I wonder if anyone more well-versed in economics here can comment on Extreme Value Theory. It was covered in a new magazine from the BBC called Knowledge.
Sounds a bit like prediction markets to me which basically incentivise outcomes.
“BBC Knowledge Magazine was first launched in North America in 2008 and is now also available in the United Kingdom. Published six times a year from Bristol, UK, it contains selected articles from the other BBC specialist titles Focus, BBC History and BBC Wildlife. Alongside fresh material this forms a vibrant new magazine.”