Coronavirus
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Ireland is nationalizing its healthcare system for the duration of the coronavirus crisis.
Health Minister Simon Harris says ‘there can be no room for public versus private’ healthcare during a pandemic,
The move follows a decision by Spain to do the same
While in the UK private hospitals have integrated into the NHS system
Probably, the USA will be forced to follow the route of nationalization or to reinstall the old new deal, they do not have any other choice because the whole health system is falling apart and probably, they would be forced to reinstate all the agencies, policies, and regulation that were eliminated. Several companies and agencies like Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Apples and workers unions are the ones providing equipment and medical supplies to the hospitals in the USA, due to the fact that they are running out supplies and equipment. This crisis has shown the dependency of the USA from Chinese importation
”I know David Icke might be a loon”
You can say that again.
In fact can’t we delete that video of his from this site. It’s a disgrace.
I just don’t believe the hysteria surrounding this Corona cult. Also I find it dubious that governments suddenly want to “Wrap Arms” around every worker.
In terms of mortality figures alone this whole con trick doesn’t make senseOzy
Look at it another way – if this is all a con trick why would the ruling class inflict such grievous damage on the economy for some unknown or vaguely defined objective? Why shoot themselves in the foot and incur astronomical losses in profits for the sake of achieving this supposed objective.? If anything doesn’t make sense it is that
The fact that celebrities , politicians and billionaires can succumb to the virus as easily as workers may be one reason for the scale of the official reaction. But more importantly, it may be because if governments are, as you say, suddenly wanting to “Wrap Arms” around every worker, it is because the material reality of the capitalist class’ total dependence on the workers gives them no other option but to do so. They need to protect the working class as the source of future profits. They dont want the geese that lays their golden eggs killed off in such large numbers
You refer to the mortality figures. Yes they are comparatively small compared to death toll resulting from flu. But you forget that it is early days yet. COVID-19 was only just discovered in December last year. The eventual death toll may well become much much higher than that of flu. Countries like China and South Korea have reduced the rate of increase in infections but ONLY because they have taken effective steps to limit the spread. In others by treating the virus as a serious threat.
The key variable is the mortality rate. There is no doubt that the mortality rate is significantly higher than flu. Granted it may not be as high as WHO originally thought – 3.4% – because quite a large number of people present only mild symptoms or are asymptomatic and may not realise they carry the virus. The best estimates to date for the proportion of asymptomatic carriers of the virus is about 50 percent of the people infected. But even allowing for this the mortality rate is still significant higher than flu and accordingly the eventual death toll could be much higher too.
Also, the virus has yet to make significant inroads in places like Africa. Though it is ironic that, to date, poor countries such as in Africa have fared comparatively better than rich countries – probably for reasons to do with mobility and relative isolation – this could change dramatically. I was looking at a programme on the situation in South Africa and the commentator made the point that given the extreme population density of the black townships outside cities like Cape Town, the virus, once it got a foothold , could spread like wildfire. Social distancing is almost impossible to effectively implement in these cramped circumstances.
Even in wealthier countries containment might become increasingly problematic beyond a certain tipping point if the number of cases grow to the point where they start to overwhelm the available resources. Furthermore the impact on the economy could be such that it begins to threaten basic supplies such as food and water causing people to take risks to secure these supplies (e,g panic buying in the shops and social protests on the street) and so risk spreading the virus further. It is a nightmarish prospect. China and South Korea have seemingly nipped this in the bud but we cannot be complacent about this. The vast majority of their populations have not been infected. Any relaxation of the measures they have adopted could precipitate a massive new wave of infections.
In the long run, only the development of a vaccine or a form of treatment using plasma can absolutely ensure the worst case scenario does not materialise. But a readily available vaccine is at least a year off from now even though human trials have already begun
Finally you mention Gordon Brown calling for a temporary Global Government. Brown is an idiot. There is no prospect of such a government being formed whatsoever. You only have to consider the deep animosities between leading capitalist powers like China and the US to see this. If anything globalisation has gone into reverse in recent years with the rise of populist nationalism. COVID-19 is accentuating this trend by closing borders.
