ranging in age between 20 and 74, from a population of 1.22 million people in 717,850 households.
“We really need the public’s help now,” Roxhed says. “Only with as many contributions as possible can we get a true picture of the spread of infection.
“And this allows us to put into practice a way for everyone who needs to be tested to be able to test themselves.”
Roxhed (KTH) and Olof Beck (Karolinska Institutet) are responsible for sampling and mailing. Analysis of antibodies and proteins is led by Jochen Schwenk and Claudia Fredolini (both from KTH / SciLifeLab). Production of viral proteins is handled by Gerald McInerney, Leo Hanke and Benjamin Murrell (all three from Karolinska Institutet).
it is a bit speculative but going from Swedish death curve as a descriptive model they might be at about 20% now
there was another Swedish serological on heath workers only that had about 20%
I will have to look for it later.
the highest were I think about 70% by PCR in an American prison population ?
Computer translate
about 20 percent of the employees have antibodies,
There are many indications that one in five employees at Danderyds hospital have had COVID-19. Further analyzes will show how many of these have shown symptoms or been ill. Photo: Cecilia Larsson Lantz
It shows a first reconciliation in the COMMUNITY study that started at Danderyd’s hospital just over a week ago.
– After 527 tests, we can see that about 20 percent of the employees have antibodies, says the doctor and researcher Charlotte Thålin, who runs the study together with professors Sophia Hober, KTH and Peter Nilsson, SciLifeLab.
The study is the first in the world that can provide such safe results.– The idea of the study is not only to determine how many of the employees who have had COVID-19, we also want to be able to determine how long an individual has antibodies and is most likely immune to COVID-19, says Charlotte Thålin.
– It will be exciting to see if antibody formation is related to possible symptoms, and whether there has been more infection in the departments that care for COVID-19 patients.In just over a week, the research groups around the COMMUNITY study have been able to test 527 of Danderyd Hospital’s employees. These have not yet been able to get their individual answers, but the research team is doing everything to make it happen in the near future. At present, only employees at Danderyd’s hospital are tested in the study. But in the future it is entirely possible to test everyone in the population, only there are resources for it.
– We still don’t know for sure whether antibodies mean immunity, but there is much to be said. In that case, people who are told that antibodies have been formed could work without the risk of becoming infected, or of infecting others, which is of great importance not only for health care and other socially beneficial functions, but also for society as a whole, says Charlotte Thålin .
High validation
According to the analyzes made regarding the validation of the test results, the results are almost 100 percent reliable.
– In the validation conducted so far, more than 400 samples with known answers have been analyzed, of which just over 100 have been positive and 300 negative. In all these cases, this method of analysis has given the correct answer, ie 100 percent correct. Since it is important to know more about this, we will continue to analyze known samples and thus further validate the method, says Professor Sophia Hober.The study runs for at least one year
Now the study continues at Danderyds hospital and the hope is that within a few weeks all the staff who want to be included in the study will have tested. Employees fill out a questionnaire where they indicate whether they have had symptoms and where they are at the hospital. After three months there will be a follow-up where you test the same individuals again, whether you have had antibodies or not. Thereafter, several follow-ups continue; after six months, one year and probably even after two and five years.
The study also creates a biobank with plasma samples from inpatient patients with COVID-19. The purpose is, together with other research groups, to investigate possible prognostic markers. These blood tests can also provide important information about possible treatment options.
Brief facts about the study
• Employees go into an app and book times for testing, where the answer is also stated after about 2 weeks. Complete confidentiality is ensured, for example, by the employee signing with his BankID.
• After the first test, follow-up is done after 3, 6 and 12 months, probably even after 2 and 5 years respectively. This is because the study wants to know how long an individual has antibodies. The follow-up is done regardless of whether the individual had initially formed antibodies or not.
• The test method has been developed at SciLifeLab and KTH.
