Coronavirus
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As far as I understand it ONS are already saying 2020 deaths are at 20 year high, and this is still the beginning of it
no that is not true either
so far this year it is still slightly below 2018 I think
week 1 to week 15 for both
it was very high weekly total for a week in april ; that is probably what is meant.
Week 1-15 2020 = 184,960
Week 1-15 2018 = 187, 780
I think there is a post with links still waiting?
it was very high weekly total for a week in april ; that is probably what is meant
Yes that’s what the article says; “The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April – about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year.” – So not insignificant.
Also aren’t the figures adjusted in retrospect, as the data comes through? It can take weeks for the full data to get through. So the figures for recent weeks will be incomplete.
Seems weird to want to deny that something unusual is going on…
It is sometimes argued that the mortality rate of the virus is overestimated because of the number of asymptomatics or individuals presenting mild symptoms who are not aware they have the virus. I read somewhere that the real number of people with the virus may be at least double the number of confirmed cases. Perhaps someone with more up to date information can post a link on this.
However the flipside of the coin is that the real number of deaths from the virus – be it a primary or contributory cause – may be underestimated. In the UK for example only hospital deaths are officially counted but the actual death toll may be at least double this…
lies, lies and more lies
Denmark , finalnd and Norway have populations half that of Sweden
in a interview in English
Why lockdowns are the wrong policy – Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke
it was explained why Norway was doing better than Sweden.
they have much smaller care homes for the elderly due I think to the much more scattered and lower density of population
Sweden had problem
with mass outbreaks in care homeThe health agency believed that 5-10% of the population in Stockholm County were carrying the virus on 9 April.<sup id=”cite_ref-mellan5och10_37-0″ class=”reference”>[35]</sup> In mid-April, it was reported that out of the approximately 1300 people who had died after having caught the virus, one third had been living at nursing homes. The figure differed between the regions. In Stockholm, the city most affected by the pandemic, half of the deaths had been residents in one of its many nursing homes.<sup id=”cite_ref-tredjedel_38-0″ class=”reference”>[36]</sup> The Health Agency saw the spread at the homes as their biggest concern as of then, but “not as a failure of our overall strategy, but as a failure of our way to protect the elderly”.<sup id=”cite_ref-39″ class=”reference”>[37]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-40″ class=”reference”>[38]</sup>. The situation led to the Health and Social Care Inspectorate to begin carrying out controls at the homes.<sup id=”cite_ref-tredjedel_38-1″ class=”reference”>[36]</sup>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/
comparable to seasonal Flu?
https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/16/watch-perspectives-on-the-pandemic-3/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7v2F3usNVA
Note these highly reputable scientist are calm , excuse the bad science of others, give an opinion on the Swedish option, comparisons to seasonal flu, talk about the herd immunity, unnecessary panic ; clearly care a lot about the disadvantaged and ill and are plainly not fascist Malthusians.
Week 1-15 2020 = 184,960
Week 1-15 2018 = 187, 780
What you’re not taking account of is that the 1st Covid 19 death, was not until week 10 and since then there has been over 18,000 Covid linked deaths in hospital. As has been mentioned earlier in this thread, This does not include deaths in nursing and residential homes. The figures in the Republic of Ireland include nursing and residential homes the figures there are 769 deaths, but 348 of those deaths occurred in nursing and residential homes. Even if the rates in the UK are half of those in Ireland, that suggests another 25% on top of the UK figure of 18,000 which takes it up to 22,500 deaths, which puts it in the same league as the higher estimates of the ANNUAL number of flu deaths, in just 8 weeks.
At week 15 the claimed Covid death toll was approximately 4,000. Even if we add another 2,000 to that it still means there were another roughly 16,000 further deaths between week 15 and today. that is with a full scale lockdown in place. As I said earlier, and the data backs me up, a comparison between Covid 19 and Flu is completely puerile.
But hey, if you think the risk is minimal, get your self out there comrade.
We are gonna have to change the way we farm
Since people are talking about Sweden here’s some info on the pandemic there
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Also, this might be relevant
And there is no comparison with flu
”
That is no reason for optimism, as the authors of the study in The Lancet note. The researchers offer an overall CFR for Covid-19 at 1.38 percent, which reflects their estimates for lack of testing and other factors, including potential censorship. This number, they noted, is still “substantially higher than for recent influenza pandemics (e.g. H1N1 influenza in 2009)” — “swine flu” — which had a case fatality rate of 0.1 percent. Their estimated CFR, “combined with likely infection attack rates (around 50-80 percent), show
that even the most advanced health-care systems are likely to become overwhelmed.” It is clear that this is far worse than the seasonal flu.”This is what the ONS said recently ; you can pick your own argument out of that.
…..When looking at the change in total deaths registered by place of occurrence between Week 11 (when the first COVID-19 deaths were registered) and Week 15, we see that the number of deaths in care homes has doubled from 2,471 deaths to 4,927 (99.4%). There has also been a 72.4% increase (4,975 deaths to 8,578) in deaths occurring in hospitals, and 51.1% increase in deaths occurring in private homes (2,725 deaths to 4,117).