There is of course the UN but the UN has always been a largely toothless tiger and a mere talking shop – not to say a front behind which the various rival capital powers pursue their own divergent interests. “World government” presupposes a degree of common interest which simply does not exist in reality
To be fair to David Icke though, if Michael Gove and his Daily Mail “journalist” wife, did in fact turn out to be flesh eating lizards, in human form, who would honestly be that surprised? To be honest if tests were done and they turned out to be human, I’d be more surprised.
Just heard that “reptile” Gove, who thanks to both Boris and the Health Secretary Hancock (another self-publicist) catching the virus has been able to step into the limelight, interpret the volunteers who have come forward to help the NHS (now 700,000) as being an expression of patriotic “national solidarity” rather than of simple human solidarity. But that’s par for the course from a rabid nationalist like him as well as being what the ruling class would like to turn it into.
Ozy is correct it is a load of bollocks
There are two example links below I have been following it and understand the science and statistics.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
I have been trying to post but nothing getting thro
I did a bit of epidemiology as part of my Open University Studies and have been doing a bit of number crunching, based on stuff I did back then.
The difficulty with the data is general lack of reliability and also lack of testing. However there are a couple of exceptions that can be used to further extrapolate information. Firstly South Korea, which carried out large scale testing and appears to have been reporting honestly and secondly the figures from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship where there was full testing and long scale monitoring.
There are a couple of issues. The first is that the demographics of the passengers and crew on the cruise ship were not representative of general demographics (generally older, some with long term health problems, although I would guess less very chronic illnesses and also although the crew were young, there were very few children). The second issue is that of hidden or asymptomatic cases. In South Korea the % of the population tested being less than the whole, the asymptomatic might not have been tested.
The plus side (certainly in the UK) is that using South Korea as a model is probably ok, as the demographic structure is quite similar to the UK one, see links below:
https://www.indexmundi.com/united_kingdom/age_structure.html
https://www.indexmundi.com/south_korea/age_structure.html
So using the figures from the Diamond Princess, which were as follows:
Total tests – 4061
Total Positives – 705
Asymptomatic Positives – 392
Total deaths to date – 11
The numbers of deaths to cases in this instance is perhaps not as important because of the previously mentioned demographic anomalies for the cruise ship, the number of asymptomatic cases, however is. Because everyone on the ship was tested we know that as far as can be ascertained this is a pretty accurate reflection of the level of asymptomatic infection for those on the ship. You could argue that in a younger demographic, asymptomatic infection might be less, but it is unlikely to be more, so this gives us a rate of asymptomatic infection of roughly 4/7ths of cases or possibly more.
Going back to South Korea, we have the advantage in this case of having a demographic which is closer to that of the UK. In South Korea, the death rate has been at about 1.3%, because of the difficulty with regards to the possibility of asymptomatic cases which haven’t been identified, the death rate is probably less than this, however it would probably be okay to use this as a base line higher limit.
Using all of this to examine the UK, the statistics we have in the UK are probably very unreliable in terms of cases and asymptomatic cases, due to lack of testing, etc. However we can use the death rate as a reasonably reliable source of information, if we look at the death rate in the UK (there are a number of caveats here as we don’t know what numbers of those currently infected will die) but as an informed guestimate, if we have 759 deaths in the UK, with a death rate of roughly 1.3% (from South Korea), then an estimated 58,384 people could have the infection of which 4/7ths will be asymptomatic (33,363).
In terms of the future, viruses tend to become less fatal as they spread, effectively a virus which kills its host is less likely to spread than one that is less deadly and it will progressively become the dominant strain. Very deadly viruses tend to “burn out” very quickly and don’t spread as intensively because of this, so it is likely that the death rate will reduce as time goes by. Similarly, treatments and interventions (not necessarily cures) will likely reduce the death rate over time. We certainly won’t get worse at looking after victims, but shortage of equipment might mean that victims don’t get the most effective treatments. On that basis we can estimate that, with a bit of luck the death rate will fall to about 0.5% or thereabouts, over time.
