Coronavirus
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So, assuming all other countries had strong shelter in place rules, note that there are at least 6 countries in Europe that have a higher COVID-19 mortality per capita than Sweden, even though they have shelter in place.
I note that a lot of Ancaps on the Ancap versus Ancom FB forum i am on have cited Sweden as an example of how to deal with the virus because it involves a less heavy handed approach by the state. Unfortunately, the figures now coming through show that this approach may not be working:
“Alarming data has shown Sweden’s approach to containing coronavirus has led to a far greater number of fatalities than their Nordic neighbours.As a result of the spiralling numbers, the country’s prime minister, Stefan Lofven, has received criticism for his government’s light-touch strategy to contain Covid-19.”
That was stuck in a ‘pending’ file Robin. If you don’t see a post right away use the ‘Contact Forum admin‘ on the Forum menu, as I am always busy elsewhere and won’t notice posts which have been held up.
Yes it does seem that Sweden’s chief epidemiologist may be a bit of a Mad Professor carrying out an experiment on people. According to yesterday’s Times:
”Dr Tegnell suggested last week that Stockholm could achieve herd immunity, where a large enough majority of the population have recovered from the disease that the virus has little room to spread, within weeks. Most scientists estimate that this requires at least 60 per cent of people to become infected.”
That’s a lot of people and of course the more people are infected the more will die. Anyway. is the population of Stockholm large enough or isolated enough to constitute a herd?
We will see. The difference between scenarios about the pandemic and those about climate change is that for the pandemic we don’t have to wait until 2100 to see how accurate or inaccurate they are. We can known within weeks. So, we will be able to see fairly soon whether Dr Tegnell is a mad professor or not.
Actually, Sweden has a track record in allowing mad professors free rein:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/sweden-admits-to-racial-purification-1247261.html%3famp
Come to think of it, consciously pursuing a policy of herd immunity can be seen as a form of eugenics, the survival of the fittest and the elimination of the weakest.
Why are you falsifying data?
The per million with covid death rate for Sweden is 174
And it has peaked and is descending for Sweden rapidly
It is about 17000/66.7 = 255 for the UK
the following ranking table is afew days old;
<td width=”23%”>
<td width=”20%”>Deaths
<td width=”24%”>population
<td width=”32%”>Deaths per million
<td width=”23%”>Belgium
<td width=”20%”>5,453
<td width=”24%”>11.42
<td width=”32%”>477.41
<td width=”23%”>Spain
<td width=”20%”>20,639
<td width=”24%”>46.72
<td width=”32%”>441.72
<td width=”23%”>Italy
<td width=”20%”>23,227
<td width=”24%”>60.43
<td width=”32%”>384.35
<td width=”23%”>France
<td width=”20%”>19,323
<td width=”24%”>66.99
<td width=”32%”>288.46
<td width=”23%”>United Kingdom
<td width=”20%”>15,498
<td width=”24%”>66.49
<td width=”32%”>233.09
<td width=”23%”>Netherlands
<td width=”20%”>3,601
<td width=”24%”>17.23
<td width=”32%”>208.98
<td width=”23%”>Switzerland
<td width=”20%”>1,368
<td width=”24%”>8.52
<td width=”32%”>160.63
<td width=”23%”>Sweden
<td width=”20%”>1,511
<td width=”24%”>10.18
<td width=”32%”>148.38
<td width=”23%”>United States
<td width=”20%”>39,025
<td width=”24%”>327.17
<td width=”32%”>119.28
<td width=”23%”>Ireland
<td width=”20%”>571
<td width=”24%”>4.85
<td width=”32%”>117.65
<td width=”23%”>Portugal
<td width=”20%”>687
<td width=”24%”>10.28
<td width=”32%”>66.82
<td width=”23%”>Iran
<td width=”20%”>5,031
<td width=”24%”>81.8
<td width=”32%”>61.5
<td width=”23%”>Denmark
<td width=”20%”>346
<td width=”24%”>5.8
<td width=”32%”>59.68
Sacrificing the health of the old for the well-being of the young?
Each nation’s demographic make-up is different and the spread of COVID-19 will be differently centred on a variety of hot-spots. Sweden is not the same make-up in age as Italy.
Even within a country it is not all the same. I’m not in lockdown where I live but some cities here are.
Horses for courses
But what is being noticed in the herd immunity theory, is the rate of antibodies that offers resistance to future infection is rather low. The science is still out on re-infection rates if (when) another wave of COVID-19.
https://www.wspus.org/2020/04/a-cure-for-covid-19-a-profit-making-strategy/
A cure for COVID 19, a profit-making strategy
It seems as if Sweden is the main focus of differing approaches.