• The research group from Danderyds Hospital includes specialist physician Charlotte Thålin, ST physician Ann-Sofie Rudberg and specialist physician Sebastian Havervall.
• The research group from KTH includes professors Sophia Hober, Peter Nilsson and My Hedhammar.
• The study is funded by the Stockholm Region, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, the Erling-Persson Family Foundation, the Christian Family and Jennifer Dahlberg and Atlas Copco.For more information, contact Charlotte Thålin (charlotte.thalin@sll.se) or call Danderyds Hospital press call 08-123 562 77.
Danderyds Hospital is one of the country’s largest emergency hospitals. The most important thing for us is that our patients feel safe and secure and receive the best possible care and treatment. We work towards that goal every day – together.
For Bijoux brains ; I have just made all this up as well
The remaining staff had fled amid the outbreak- who amoungst is responsible for spooking them ?
The deaths in Canada were discovered late last week at Résidence Herron, a private home for seniors in Montreal, after the local health authority, alarmed by staff shortages and the spread of coronavirus at the home, took control of the residence.
They found dehydrated residents lying listless in bed, unfed for days, with excrement seeping out of their diapers.
“I’d never seen anything like it in my 32-year nursing career,” said Loredana Mule, a nurse on the team. “It was horrific — there wasn’t enough food to feed people, the stench could’ve killed a horse.”
After she left the home, she said, she collapsed in her car and wept.
A skeleton staff of two nurses had been left to care for a private residence with nearly 150 beds, she said. The remaining staff had fled amid the outbreak of the coronavirus, leaving patients, some paralyzed or with other chronic illnesses, to fend for themselves.
I just made all that up as well, been busy this morning.
Picture taken on the tube in London this morning. The commuters seem more worried about dying from putting on their trousers than from COVID-19 – and the risk may actually be greater, given that London is almost virus-free and eight people died while trying to put on their trousers last year.
Here you actually contradict yourself, the attempting to put on trousers did not kill them, it was whatever happened as a result of them trying to put on their trousers, so by your logic, you cannot really link the trousers to the risk,
on Sweden
After the first survey measured the spread of coronavirus in Stockholm in April, a second survey will determine how many more were infected one month later.
Published May 05, 2020By the first weeks of April, 10 percent of Stockholm’s population had been infected with the coronavirus and developed antibodies, according to sampling collected via post from 1,000 of the city’s residents. KTH researchers now will follow up with a second mailing of 1,000 sample collection kits in order to determine the spread over the last four weeks.
The results provide a snapshot of the spread of infection Stockholm had accumulated by Easter. Of 1,000 anonymous home sampling kits sent, 550 were returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.
The incubation period for COVID-19 ranges from 2 to 14 days following exposure, with most cases showing symptoms approximately 4 to 5 days after exposure. The average sampling day was April 11, says Niclas Roxhed, associate professor at KTH.
<figure class=”block figure” lang=”en-UK” data-cid=”1.981041″><figcaption class=”figure-caption”>Lab engineers Matilda Dale and Annika Bendes work with the sample analysis.</figcaption></figure>The mailings were evenly distributed to men and women, chosen at random, and ranging in age between 20 and 74, from a population of 1.22 million people in 717,850 households.
“We really need the public’s help now,” Roxhed says. “Only with as many contributions as possible can we get a true picture of the spread of infection.
“And this allows us to put into practice a way for everyone who needs to be tested to be able to test themselves.”
Roxhed (KTH) and Olof Beck (Karolinska Institutet) are responsible for sampling and mailing. Analysis of antibodies and proteins is led by Jochen Schwenk and Claudia Fredolini (both from KTH / SciLifeLab). Production of viral proteins is handled by Gerald McInerney, Leo Hanke and Benjamin Murrell (all three from Karolinska Institutet).
it is a bit speculative but going from Swedish death curve as a descriptive model they might be at about 20% now
there was another Swedish serological on heath workers only that had about 20%
I will have to look for it later.
the highest were I think about 70% by PCR in an American prison population ?