If we go back to figures from the Diamond Princess, 4061 tests were carried out for 705 positives, that means that nearly 5/6 of those on the ship didn’t acquire the virus, or were able to fight it off without infection. In some cases there were couples who shared the same living space for up to two weeks where one caught the virus and the other didn’t. We can guess from this that there is some percentage of the population that will not succumb to the infection.
If we could put this at 2/3 of the population, as another guestimate, we can start to work out when/if herd immunity might kick in and how many maximum deaths we can expect.
UK total population is 67,786,872, if only 1/3 are susceptible then that gives us roughly 22.5 million possible victims. However as the number of immune and non susceptible people increases the spread of the virus becomes less common, as it cannot find a host to act as a breeding ground. Once we get past about 70% it should be about there, so that gives us 15, 750,000 infections, with a death rate (being positive) of around 0.5%, so roughly about 315,000 deaths. Hopefully social distancing and all the other measures taking place can bring this number down significantly
A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment. (Daily updates below)
***
According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.
80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.
Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women.
The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.
The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).
The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.
(Update: The Italian National Institute of Health published a statistical report on test-positive patients and deceased, confirming the above data.)
The doctor also points out the following aspects:
Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which has already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.
South Korea, for instance, has experienced a much milder course than Italy and has already passed the peak of the epidemic. In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far. As in Italy, those affected were mostly high-risk patients.
The few dozen test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years, whose exact cause of death, i.e. from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases, is not yet known.
Furthermore, according to a first Chinese study, the internationally used virus test kits may give a false positive result in some cases. In these cases, the persons may not have contracted the new coronavirus, but presumably one of the many existing human coronaviruses that are part of the annual (and currently ongoing) common cold and flu epidemics. (1)
Thus the most important indicator for judging the danger of the disease is not the frequently reported number of positively-tested persons and deaths, but the number of persons actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality).
According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of the Covid-19 disease can be expected. Senior citizens and persons with existing chronic diseases should be protected. The medical capacities should be optimally prepared.
Medical literature
(1) Zhuang et al., Potential false-positive rate among the ‚asymptomatic infected individuals‘ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients, Chinese Medical Association Publishing House, March 2020.
(2) Grasselli et al., Critical Care Utilization for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, JAMA, March 2020.
(3) WHO, Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019, February 2020.
Reference values
Important reference values include the number of annual flu deaths, which is up to 8,000 in Italy and up to 60,000 in the US; normal overall mortality, which in Italy is up to 2,000 deaths per day; and the average number of pneumonia cases per year, which in Italy is over 120,000.
Current all-cause mortality in Europe and in Italy is still normal or even below-average. Any excess mortality due to Covid-19 should become visible in the European monitoring charts.
Winter smog (NO2) in Northern Italy in February 2020 (ESA)
Updates
March 17, 2020 (I)
- The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age.
- The younger test-positive deceased almost always had severe pre-existing conditions. For example, a 21-year-old Spanish soccer coach had died test-positive, making international headlines. However, the doctors diagnosed an unrecognized leukemia, whose typical complications include severe pneumonia.
- The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.
- In Switzerland, some emergency units are already overloaded simply because of the large number of people who want to be tested. This points to an additional psychological and logistical component of the current situation.
March 17, 2020 (II)
- Italian immunology professor Sergio Romagnani from the University of Florence comes to the conclusion in a study on 3000 people that 50 to 75% of the test-positive people of all ages remain completely symptom-free – significantly more than previously assumed.
- The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known.
- A hospital doctor in the Spanish city of Malaga writes on Twitter that people are currently more likely to die from panic and systemic collapse than from the virus. The hospital is being overrun by people with colds, flu and possibly Covid19 and doctors have lost control.
March 18, 2020
- A new epidemiological study (preprint) concludes that the fatality of Covid19 even in the Chinese city of Wuhan was only 0.04% to 0.12% and thus rather lower than that of seasonal flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1%. As a reason for the overestimated fatality of Covid19, the researchers suspect that initially only a small number of cases were recorded in Wuhan, as the disease was probably asymptomatic or mild in many people.