“…we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC. Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”
Why the high number of deaths?
“Unfortunately the mortality rate is high due to the introduction (of the virus) in elderly care homes ”
Sweden has recorded 1,765 deaths, however, and that number is far higher than its neighbors that imposed far stricter lockdowns. The number of cases in Sweden is almost double that seen in neighboring Denmark (it has 8,108 cases and has reported 370 deaths) and Finland (with just over 4,000 cases and 141 deaths) that imposed strict lockdown measures.
https://www.ft.com/content/79eaad5d-73d0-4b1f-b02c-adf1fd8e8868
Only about 6 per cent of the French population will have been infected with coronavirus when the country’s lockdown is relaxed next month, a scientific report has concluded…the report by Institut Pasteur, France’s leading biomedical research body, Public Health France and the country’s national scientific research centre concluded that the predicted infection rate was “very much below the level needed to avoid a second wave if all control measures were to be lifted”…. the French report continued: “The collective immunity level required is currently estimated to be 70 per cent. Therefore, major efforts will need to be maintained beyond May 11 to avoid a resurgence of the epidemic.”
Estimates from other hard-hit countries are of the same order as those in France. Researchers at Imperial College London estimated this month that 1.2 per cent to 5.4 per cent of the UK population may have been infected by March 28. In Los Angeles, 2.8 per cent to 5.6 per cent of adults were estimated to have coronavirus antibodies, according to preliminary results from the University of Southern California and the LA County Department of Public Health.
In contrast
The statistical model used by Sweden’s public health agency suggested that as many as a third of people in Stockholm will have been infected with the virus by May 1. Swedish health officials said the same model estimated that for every one confirmed case, there were 99 unconfirmed ones. In total, about 600,000 people in Stockholm would have had the virus by next week, according to the model which was based on infections up to April 10.
Anders Wallensten, Sweden’s deputy state epidemiologist, said France’s much lower infection rate could be due to a different way of measuring.
So who is right, Sweden has many clever health experts, as do other countries who disagree with the course Sweden has taken.
I would be curious to know what other nations have followed Sweden’s example and what has been the result for them. I imagine a lot of undeveloped countries have not imposed lockdowns, but problem is they aren’t known for their accuracy in facts and figures.
What we do know is that when lockdowns are imposed, the State has to step very strongly in to provide social security. If not, then I think I agree with Trump – the cure is worse than the illness. The outcome in many places has been civil unrest and the application of force by the State.
The pandemic is not an exact science as yet and there will be a whole new industry of scholarly academics studying the pandemic with better access to more accurate statistics
There is a real problem with statistics. The UK government are working on an estimate of an additional 10% deaths in the community and care homes on top of the hospital deaths. However the figures for Ireland, which is counting deaths in care homes and in the community, show a split of 2/3rds in hospital, 1/3rd in the community. If the Irish figures are correct this would raise the UK deaths by another 50%. There are also reports however that in Sweden, Doctors are being discouraged from putting Covid-19 down as a cause of death, if there are underlying conditions. The conclusion is that we will not be able to do a full analysis until much later on.
What seems to be a clear pattern is, that those countries that locked down hard and early seem to be doing best, Denmark, Germany, South Korea, Ireland, New Zealand. Whether that is a long term benefit remains to be seen.
However to compare the Covid-19 deaths to a full season of flu deaths is puerile. The first Covid-19 death was only a little over 6 weeks ago, yet the figures for total hospital deaths are already at the same level as a full Flu season, if you put a rough estimation of community deaths in there, they are probably higher than a normal flu season, in only 6 weeks. Those figures are only going to get higher and higher in the coming weeks and months.
You only have to look at the number of medical workers dying from it to know that this is not comparable to seasonal flu.
One positive thing to come out of this, though. Little Mix and Westlife have cancelled their proposed national tours.
reports?????
or data
Sweden has a much higher testing rate than the UK , you would expect them to have more reliable data
Sweden Latest estimate: 9.35 per thousand people; 94,600 in total (as of 19 April 2020).
Latest estimate: 5.91 per thousand people; 397,670 in total (as of 21 April 2020).
However to compare the Covid-19 deaths to a full season of flu deaths is puerile.
Here, Here. As far as I understand it ONS are already saying 2020 deaths are at 20 year high, and this is still the beginning of it.
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