Coronavirus
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Of course the 4,500 young fit crew of a nuclear powered Aircraft carrier are a very close fit to the demographics of the UK. There must be lots and lots of over 60 year olds on that ship.
You have misleadingly used the “data” to make a comparison with the general population of the UK. On that data the death rate would be 1/4500. This would mean that based on a UK population of about 66.5 million there would be about 14,700 fatalities.
Although this figure fits in with your previous prediction that deaths would be under 15,000, it doesn’t seem to fit in with the lived reality. I did say at the time of your prediction, that if the number of fatalities stayed below 20,000 I would show my fat hairy arse in HO window at the next conference. I would rather that I had to do that than be right in my prediction, sadly that is not the case.
A far better comparison would be using the data from the Daimond Princess, which, although not matching the UK demographic by any means, would be a hell of a lot closer than the USS Theodore Roosevelt.
On the Diamond Princess, Of the 3,711 people aboard 1,045 were crew and 2,666 were passengers.
The median age of the crew was 36 while the median age of the passengers was 69.
I have not been able to find a source that gives the mean age, or the mode which might have added a little more to the data.
The passengers were 55% female and the crew was 81% male.
<sup id=”cite_ref-CDCCrew_64-2″ class=”reference”></sup>Of the 712 infections, 145 occurred in crew and 567 occurred in passengers.
Of the 14 fatalities, all were from the passenger group.
That gives a fatality rate for the total ship’s crew and passengers of 0.377%.
Assuming that the infection rate of about 20% was the same for the UK population, then that fatality rate of 0.377% would lead to about 250,000 deaths.
Some of your earlier posts made comparison to the seasonal flu statistics, surely you cannot still be holding that position?
The reformists with all their revolutionary and radical rhetoric emerge for post-pandemic “change”.
They never say that the real pandemic is capitalism, they just want to reform capitalism
“Human health and the care of the most vulnerable cannot be governed by market forces alone. If we leave these things solely to the market, we run the risk of exacerbating inequalities to the point of forfeiting the very lives of the least advantaged.”
The implication being that we need market forces plus something else, and the market, plus something else.
It boils my piss when these fuckwits pontificate about the way forward, yet they haven’t got the imagination to see beyond trying to pleasantly rearraging the prison we all live in, so we can have a nice humane prison.
There are a bunch of idiots who want the care system to be run by big corporations, and now everybody is paying the consequences
I used both your comments, Marcos and Bijou for this.
https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/140720064
I should have edited it for the typos. (Sigh)
There has been about 18 serological, non PCR , investigations.
The following one is interesting as you could think the Iran has passed through it and is at the end game and it is in English
Abstract
Background: The extent of infection by coronavirus disease 2019 has not been well documented. In this study we aimed to determine seropositivity of COVID-19 virus infection in population of a highly affected area in north of Iran. Methods: In a population-based cluster random sampling design through phone call invitation, a total of 196 household including 552 subjects agreed to participate in this study. Each participant were taken 50ml blood sample at health care center. Rapid test kits were used to detect antibody against COVID-19. Crude, population-weight adjusted and test performance adjusted prevalence of antibody seropositivity to SARS-CoV-2 were reported. Results: The prevalence of antibody seropositivity was 0.22 (95%CI: 0.19-0.26). The population weight adjusted estimate was 0.21 (95%CI: 0.14-0.29) and test performance adjusted prevalence was 0.33 (95%CI: 0.28-0.39). Based on these estimates the range of infected people in this province would be between 518000 and 777000. Conclusion: The population seropositivity prevalence of COVID-19 virus infection indicated that the asymptomatic infection is much higher than the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. This estimate can be used to better detect infection fatality rate and decide for public policy guidelines.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079244v1
the population of this province is about 2.5 million
There has been about 18 serological, non PCR , investigations.
The following one is interesting as you could think the Iran has passed through it and is at the end game and it is in English
Abstract
Background: The extent of infection by coronavirus disease 2019 has not been well documented. In this study we aimed to determine seropositivity of COVID-19 virus infection in population of a highly affected area in north of Iran. Methods: In a population-based cluster random sampling design through phone call invitation, a total of 196 household including 552 subjects agreed to participate in this study. Each participant were taken 50ml blood sample at health care center. Rapid test kits were used to detect antibody against COVID-19. Crude, population-weight adjusted and test performance adjusted prevalence of antibody seropositivity to SARS-CoV-2 were reported. Results: The prevalence of antibody seropositivity was 0.22 (95%CI: 0.19-0.26). The population weight adjusted estimate was 0.21 (95%CI: 0.14-0.29) and test performance adjusted prevalence was 0.33 (95%CI: 0.28-0.39). Based on these estimates the range of infected people in this province would be between 518000 and 777000. Conclusion: The population seropositivity prevalence of COVID-19 virus infection indicated that the asymptomatic infection is much higher than the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. This estimate can be used to better detect infection fatality rate and decide for public policy guidelines.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079244v1
the population of this province is about 2.5 million
so we are talking 20-30% again.