So you cite in evidence of your claim unsupported claim that “it is inconceivable that less than 50% of the UK population have not had the virus” a study, which is not complete, but which you you say might show that the infection rate is about 20%. I would be very intersted to know just how this supports your contention, or indeed how a 70% infection rate can be used to correlate to the UK population?
about 20 percent of the employees have antibodies,
There are many indications that one in five employees at Danderyds hospital have had COVID-19. Further analyzes will show how many of these have shown symptoms or been ill. Photo: Cecilia Larsson Lantz
It shows a first reconciliation in the COMMUNITY study that started at Danderyd’s hospital just over a week ago.
– After 527 tests, we can see that about 20 percent of the employees have antibodies, says the doctor and researcher Charlotte Thålin, who runs the study together with professors Sophia Hober, KTH and Peter Nilsson, SciLifeLab.
The study is the first in the world that can provide such safe results.– The idea of the study is not only to determine how many of the employees who have had COVID-19, we also want to be able to determine how long an individual has antibodies and is most likely immune to COVID-19, says Charlotte Thålin.
– It will be exciting to see if antibody formation is related to possible symptoms, and whether there has been more infection in the departments that care for COVID-19 patients.In just over a week, the research groups around the COMMUNITY study have been able to test 527 of Danderyd Hospital’s employees. These have not yet been able to get their individual answers, but the research team is doing everything to make it happen in the near future. At present, only employees at Danderyd’s hospital are tested in the study. But in the future it is entirely possible to test everyone in the population, only there are resources for it.
– We still don’t know for sure whether antibodies mean immunity, but there is much to be said. In that case, people who are told that antibodies have been formed could work without the risk of becoming infected, or of infecting others, which is of great importance not only for health care and other socially beneficial functions, but also for society as a whole, says Charlotte Thålin .
High validation
According to the analyzes made regarding the validation of the test results, the results are almost 100 percent reliable.
– In the validation conducted so far, more than 400 samples with known answers have been analyzed, of which just over 100 have been positive and 300 negative. In all these cases, this method of analysis has given the correct answer, ie 100 percent correct. Since it is important to know more about this, we will continue to analyze known samples and thus further validate the method, says Professor Sophia Hober.The study runs for at least one year
Now the study continues at Danderyds hospital and the hope is that within a few weeks all the staff who want to be included in the study will have tested. Employees fill out a questionnaire where they indicate whether they have had symptoms and where they are at the hospital. After three months there will be a follow-up where you test the same individuals again, whether you have had antibodies or not. Thereafter, several follow-ups continue; after six months, one year and probably even after two and five years.
The study also creates a biobank with plasma samples from inpatient patients with COVID-19. The purpose is, together with other research groups, to investigate possible prognostic markers. These blood tests can also provide important information about possible treatment options.
Brief facts about the study
• Employees go into an app and book times for testing, where the answer is also stated after about 2 weeks. Complete confidentiality is ensured, for example, by the employee signing with his BankID.
• After the first test, follow-up is done after 3, 6 and 12 months, probably even after 2 and 5 years respectively. This is because the study wants to know how long an individual has antibodies. The follow-up is done regardless of whether the individual had initially formed antibodies or not.
• The test method has been developed at SciLifeLab and KTH.
• The research group from Danderyds Hospital includes specialist physician Charlotte Thålin, ST physician Ann-Sofie Rudberg and specialist physician Sebastian Havervall.
• The research group from KTH includes professors Sophia Hober, Peter Nilsson and My Hedhammar.
• The study is funded by the Stockholm Region, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, the Erling-Persson Family Foundation, the Christian Family and Jennifer Dahlberg and Atlas Copco.For more information, contact Charlotte Thålin (charlotte.thalin@sll.se) or call Danderyds Hospital press call 08-123 562 77.
Danderyds Hospital is one of the country’s largest emergency hospitals. The most important thing for us is that our patients feel safe and secure and receive the best possible care and treatment. We work towards that goal every day – together.