- Chinese researchers argue that extreme winter smog in the city of Wuhan may have played a causal role in the outbreak of pneumonia. In the summer of 2019, public protests were already taking place in Wuhan because of the poor air quality.
- New satellite images show how Northern Italy has the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, and how this air pollution has been greatly reduced by the quarantine.
- A manufacturer of the Covid19 test kit states that it should only be used for research purposes and not for diagnostic applications, as it has not yet been clinically validated.
Datasheet of Covid19 virus test kit
March 19, 2020 (I)
The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:
- The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
- 10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
- At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
- Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
- Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
- The National Health Institute hasn’t yet determined what the patients examined ultimately died of and refers to them in general terms as Covid19-positive deaths.
March 19, 2020 (II)
- A report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018. They had to postpone operations, call nurses back from holiday and ran out of blood donations.
- German virologist Hendrik Streeck argues that Covid19 is unlikely to increase total mortality in Germany, which normally is around 2500 people per day. Streeck mentions the case of a 78-year-old man with preconditions who died of heart failure, subsequently tested positive for Covid19 and thus was included in the statistics of Covid19 deaths.
- According to Stanford Professor John Ioannidis, the new coronavirus may be no more dangerous than some of the common coronaviruses, even in older people. Ioannidis argues that there is no reliable medical data backing the measures currently decided upon.
March 20, 2020
- According to the latest European monitoring report, overall mortality in all countries (including Italy) and in all age groups remains within or even below the normal range so far.
- According to the latest German statistics, the median age of test-positive deaths is about 83 years, most with pre-existing health conditions that might be a possible cause of death.
- A 2006 Canadian study referred to by Stanford Professor John Ioannidis found that common cold coronaviruses may also cause death rates of up to 6% in risk groups such as residents of a care facility, and that virus test kits initially falsely indicated an infection with SARS coronaviruses.
March 21, 2020 (I)
- Spain reports only three test-positive deaths under the age of 65 (out of a total of about 1000). Their pre-existing health conditions and actual cause of death are not yet known.
- On March 20, Italy reported 627 nationwide test-positive deaths in one day. By comparison, normal overall mortality in Italy is about 1800 deaths per day. Since February 21, Italy has reported about 4000 test-positive deaths. Normal overall mortality during this time frame is up to 50,000 deaths. It is not yet known to what extent normal overall mortality has increased, or to what extent it has simply turned test-positive. Moreover, Italy and Europe have had a very mild flu season in 2019/2020 that has spared many otherwise vulnerable people.
- According to Italian news reports, 90% of test-positive deceased in the Lombardy region have died outside of intensive care units, mostly at home or in general care sections. Their cause of death and the possible role of quarantine measures in their deaths remain unclear. Only 260 out of 2168 test-positive persons have died in ICUs.
- Bloomberg highlights that „99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says“
Italy test-positive deaths by prior illnesses (ISS / Bloomberg)
March 21, 2020 (II)
- The Japan Times asks: Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? Despite being one of the first countries getting positive test results and having imposed no lockdown, Japan is one of the least-affected nations. Quote: „Even if Japan may not be counting all those infected, hospitals aren’t being stretched thin and there has been no spike in pneumonia cases.“
- Italian researchers argue that the extreme smog in Northern Italy, the worst in Europe, may be playing a causative role in the current pneumonia outbreak there, as in Wuhan before.
- In a new interview, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society.
March 22, 2020 (I)
Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.
As Professors Ioannidis and Bhakdi have shown, countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19, while the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an extra polated mortality figure in the per mille range, i.e. at or below the level of the seasonal flu.
Current test-positive death figures in Italy are still less than 50% of normal daily overall mortality in Italy, which is around 1800 deaths per day. Thus it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a large part of normal daily mortality now simply counts as „Covid19“ deaths (as they test positive). This is the point stressed by the President of the Italian Civil Protection Service.