I do this kind of thing as part of my job as an investigative analytical chemist.
trawling through scientific literature.
I have a Grade A in A’ level statistics as well.
The post that I sent was not supposed to be about death rates.
I was going to take that dead thing out as I had a feeling that that would distract from the main point.
It was supposed to be about how many people may have had it in the UK ; and the death rate and lockdown discussion follows that.
But I will let that be derailed for the moment.
Princess Diamond
No crew died and not all the ages of the passengers who died is known but the youngest was in their 60’s and most were over 70.
It is well known from people like Prof John Ioannidis, who did a detailed analysis of that Princes Diamond case, that influenza and colds can rip through old peoples homes and kill over 10% of them.
Probably not in this article I can find it if you really want.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v2
Diamond princes was like a floating old peoples home
….Of the 3,711 people aboard Diamond Princess, 1,045 were crew and 2,666 were passengers.The median age of the crew was 36 while the median age of the passengers was 69. The passengers were 55% female and the crew was 81% male. Of the 712 infections, 145 occurred in crew and 567 occurred in passengers…<sup>..</sup>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_cruise_ships
There is another case below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Charles_de_Gaulle
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To reiterate I do not believe that all those dying with covid have died from it.
An example of a factual case would be that the Italians reviewed or sampled a set of died with covid cases/ death certificates and decided that in fact only 13% of them could be reliably diagnosed of dying from Covid.
This was supposed to be about Lockdown and the amount of people that could be killing, will kill over the next year or so and the general misery for the working class around the world that is now too late to stop.
Data is already suggesting that about 30% of excess deaths in the UK are non covid deaths.
There is supposed to be a delayed report or analysis on that from ONS.
Although it is not hard to figure out; the hospitals have been emptied of really sick people to make way for a covid rush that never came. They are still half empty.
Many of those people have died for lack of proper medical supervision and stress in old peoples home.
EG
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/05/14/625355/UK-care-home-residents-fading-away
please do not use extraneous material in that as another opportunity to go off on another tangent. It is just something I just read.
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Given what is known to have happened on those two aircraft carriers as well documented examples it is inconceivable that that the majority of people in the UK has not already had it.
Making Lockdown a waste of time.
People are assuming that lockdown is a tried and trusted method with a proven track record for this kind of thing; it hasn’t .
there is good cleaned up data an analysis on the UK at this site.
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My viewpoint at the moment is that people are probably not dying of covid at all but probably from something else maybe an influenza or another cold type virus.
People mistakenly think when you have a respiratory illnesses you have one infection from one virus, [fungi, bacteria or yeast ].
In the real world you get an infection which degrades the respiratory pathways and that is followed by a host of other microbes.
If covid 19 is a secondary opportunistic infection testing for it as an affect is going to miss the cause and more importantly, if applied on a mass scale, is to generate some bizarre data if the hypothesis is that covid 19 is a primary causative infection .
[Covid 19 as contributing factor is relevant as in deceases you can synergistic effects.]
In pandemics you do not usually have per million capita death rates varying from 600 to below 10.
It doesn’t flare up in one city and then die out without affecting the billions in the rest of the country and then move to the other side of the world and create alleged havoc there.
There are other issues evolving now about whether some treatment regimes eg hydroxyquinoline are actually killing people and sub groups, a proportion of whom can react badly to it.
Eg BAME people who appear to be dying in higher numbers than others.
EG AGAIN
As well as unnecessary intubation of patients which is a desperate high risk strategy.
As I know only too well.
A third batch of links covering nearly every conceivable aspect of the coronavirus pandemic which peeps here can use for research purposes , writing articles etc
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/05/13/whos-in-a-catch-22/
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/coronavirus-pandemic-who-covid19-years-vaccine-a4439981.html
https://eand.co/the-american-economy-is-imploding-and-america-is-too-e998d3cfb1d9
https://areomagazine.com/2020/05/11/boris-johnson-and-the-language-of-lockdown/
https://gen.medium.com/the-harsh-future-of-american-cities-7263da52fd1f
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/05/07/two-truths-from-the-pandemic-no-one-is-mentioning/
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/05/07/covid-19-and-the-high-cost-of-dying/
https://gen.medium.com/the-harsh-future-of-american-cities-7263da52fd1f
https://www.democracynow.org/2020/5/14/on_south_dakotas_sioux_reservations_check
Alan
This is what I was talking about
It is being reported that the bosses of the profit-seeking businesses that run “academies” as schools that not under local government control are more eager to open them than those still run by local councils. Revealing confirmation of the pressure market forces exert to put profits before health.
