IPCC on Land

November 2024 Forums General discussion IPCC on Land

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    https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl-report-download-page/

    Sometimes, when I talk about planning, this report is the sort of thing I mean, a clear, concise inventorisation of the situation and how we could utilise resources:

    People currently use one quarter to one third of land’s potential net primary
    production10 for food, feed, fibre, timber and energy. Land provides the basis for many other
    ecosystem functions and services11, including cultural and regulating services, that are essential
    for humanity (high confidence). In one economic approach, the world’s terrestrial ecosystem
    services have been valued on an annual basis to be approximately equivalent to the annual global
    Gross Domestic Product12 (medium confidence). {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5, Figure SPM.1}

    […]

    Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen
    nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change,
    including increases in frequency and intensity of extremes, has adversely impacted food
    security and terrestrial ecosystems as well as contributed to desertification and land
    degradation in many regions (high confidence). {2.2, 3.2, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 5.1, 5.2, Executive
    Summary Chapter 7, 7.2}

    […]

    Future land use depends, in part, on the desired climate outcome and the
    portfolio of response options deployed (high confidence). All assessed modelled pathways
    that limit warming to 1.5ºC or well below 2°C require land-based mitigation and land-use
    change, with most including different combinations of reforestation, afforestation, reduced
    deforestation, and bioenergy (high confidence). A small number of modelled pathways
    achieve 1.5ºC with reduced land conversion (high confidence) and, thus, reduced
    consequences for desertification, land degradation, and food security (medium confidence).
    {2.6, 6.4, 7.4, 7.6; Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6; Figure SPM.4}

    Of course, the big headline grabber is:

    Consumption of healthy and sustainable diets presents major opportunities for reducing GHG
    emissions from food systems and improving health outcomes (high confidence). Examples of
    healthy and sustainable diets are high in coarse grains, pulses, fruits and vegetables, and nuts and
    seeds; low in energy-intensive animal-sourced and discretionary foods (such as sugary beverages);
    and with a carbohydrate threshold. Total mitigation potential of dietary changes is estimated as 1.8-
    GtCO2eq yr-1 by 2050 at prices ranging from 20-100 USD/tCO2 (medium confidence). This
    estimate includes reductions in emissions from livestock and soil carbon sequestration on spared land,
    but co-benefits with health are not taken into account. Mitigation potential of dietary change may be
    higher, but achievement of this potential at broad scales depends on consumer choices and dietary
    preferences that are guided by social, cultural, environmental, and traditional factors, as well as
    income growth. Meat analogues such as imitation meat (from plant products), cultured meat, and
    insects may help in the transition to more healthy and sustainable diets, although their carbon
    footprints and acceptability are uncertain. {5.5.2, 5.6.5} [from a different document].

     

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