Again you use a study in which it found that 20% of staff in a hospital (and a hospital is place where contact and transmission are likely to be higher because of factors such as carrying out personal care, contact with contaminated material, a likelihood of higher number of people carrying out the virus in the hospital) as evidence to support your 50% conjecture. I have never stated that there is wider infection than the official figures show, most of the estimates I have read agree with a possible spread of 5-20%, but I have seen non that state that it is anywhere near 50%
Dave
You then go on to cite a case where staff at a Candian nursing home deserted their jobs and left the residents to die. I agree with you that this was a dreadful situation and that the over reaction of staff to the threat of coronavirus was a causative factor in the deaths of these poor people. However again it provides no evidence that the high level of deaths in “care homes” in the UK has any connection to this kind of behaviour. I have seen no reports of this kind of behaviour at any “carehome” in the UK and certainly no evidence the care provided in UK homes has been a massive factor in the great surge of deaths in care homes.
I think we all recognised that there were serious problems with statistics.
One particular conflict has been Sweden. I think this article reflects the general view.
Macau
You cite Macau as an example of an absence of lockdown. Again this does not seem to support your hypothesis that Covid 19 has a very high transmission rate and that it is not influenced by measures such as lock down or social distancing.
Macau had a small number of cases and they reacted immediately by enacting stringent measures, to quote from the wikipedia article you cite “Stringent government measures have included the 15-day closure of all 81 casinos in the territory in February; in addition, effective 25 March, the territory disallowed connecting flights at it’s airport as well as entry by all non-residents (excepting residents of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan), and from 6 April, the Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macau Bridge was closed to public transport and most other traffic.”
In Macau they reacted very strongly very early on. If your hypothesis that this disease spreads much more quickly than the current estimates, the disease would have spread, dispite the measures taken, however there is no evidence of widespread spread. You can’t be correct about high spread in Sweden and low spread in Macau, I suspect you are wrong about both.
Again from the wikepedia article you cite:
“On 3 February, the government of Macau announced that starting at noon, all bus and taxi passengers were required to wear masks; otherwise the driver would have the right to refuse boarding. Starting at 13:00, all light rail passengers were required to wear a mask; otherwise the driver would have the right to refuse boarding.
On 4 February 2020, all casinos in Macau were ordered to shut down for 15 days. The following facilities were also required to close: cinemas, theatres, indoor amusement parks, arcades, internet cafes, pool halls, bowling alleys, steam baths, massage parlours, beauty salons, gyms, health clubs, bars, karaoke bars, nightclubs, discos, and dance clubs.
On 7 February, the government of Macau announced that government workers were to stay home from the 8th to the 16th, except for emergency services”
Hardly a laissez- attitude faire.
Similarly in Japan they reacted very quickly, however the government there have come under criticism for stoppiing these measures too early.
In either case the comparison with the progress of the disease cannot really be made with the UK situation. In both of these cases the government acted quickly to try and stop community transmission (in which it seems they were fairly effective). In the UK the government let the Cheltenham festival go ahead, let the Liverpool v Atletico Madrid match go ahead and only cancelled sporting events after pressure from the sports themselves. By the time this had all gone ahead and community transmission was well established, they held the white flag up and the head cases started talking about herd immunity, only to change tack again and lock the stable door when the horse was half way to Ascot. Hardly comparable situations.
What about Singapore!
third highest population density
Deaths per million = 4
Compared to New York’s 1000
Deaths per case = 0.08%!!!!!!!!!!!!
28,000 cases
There are some places around this world where peoples are accustomed to following medical protocols, and they place more faith and trust in medical doctors and their knowledge and training than in politicians and conspiracists theories, they have certain respect toward academic knowledge. Many peoples are getting sick because they are not following medical instructions and they want to do whatever they want and are believing in the stupidity that they are free. In the capitalist world, we are slaves
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