Dave
I won’t go through all of what you have written, but a few examples will suffice to make my point.
To reiterate I do not believe that all those dying with covid have died from it.
Nice that you have a belief, the Christians and Muslims and other religious nutcases base their views on belief, what would be nice is some proof.
An example of a factual case would be that the Italians reviewed or sampled a set of died with covid cases/ death certificates and decided that in fact only 13% of them could be reliably diagnosed of dying from Covid.
Where is this study? I have looked on line and cannot find it.
This was supposed to be about Lockdown and the amount of people that could be killing, will kill over the next year or so and the general misery for the working class around the world that is now too late to stop.
Data is already suggesting that about 30% of excess deaths in the UK are non covid deaths.
Again where is the report, also how does that link to lockdown in terms of causality
Many of those people have died for lack of proper medical supervision and stress in old peoples home.
Again massive assumptions. What kind of old people’s homes are you talking about? Are you talking about residential care homes which provide social care or nursing homes that provide both social and nursing care, or did you not know there is a difference?
EG
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/05/14/625355/UK-care-home-residents-fading-away
please do not use extraneous material in that as another opportunity to go off on another tangent. It is just something I just read.
If you don’t want people to comment on it, why put it in? So despite your plea not to analyse the evidence you are using to support your case, I will analyse it. the report states that:
“The virus won’t be the killer of these people, it’s the distress and fear of not seeing family that is doing it,” said one carer who asked to remain anonymous
So your entire case that care home residents are not dying of coronavirus is based on one report by one carer, as reported on the highly pro Iranian presstv.
As a demonstration of the accuracy of that report I quote the following statistic from it:
The homes have tried to keep residents in contact with their loved ones through the telephone or online. However, 80% of care home residents have dementia, preventing many from using technology.
Anyone who has any bacground or knowledge in this aea will know that that statistic is absolute nonsense. I could write at length about the “care” arrangements for older peope in this country and the inadequacy of that, but that is an altogether different topic, however the term Care Home is a catch all term which the press have used very inexactly to describe several different settings. These include:
- Sheltered accomodation, which is accomodation open generally to those over the age of 55 that have commununal spaces and gernerally have a trained warden ont he premises,
- Residential care- this is care provided to meet social care needs, funded by local authorities, if you have less than a certain amount of assets, but not ususally provided by local authorities. IN these settings staff are trained to meet social care needs not nursing or medical care needs
- Nursing homes – where people with medical needs are cared for, although many of the residents of these homes have dementia many do not and have other physical and nursing needs. These are usually funded through the health service as continuing health care needs.
- Physical disabilies residential homes – homes for adults, usually under 65 who have physical disabilites which require them to have full time support and care (there are a very small number of registered nursing homes that deal with physical disabilites for younger people)
- Learning disabilites residential homes – where people who have learning disabilies and require full time support and car.
- Mental Health residential homes – where people with enduring mental health conditions, who require full time support and care are cared for.
- Hospices – where people who are reaching end of life for various reasons are nursed to their deaths.
So as you can see the situation is a lot more complex than just “care homes” no where near 80% of residents of “care homes” have dementia and to state without any evidence to support it that “Many of those people have died for lack of proper medical supervision and stress in old peoples home.” really about sums up what you are saying, it is ill informed and based on supposition. But let’s plough on any way.
Given what is known to have happened on those two aircraft carriers as well documented examples it is inconceivable that that the majority of people in the UK has not already had it.
Making Lockdown a waste of time.
Even the statistics that you provide for the USS Theodore Roosevelt show this to be unlikely to be the case, the statistics for the aircraft carrier infections were as follows:
As of 20 April, 4,069 sailors had been moved off the ship, out of the total crew of 4,500. Some 94% of the crew had been tested or the virus, yielding 678 positive and 3,904 negative results.
So if a majority on the USS Theodore Roosevelt were not infected, how can it be in your words be “inconceivable to think that the majority of people in the UK have not already had it”?
People are assuming that lockdown is a tried and trusted method with a proven track record for this kind of thing; it hasn’t .
Again more supposition, which people and which assumption, my anecdotal evidence is that most of the people I know do not believe this is a tried and trusted method, just the best we have at the moment. However the general principle of quarantine for infectious diseases is, I would argue, a tried and tested method which has some degree of success stretching back millenia.
there is good cleaned up data an analysis on the UK at this site.