However, by now it is clear that certain regions in Northern Italy, i.e. those facing the toughest lockdown measures, are experiencing markedly increased daily mortality figures. It is also known that in the Lombardy region, 90% of test-positive deaths occur not in intensive care units, but instead mostly at home. And more than 99% have serious pre-existing health conditions.
Professor Sucharit Bhakdi has called lockdown measures „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“. Thus the extremely troubling question arises as to what extent the increased mortality of these elderly, isolated, highly stressed people with multiple pre-existing health conditions may in fact be caused by the weeks-long lockdown measures still in force.
If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause.)
Angelo Borrelli, head of the Italian Civil Protection Service, emphasizing the difference between deaths with and from coronaviruses.
March 22, 2020 (II)
- In Switzerland, there are currently 56 test-positive deaths, all of whom were „high risk patients“ due to their advanced age and/or pre-existing health conditions. Their actual cause of death, i.e. from or simply with the virus, has not been communicated.
- The Swiss government claimed that the situation in southern Switzerland (next to Italy) is „dramatic“, yet local doctors denied this and said everything is normal.
- According to press reports, oxygen bottles may become scarce. The reason, however, is not a currently higher usage, but rather hoarding due to fear of future shortages.
- In many countries, there is already an increasing shortage of doctors and nurses. This is primarily because healthcare workers testing positive have to self-quarantine, even though in many cases they will remain fully or largely symptom-free.
March 22, 2020 (III)
- A model from Imperial College London predicted between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths in the UK „from“ Covid-19, but the authors of the study have now conceded that many of these deaths would not be in addition to, but rather part of the normal annual mortality rate, which in the UK is about 600,000 people per year. In other words, excess mortality would remain low.
- Dr. David Katz, founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, asks in the New York Times: „Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.“
- According to Italian Professor Walter Ricciardi, „only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus“, whereas in public reports „all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus“. This means that Italian death figures reported by the media have to be reduced by at least a factor of 8 to obtain actual deaths caused by the virus. Thus one ends up with at most a few dozen deaths per day, compared to an overall daily mortality of 1800 deaths and up to 20,000 flu deaths per year.
March 23, 2020 (I)
- A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that „the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated“, since „the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France“.
- An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far.
- In a new fact sheet, the World Health Organization WHO reports that Covid-19 is in fact spreading slower, not faster, than influenza by a factor of about 50%. Moreover, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to be much lower with Covid-19 than with influenza.
- A leading Italian doctor reports that „strange cases of pneumonia“ were seen in the Lombardy region already in November 2019, raising again the question if they were caused by the new virus (which officially only appeared in Italy in February 2020), or by other factors, such as the dangerously high smog levels in Northern Italy.
- Danish researcher Peter Gøtzsche, founder of the renowned Cochrane Medical Collaboration, writes that Corona is „an epidemic of mass panic“ and „logic was one of the first victims.“
March 23, 2020 (II)
- Former Israeli Health Minister, Professor Yoram Lass, says that the new coronavirus is „less dangerous than the flu“ and lockdown measures „will kill more people than the virus“. He adds that „the numbers do not match the panic“ and „psychology is prevailing over science“. He also notes that „Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country.“
- Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.
- The President of the World Doctors Federation, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, argues thatlockdown measures as in Italy are „unreasonable“ and „counterproductive“ and should be reversed.
- Switzerland: Despite media panic, excess mortality still at or near zero: the latest testpositive „victims“ were a 96yo in palliative care and a 97yo with pre-existing conditions.
- The latest statistical report of the Italian National Health Institute is now available in English.
March 24, 2020
- The UK has removed Covid19 from the official list of High Consquence Infectious Diseases (HCID), stating that mortality rates are „low overall“.
- The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) admitted that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths“. The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.
- Beds in Swiss intensive care units reserved for Covid19 patients are still „mostly empty“.
- German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus“ and that „panic must end“.
- In Italy, overall national mortality of the 65+ age group until March 7 remained below the level of earlier years, especially due to the rather mild winter (see red line in chart below).