When looking in more detail at the large increase in care home deaths we can see that in Week 11, care home deaths made up 22.4% of all deaths, which has risen to 26.6% of all deaths in Week 15. In Week 15, 16.8% (826 deaths) of all deaths occurring in care homes involved COVID-19. This is lower than the 57.8% of hospital deaths (4,957) that involved COVID-19, but higher than the 8.0% (330 deaths) that occurred in private homes……
You are going to find yourself between a rock and a hard place if you going to start ramping up and finding fake covid deaths all over the place.
As it will just make the swedish experiment look more and more successful.
I am absolutely sure there is going to be a second wave of lockdown deaths that will of course be immediately attributed to undiagnosed covid deaths.
The truth will only come out a lot later.
There was talk recently in a financial times article of a government denied number of 150,000,
Anyway there is this as food for death.
….Prof Dening said there could be a number of reasons for what appears to be a sharp increase in deaths in the community that are not known to be due to Covid-19.
He explained: “These include people not feeling able to attend their GP surgeries, call an ambulance or attend A&E as they may have done in the past.
“Therefore, some serious conditions may present too late for effective treatment.
“Concern has been expressed by doctors working in children’s emergency care that they are not currently seeing the usual range of childhood emergencies.”
Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, said some people have not been able to get appointments, or are told to arrange a virtual GP appointment and think “I am not going to bother”.
– What are people with potentially fatal conditions doing?
Prof Dening said: “Another possibility is that some people with serious conditions, like cancer or chronic kidney disease, are either unable or unwilling to attend hospital on the usual regular basis, so their treatment regimes may lapse.
“Managing conditions like unstable diabetes will be much harder remotely than with face-to-face attention.
“Or there may be people who would have been referred to specialists for assessment of potentially serious conditions, where there is now a delay in offering appointments or indeed clinics may simply have been cancelled.”
Prof Bauld explained that some people may have had a procedure that they need delayed, resulting in unintended consequences.
Concern has been expressed by doctors working in children’s emergency care that they are not currently seeing the usual range of childhood emergencies
Professor Tom Dening
– Could the lockdown lifestyle itself be harming health?
Prof Dening said the lockdown itself may be breeding unhealthy behaviour.
He told PA: “Some people confined to their homes are likely to be drinking and smoking more, or eating less healthily, and this may also contribute to health problems, including accidents, around the home.”
– What do the numbers say about the deaths?
Of the 16,387 deaths registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April, around a fifth (3,475) mentioned “novel coronavirus”.
But the ONS said there were 6,082 more deaths during that week compared to the five-year average, which raises questions about the reasons behind the remaining two and a half thousand additional deaths.
Professor Maureen Baker, former Chair of the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP), said there could be a number of explanations.
“Data from previous pandemics of the 20th century have shown that health pandemics tend to lead to a rise in all-cause mortality,” she added.
“There could be greater difficulty for people with non-Covid symptoms to currently get access to hospital services, or not wanting to access them due to the Covid risk.
“It might be the case that people with emergency symptoms – for instance, chest pain, abdominal pain, severe headache – are not consulting a doctor as early as they normally would with such symptoms.”
I am out and about as I am a critical worker.
I am trying to keep this no personal and polite.
But the population density in Sweden is nothing like that in the UK, Spain, Italy etc. I found this map which shows the population density *of urban areas* (there’s not really much point averaging the land mass against population numbers, we want to know how densly populated the areas are where people actually live). By looking at it seems to map onto Covid19 hotspots quite well.
It’s from this webpage:
https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/these-maps-reveal-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-3625There’s no point comparing apples and oranges…
If they don’t find an effective vaccine the only way to overcome it will be the herd becoming immune, which implies that many will die. It would just be a question of when: sooner or later ?
It seems that the government’s policy here is in effect to try to delay the spread until a vaccine is found. That way less people can be expected to die.
The Swedish government (and the government here originally) seems to be taking the view that you might as well get the deaths that will occur to get herd immunity over sooner rather than later.
That Swedish professor says that only the frail and elderly should be protected from catching it. Fair enough but the implication is that those of working age should not be protected. Maybe for some the effects of catching it will be relatively mild but clearly not for everyone. Some will die. Already there is talk based on some evidence that the age limit for the those more vulnerable should be reduced from 70 to 65 even 60.
Anyway in Sweden unless you area elderly or frail, it’s “may the most resistant survive”. Hard luck if you are not and don’t. It might work I suppose but.
85 % of Swedish population live in urban areas.
Norway is different I believe
still Stockholme is not as densely populated as London etc
Sweden is probably closer to Scotland in that respect and in fact I think there profile are quite similar although I have not closely looked at them.
So Scotland had a lockdown that made no difference then ?
low population density is like geographical lockdown and flattening of the curve.
and stretching it out
but that clearly hasn’t happened in Sweden
they have started peaked and started crashing down several days ago.
it looks like this covid has a very high R0 ,
Ie it spreads a lot quicker than anybody previously thought and there was more of it about earlier on than anybody thought.
the imperial team conceded this.
theory used to be that that means it was too late for lockdown to work anyway.
they should have locked all the vulnerable away and had measles parties for the under 60’s with no underlying medical conditions.
“they should have locked all the vulnerable away and had measles parties for the under 60’s with no underlying medical conditions.”
I was going to suggest that that was the logic of the Swedish professor’s position but thought that might be going too far. But, now you have raised it, why don’t you set out to deliberately catch it. That would be a noble contribution — perhaps even sacrifice — to help achieve herd immunity.
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