Yes, I agree it is a very good clean up of the stats, although I cannot see how any of the cleaned up stats they provide support any of the arguments you have made.
My viewpoint at the moment is that people are probably not dying of covid at all but probably from something else maybe an influenza or another cold type virus.
So we are back to the old chestnut that it is all caused by the flu, but this time it is a mysterious one known only to you.
People mistakenly think when you have a respiratory illnesses you have one infection from one virus, [fungi, bacteria or yeast ].
This may be the case for “people” who ever that refers to, but it is not the view taken by those who work in medicine, so the fact that the general public, may have a mistaken view of the nature of infection is neither here nor there.
In the real world you get an infection which degrades the respiratory pathways and that is followed by a host of other microbes.
If covid 19 is a secondary opportunistic infection testing for it as an affect is going to miss the cause and more importantly, if applied on a mass scale, is to generate some bizarre data if the hypothesis is that covid 19 is a primary causative infection .
So you are saying, if the virus is a secondary cause. However there is no evidence to suppport this whatsoever, most people who die of cancer don’t actually “die” of the cancer but from infections that come in the end stages of cancers, that doesn’t mean that getting cancer is fine and we shouldn’t worry. The overwhelming evidence is that there are a very high number of deaths over and above the expected deaths for this time of year in many different countries and a great number of these have been infected with Covid 19 and additionally these deaths have shown a unique set of symptoms, suggests extrememly strongly that Covid 19 is the primary infection which allows other infections to get a hold. In the absence of your mystery cold and flu (a disease so far unknown and undetected by medical science), can you provide any other explanation for these events and statistics.
[Covid 19 as contributing factor is relevant as in deceases you can synergistic effects.]
I hve no idea what this is supposed to mean so I cannot comment.
In pandemics you do not usually have per million capita death rates varying from 600 to below 10.
Actually yes you do. I studied epidemiology and statistics at degree level, and studied in depth the global pandemic of bubonic and pneumonic plague and for instance in Great Britain, the plague was very area specific, with some places, for instance at one time London, massively infected, whilst at the same time Ireland and Scotland were practically untouched by it. Similarly it was only when pheumonic plague overtook the original bubonic plague (Yersinia Pestis) did large scale infection in Scandinavia take place.
It doesn’t flare up in one city and then die out without affecting the billions in the rest of the country and then move to the other side of the world and create alleged havoc there.
But actually that is what did happen in previous pandemics, look at the history of the Spanish flu infection for one instance and going back to what I said about bubonic plague, Venice was ravaged by it, whereas nearby Corcula was hardly touched during the height of the Venice plague. The issue here is transmission. In previous pandemics transmission was generally quite slow and location specific being transported by road and sea travel. In the epoch of air travel, it appears that the greater amount of tranmission has been through air travel and the pattern of infection which has emerged is one which fits in very neatly with such a transmission process.
There are other issues evolving now about whether some treatment regimes eg hydroxyquinoline are actually killing people and sub groups, a proportion of whom can react badly to it.
Johns Hopkins University reports that there have been global deaths in the region of 320,000 people, the proportion of those who died as a result of a bad reaction to a drug that hasn’t been used in any great numbers is likely to be miniscule. However if they HAVE been giving patients hydroxyquinoline which I believe can be used as a pesticide, I would be very surprised as the drug that is being tested out is hydrochlorquinine
Eg BAME people who appear to be dying in higher numbers than others.
EG AGAIN
The you go on and with this link you appear to contradict all that has been said before, i.e. that Covid 19 is not really that harmful and that the response is overblown, by quoting a link that states that there is a very serious risk for BAME people.
I could be very unkind and say that your viewpoint is that it only effects the elderly and the BAME population, so as I am neither why should I be bothered. I am sure that is not your position, however it is difficult to say what that viewpoint is.
It is no more practical to quarantine older people or people in care homes than it is to segregate people from BAME backgrounds
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As well as unnecessary intubation of patients which is a desperate high risk strategy.
As I know only too well.
Again I know from previous postings that you have expereinced being supported by a ventilator, I had personal experience of this myself when my mother was twice placed on a ventilator and also had to use other types of positive pressure devices. It is a horrendous experience and I am deeply sympathetic to you, however from my experience, entubation is not something which is done without consideration and it is a high risk strategy. Surely the fact that you are here to tell the tale and that my mother lived on for another 8 years is a demonstration that that high risk strategy often pays off.
Dave, was there one in Manchester?
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