Italy: Overall mortality of 65+ age group (red) compared to earlier years (March 7, 2020 / MdS)
March 25, 2020
- German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the „authoritarian reaction“ of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called „corona deaths“ have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.
- The Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu. It is even possible that the Covid19 virus circulated already in earlier years, but wasn’t discovered because no one was looking for it. Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror“ created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.
- Professor Martin Exner, head of the Institute for Hygiene at the University of Bonn, explains in an interview why health personnel are currently under pressure, even though there has hardly been any increase in the number of patients in Germany so far: On the one hand, doctors and nurses who have tested positive have to be quarantined and are often hard to replace. On the other hand, nurses from neighbouring countries, who provide an important part of the care, are currently unable to enter the country due to closed borders.
- Professor Julian Nida-Ruemelin, former German Minister of State for Culture and Professor of Ethics, points out that Covid19 poses no risk to the healthy general population and that extreme measures such as curfews are therefore not justified.
- Using data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu. Moreover, a Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive passengers, and despite the high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among the 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all. This again raises the question whether the pre-existing diseases are not perhaps a more important factor than the virus itself. The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor.
March 26, 2020 (I)
- USA: The latest US data of March 25 shows a decreasing number of flu-like illnesses throughout the country, the frequency of which is now well below the multi-year average. The government measures can be ruled out as a reason for this, as they have been in effect for less than a week.
USA: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (March 25, 2020, KINSA)
- Germany: The latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute of March 24 documents a „nationwide decrease in activity of acute respiratory diseases“: The number of influenza-like illnesses and the number of hospital stays caused by them is below the level of previous years and is currently continuing to decline. The RKI continues: „The increase in the number of visits to the doctor () in adults cannot currently be explained either by influenza viruses circulating in the population or by SARS-CoV-2.“
Germany: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (20 March 2020, RKI)
- Italy: The renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
- UK: The authors of the British Imperial College study, who predicted up to 500,000 deaths, are again reducing their forecasts. After already admitting that a large proportion of test-positive deaths are part of normal mortality, they now state that the peak of the disease may be reached in two to three weeks already.
- UK: The British Guardian reported in February 2019 that already in the otherwise weak flu season 2018/2019 there were more than 2180 flu-related admissions to intensive care units in the UK.
- Switzerland: In Switzerland, the excess mortality due to Covid19 is apparently still zero. The latest „fatal victim“ presented by the media is a 100-year-old woman. Nevertheless, the Swiss government continues to tighten restrictive measures.
March 26, 2020 (II)
- Sweden: Sweden has so far pursued the most liberal strategy in dealing with Covid19, which is based on two principles: Risk groups are protected and people with flu symptoms stay at home. „If you follow these two rules, there is no need for further measures, the effect of which is only marginal anyway,“ said chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Social and economic life will continue normally. The big rush to hospitals has so far failed to materialize, Tegnell says.
- German criminal and constitutional law expert Dr. Jessica Hamed argues that measures such as general curfews and contact bans are a massive and disproportionate encroachment on fundamental rights of freedom and are therefore presumably „all illegal“.
- The British magazine OffGuardian reports on „12 experts questioning the corona virus panic“.
- In his famous book „The Plague“ (1947), French Nobel laureate in Literature Albert Camus wrote: „The only way to fight the plague is honesty.“
Albert Camus, The Plague (1947): „The only way to fight the plague is honesty.“
Yes we are selfish self-interested people who’d never risk our lives to help another [sarcasm]
The number of people who have volunteered to help the NHS in its fight against coronavirus has passed half a million, double the government’s recruitment target. The helpers are needed for delivering food and medicines, driving patients to appointments and phoning the isolated.
https://www.goodsamapp.org/nhs
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52029877
Outside this government initiative various mutual aid groups have sprung up
https://fortune.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-china-workers-businesses-pay-wages A growing number of China’s private companies have cut wages, delayed paychecks or stopped paying staff completely, saying that the economic toll of the coronavirus has left them unable to cover their labour costs.
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